243
FXUS62 KMHX 171752
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
152 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually sink S down the East Coast and
slowly slide offshore starting tonight. The next cold front
crosses the area late this weekend into Monday, which will
bring the next chance of rain. Behind this front mild high
pressure builds in through mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 12 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cool and dry

The upper low off the East Coast will continue to move out to sea as
the upper ridge to our west works its way across the Ohio Valley. At
the surface, high pressure will expand southward across the
southeast.

Our winds will be slightly less gusty with the high moving overhead,
but northerly gusts to 15-20 mph will remain possible through
today. This airmass is also pretty dry with inland dews not
expected to make it out of the 30s today (40s along coast).
Skies will be clear thanks to this lack of moisture and highs
will reach the mid- to upper-60s across the coastal plain and
low-60s at the beaches.

Tonight, upper level moisture will increase ahead of a deep trough
moving across the Plains, which will support high clouds streaming
in from the west late tonight/early Sunday morning. Although winds
across the coastal plain will decouple once again, this increase in
cloud cover during the second half of the night will put a stopper
in temps crashing as low as they did last night. Lows are forecast
to reach the low-40s inland, upper-40s near the coast, and 50s along
the OBX. If high clouds were to arrive later than currently
forecast, this will allow a longer period of radiational cooling and
open the door for temps to drop lower than currently forecast.
Moisture will be increasing but still won`t be enough for any fog to
develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 12:45 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

 - Dry, slightly warmer, not as windy

The upper ridge will move overhead and the surface high will start
to move offshore tomorrow, increasing heights across the area and
supporting warmer temps in the mid-70s across the coastal plain and
upper-60s to low-70s along the coast. Dews will rise through the day
as moisture increases ahead of the aforementioned trough approaching
from the west. Winds will be light with mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...

Key Messages...

- High pressure moves overhead and then offshore this weekend
  with above normal temps returning.

- Next chance of light rain expected late Sunday night through
  Monday morning as a cold front moves through

- Mild and dry conditions continue through mid next week

High pressure moves offshore Sunday signaling a return to above
normal conditions with highs approaching 80. The next chance of
rain will come late Sunday night into early Monday morning as a
quick moving and likely moisture-starved front moves across the
Southeast. Behind this front, mild high pressure builds in
through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sat/...
As of 1 PM Friday...VFR flight cats are expected through the
period. Clear skies will persist today with NW winds gusting to
10-15 kt inland and 15-20 kt along the coast. High clouds are
expected to move in from the west later tonight but the column
is too moisture starved to support any fog development.
Tomorrow, winds will be light with mostly sunny skies.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the
week with high pressure over the region. A cold front will bring
scattered showers late Sunday night and into Monday morning,
and there could be some brief flying restrictions as a result.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/...
As of 1:10 PM Friday...Marine conditions will improve through
tonight as winds continue to relax with high pressure moving
overhead. NW winds at 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt will
improve to 5-10 kt by late tonight. Tomorrow, winds will back to
the SW but remain at 5-10 kt. Seas are currently 6-8 ft at 10-11
seconds across the central and northern waters and 3-5 ft at
9-10 seconds across the southern waters. All coastal zones
should drop below 6 ft by late tonight/early tomorrow save for
the central waters.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...

Key Messages

 - Elevated seas remain across the coastal waters on Saturday
   due to an increase in long period swell

 - Another period of hazardous marine conditions are expected
   Sunday through Monday ahead of a quick moving cold front

Winds weaken Saturday to less than 10 kts, and will eventually
come around to the south late in the day. Winds turn SW Sunday
morning and strengthen to 15-25 kts ahead of a cold front. Winds
peak 20-30 kts Sunday night with strong Small Craft conditions
expected across most marine zones. Winds will turn to the NW
Monday behind the front at 10-20 kts, and then continue out of
the W/SW at 10-20 kts Tuesday.

Seas subside to 3-5 ft Saturday for all but the very outer
waters southeast of Cape Hatteras where 6 footers may remain.
Increasing seas are possible late Saturday as long period swell
arrives from a distant strong low pressure system over the North
Atlantic. Seas will likely increase to 5-6 ft for much of the
marine waters and 6-9 ft for the outer waters southeast of Cape
Hatteras. By Sunday seas increase to 6-10 ft as winds increase
ahead of a cold front, and then subside to 5-8 ft Monday, and
3-5 ft Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Fri...Persistent strong northerly winds will
continue through late today keeping the potential for minor
coastal flooding in the forecast.

Minor soundside flooding of up to 1 to 2 ft AGL will be possible
adjacent to the southeastern Pamlico Sound from around Avon
south to Core Sound due to the strong winds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/OJC
MARINE...SGK/OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX