108
FXUS62 KMHX 171912
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
312 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through Thursday resulting in dry and
warm conditions. Coastal troughing may bring some showers to
the region late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Mon...Warm day is hitting its peak this afternoon
over eastern North Carolina as mid-level ridge remains centered
overhead, while at the surface high pressure centered off the
coast of New England extends into the southeastern CONUS. Sea
breeze circulations are dominant along the coast but strong
subsidence from the aforementioned ridge is shutting the door on
any convective development. Dry forecast for today remains in
good shape.

Little change in the overall pattern for tonight. Skies will
clear overnight and light to calm winds inland will lead to a
favorable radiational cooling setup. Min Tds this afternoon
reached well into the low 60s and nudged forecast lows close to
this benchmark. Retained upper 60s to low 70s along the coast
where winds will likely remain elevated and keep low-levels
mixed. Overall column looks to be too dry to support a
mentionable fog threat, although very patchy ditch fog cannot be
ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 310 PM Mon...Pattern of warm but dry conditions carries
into tomorrow as core of the upper high shifts northward. This
will keep the most intense heat displaced from our area, but
warm conditions will once again prevail. Highs range tomorrow
from the low 90s inland to mid 80s along the coast.
Predominantly easterly winds in the morning will give way to
dominant sea and sound breeze circulations in the afternoon.
Still relatively dry for mid to late June as Tds drop into the
upper 50s, resulting in RHs in the 35-40% range across the inner
coastal plain. This will pose a continued fire weather
risk...see the FIRE WEATHER section for more.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Pleasant but dry weather through mid week,
then heat and humidity build at the end of the week through the
weekend. Small chances for showers and perhaps a few storms
Friday into the weekend.

Tuesday through Thursday...Strong ridging will build over the
eastern US through mid- week, which will bring cont rain- free
weather. The core of the ridging will remain north of ENC
initially, and thus keeping the intense heat to the north across
the Mid Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeast. For ENC, easterly
flow is expected, which will keep conditions tempered, and in
fact quite pleasant. Highs expected in the mid-upr 80s interior,
to low 80s OBX. In addition, TD`s will be very tolerable, and
remain in the 60s. This will bring cool nights to the region,
with lows in the 60s away from the immediate coast, to low 70s
beaches and OBX zones.

Friday through the Weekend...There are still notable
differences in the long range models, but the consensus is that
weak low pres will develop east of the Bahamas and move west
towards the Southeast Coast (FL/GA). Center of upr ridge will
slide eastward a bit with a weakness allowing for some weak mid
level troughing, and allowing for more of a serly to srly flow
to develop and bring inc heat and humidity starting late this
work week into the weekend. PoPs remain low, though by Fri into
the weekend, some chance of a return to typical afternoon/early
evening sea breeze convection. Pops remain at only 20-30%, as
no strong forcing feature is noted on med range ensembles. Temps
will be on the rise, into the 90s Fri into the weekend. TD`s
will rise steadily as well, and a potential for heat indices
into the upr 90s to low 100s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Tue/...
As of 145 PM Monday...VFR conditions prevail across the
terminals this afternoon as sprawling high pressure off the mid-
Atlantic coast extends over the southeastern CONUS. Few to sct
cu field this afternoon will be short lived, giving way to clear
skies and nearly calm winds overnight. Column appears too dry
to support fog formation and kept this out of the TAFs, but some
offshore strato-cu could drift onshore overnight, bringing
potential MVFR cigs to primarily OBX locations.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...VFR conditions expected through the period
with high pressure remaining dominant through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Tonight and Tuesday/...
As of 2 AM Monday...Benign boating conditions expected to
continue through tomorrow as high pressure remains in control
over the waters. Regional observations show southeast to
easterly winds of around 10 mph with seas of 3-4 feet, and this
will change little tomorrow. Winds will be a couple knots
stronger tomorrow, which may encourage more widespread 4 foot
seas across area waters. Still, marine headlines are not
expected through the short term period.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Sub- SCA through the period with high pressure
anchored to the north of ENC. Light to moderate erly flow of
10-15 kt, ocnl gusts to 20 kt expected. Seas will generally be
2-4 ft through mid week. Low pres will develop east of the
Bahamas this week and approach the SE Coast (FL/GA) by mid week.
Some higher swell may approach and seas possibly exceeding 6 ft
Wed night into Thu for the ctrl/srn waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 310 PM Mon...A dry airmass will be in place through mid
week, with minimum RH in the 30s and 40s percent, especially
away from the coast. This will overlap with breezy E winds at
times, and is noteworthy for any ongoing, or planned, fires.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...TL/MS
FIRE WEATHER...MHX