204
FXUS62 KMHX 300700
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and warm today ahead of a backdoor cold front. A dry
backdoor cold front will push through tonight bringing near
normal temps with continued dry conditions over the weekend.

2) Next rain chance arrives by mid next week with a low
pressure system moving out of the Deep South.

Marine: The backdoor front will bring a surge of northerly SCA
winds and seas tonight into Saturday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure remains centered over the Mid-
Atlantic with a coastal trough off the coast. The high is
supplying calm winds and clear skies, allowing for areas of
dense fog to develop. This fog will be around through the AM
commute today, and will contemplate a DFA to account for this
over the next several hours.

Hts/thicknesses build further today and temps climbing back to
~10 degrees above climo with highs upr 70s to near 80 inland to
low 70s OBX. A reinforcing back door dry cool front will push
through tonight bringing temps down closer to climo (low 70s
most locales) over the weekend. Low temps will also remain above
normal through much of the period with readings in the 50s.
Normal lows for most of the FA are in the 45-50 range now.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pres ridge finally begins to break down by
Tuesday and esp Wednesday as next potential low pres area and
cold front make it`s way into the region on active sub tropical
jet. Some convergence on timing with the 30/00Z model suite with
pops inc a bit during the mid week time frame. This system
appearsit will finally bring beneficial widespread rain to the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Inc dense fog/LIFR conditions overnight for most interior taf
sites as REFS guidance show around 50-70% probabilities for
<1/2 sm, and obs indicate this is becoming more likely, so have
this in fcst through 13-14z. The fog should mix out mid to late
morning Friday with pred VFR conditions and light and variable
winds.

Outlook (Sat through Tue): Expect VFR conditions expected over
the weekend into early next week as a backdoor cold front pushes
through the area Friday night and strong high pressure builds
in from the north over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued SCA for coastal waters starting tonight with surge of
nrly winds. Oncly ocnl gusts and brief on the sounds and
Alligator so will exclude from suire of SCA. Winds and seas
diminish Sat night.

Outlook (Fri night through Tuesday): A backdoor cold front will
push across the waters Friday night with SCA conditions likely
returning across the coastal waters, diminishing Sat night. Conditions
gradually improve early next week, though next rounds of high
seas as early as Tue with next system approaching from the s and
w.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...SK/TL