695
FXUS62 KMHX 071335
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
935 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added the Neuse River to the Small Craft Advisory through this
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Return to more seasonable September temps for the beginning
of the week with a warming trend developing late week ahead of
the next front.

2) The next front will impact the area late week and this weekend,
with a return to unsettled weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will
continue to build southeastward today, becoming centered over
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Tuesday, before sliding offshore
Wed. This will keep a cooler/drier NE-E flow over the area, with
seasonable temps for early September and feeling much more
comfortable, with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s/low
70s. Temps will begin to warm mid to late week as southerly flow
re-develops ahead of the next front. Isolated coastal showers
will be possible today, with bulk of activity remaining
offshore. Mostly dry weather will then prevail through mid week
with drier air in place.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next front will approach the area late week,
possibly stalling over the area into the weekend. This will lead
to increasing precip chances Fri and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. NE-ENE wind
gusts 15-20 kt this afternoon.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook (Tue through Fri): High pressure will build in from the
north through mid week, with pred VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
NE winds are overperforming current forecast and updated the
forecast blending several of the HiRes models that have the
strongest winds (HRRR/RAP/ARW). Latest obs show NE-ENE winds
15-25 kt with seas 3-5 ft. Winds are expected to continue to
increase this morning and peak this afternoon before gradually
diminishing tonight into Tuesday. Also, added the Neuse and Bay
Rivers to the SCA with gusts already approaching 25 kt at the
Oriental WxFlow station. SCAs also continue for the coastal
waters and Pamlico Sound into tonight and Tue. Seas will build
to to 4-8 ft today, highest across the outer waters, subsiding
to 4-7 ft Tue morning.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): Winds and seas will begin to ease
Tuesday and Wed as high pressure builds in. SW winds 5-15 kt
return Wed night and Thu with seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135-
     137.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...CQD/SK/CEB