712
FXUS62 KMHX 091143
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
643 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep east across the area late tonight, with
a reinforcing front following Monday night. High pressure then
returns for the middle to latter half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 0145 Sunday...Warm front has lifted N of the area with
strongest convection pushing N of the FA. Scattered showers
remain possible through rest of the overnight but activity is
expected to wane in the early morning hours just before sunrise.

An upper level shortwave will translate east across the Upper
Midwest through tonight. Well ahead of this feature,
strengthening southerly flow will allow a warm front to lift
north through the Carolinas. Increasing warm/moist advection
along the advancing boundary should be supportive of scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing from south to north after
sunset. Despite nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer,
increasing moisture aloft should allow a plume of modest
elevated instability to develop in the presence of 40-50kt
effective deep layer shear. The lack of stronger instability,
plus only modest forcing, should limit the risk of strong to
severe thunderstorms tonight. However, if any stronger/more
sustained core can be maintained, there could be a low- end risk
of small hail.

ENC is expected to be warm-sectored for much of the day today,
with warm low-mid level temps aloft leading to a moderate to
strong capping inversion. This plus a lack of appreciable
forcing is expected to limit the risk of daytime convection. The
one exception is along the developing seabreeze in the
afternoon, as some short term guidance suggest this may support
a late-day risk of isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario
appears unlikely, the combination of MLCAPE of 500-1000j/kg and
50kt+ deep layer shear could support a marginal severe
thunderstorm risk just inland of the seabreeze (primarily a wind
risk). Of note, machine learning guidance has backed off some
on the severe potential, but continues to show a low- end
signal. We`ll continue to monitor this potential should greater
instability and/or stronger forcing be realized. For now,
carrying a dry forecast during daylight hours, but have raised
PoPs in the seabreeze area to just below mentionable (PoP<15).

Otherwise, it is expected to be breezy and unusually warm for
early November, with highs warming into the mid to upper 70s
just ahead of the seabreeze. OBX capped MaxTs in the upper 60s
to low 70s thanks to the cooling shelf waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 0220 Sunday...Front enters the FA from the W around
midnight with nearly meridional flow from midlevel up as upper
low digs S across Great Lakes and Indiana, pushing upward leg of
trough aloft across the Wern half of NC through the overnight.
Convective precip is expected ahead of the boundary as it races
across the FA. Some instability will remain from this
afternoon`s heating and the ample speed and directional sheer
will keep a chance of more organized cells to carry some threat
of damaging wind gusts with a lower, but non-zero threat, of
hail. Temp gradient will be tight behind the front with burst of
initial CAA leading to temps cooling into the mid 40s over the
Coastal Plain in the early morning hours, low to mid 50s coast.
Precip wanes from W to E in the early morning hours, but not
directly behind the front as moisture still streaming in from
the S above the frontal inversion will lead to some stratiform
rain expected behind the front. This light rain could linger
into Monday Morning along the portions of the Inner and Outer
Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 0245 Sunday...

Key Messages

 - The coldest air of the season arrives Monday night into
   Tuesday.
 --- Freeze Watch has been issued for all of Mainland ENC
 --- Nonzero chance for wintry mix for Nern-most zones

A strong northern stream trough will move to the East Coast
Monday, bringing the coldest airmass of the season thus far.
Behind Sunday night`s cold front, strong CAA and gusty NW winds
will develop on Monday, with MaxTs in the mid 50s and MaxT
perhaps failing to reach the 50 degree mark on Tuesday. For
Tuesday, especially, this would be more than 15 degrees below
normal for this time of year. Lows on Monday night are expected
to drop below freezing with upper 20s to lower 30s across most
inland areas and SWern zones away from the water, and mid 30s
to around 40 along the coast. I would like to see clearer skies
through more of the overnight, especially right around/after
sunset when we typically get the cratering of SFC temps, but
some midlevel cloud coverage streaming from SW to NE over the FA
could spoil this potential. However, the clouds are not expected
through the entire overnight period and I still think the
airmass carries a great chance of subFreezing Mins. This cloud
coverage represents an area of low- mid level moisture beneath
the upper low which, in conjunction with a stout embedded
midlevel shortwave traversing the region, may support a brief
period of light rain showers transitioning to light snow showers
along the HWY 264 corridor late Monday night into early Tuesday
morning. Several ensemble members from both the Canadian and
the ECMWF show this potential, select regional models, as well
as the blended guidance from the NBM. The forecast will continue
to reflect this potential, but at this time, no impacts are
expected with accumulations expected to be minimal.

The high pressure axis will slide offshore late Tuesday with SW
return flow developing, which may keep temps from dropping
quite as cool Tuesday night, but with light winds and clear
skies, areas that decouple could drop below freezing once again.

High pressure remains centered across SECONUS Wednesday with
southerly flow bringing warming temperatures, but still 5-10
degrees below normal with highs in the lower 60s. A mid level
shortwave pushes across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night with an
attendant sfc trough/front pushing through the area, however
the airmass remains very dry and don`t expect much in the way of
clouds, let alone precip, with this system. Deep westerly
downslope flow ahead of ridging sliding across Sern CONUS will
actually bring a few degrees of warming temps on Thursday with
highs expected in the mid 60s. High pressure builds into the
area Friday before sliding offshore first half of the weekend with
highs in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 7 AM Sun...The area will be in the warm sector today ahead
of an approaching strong cold front. Low clouds will clear out
slowly this morning, and some brief MVFR conditions may
return. VFR conditions will continue through the day and into
this evening with increasing SW winds. By tonight, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front as it
moves across NC, with additional low level moisture pooling
ahead of the front as well. This will likely lead to at least
MVFR ceilings developing around midnight and lingering for most
of the overnight hours before drier air clears out clouds from
SW to NE early tomorrow morning. With convection possible, there
will also be a risk for temporary IFR conditions developing.

Outlook: Behind a strong cold front early next week, mostly VFR
conditions are anticipated with much cooler and drier air
moving in.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 0245 Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Thunderstorms possible tonight through Sunday night

 - Gale Watches issued for all coastal waters and PamSound
   Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon

 - Elevated to moderate marine impacts likely to last through
   mid- week with another period of brief Gales possible over
   outer coastal waters WED afternoon

Southerly winds build through the day accompanied by a risk of
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will peak Sunday this afternoon
and evening ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
During this time, southerly winds of 10- 20kt are expected, with
occasional gusts to 25kt possible over the warmest coastal
waters. Seas of 2-3ft build to 3-5ft by this evening.

A strong cold front moves through early MON morning with winds
flipping around to the NW behind it by sunrise Monday. The
strongest post- frontal winds arrive late Monday into Monday
night as a reinforcing cold front moves through with renewed
mixing and a strong pressure gradient. Probabilistic and
deterministic guidance continue to show a strong signal for
20-30kt winds, with frequent gusts of 30-35kt. Gale watch has
been issued late Monday into Tuesday afternoon. Another brief
period of Gales possible second half of Wed. Either way, SCA
conditions will be in play through the middle of the week. Seas
of 6-10ft are expected Monday night into Tuesday. This may be
followed by a renewed surge of southerly winds on Wednesday,
with seas peaking as high as 5-9ft south of Cape Hatteras.

Winds and seas finally begin to lay down by Thursday as high
pressure builds over SECONUS eventually sliding off the coast
first half of the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon
     for AMZ135-150.
     Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon
     for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...CEB