Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
453 FXUS62 KMHX 130813 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 413 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled pattern expected through Monday 2) Warm and mostly dry conditions expected for much of next week with high draped over the Southern U.S. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The environment today looks similar to yesterday`s. However, deep layer shear is forecast to be ever-so-slightly higher, which may allow a slightly improved storm organization potential and perhaps a slightly better chance of a few storms reaching severe, or near- severe, levels. The primary risk should be strong winds, but perhaps some hail can occur in the tallest, most sustained, cores. The focus for convection should be the seabreeze and an inland trough. The low-level flow may veer to southwesterly, helping keep the seabreeze less progressive compared to today, and storms may not be as progressive. With a high PWAT airmass still in place, this could allow a slight bump up in the risk for urban and poor drainage flooding, with at least a low-end risk of flash flooding. The best chance for storms appear to be east of hwy 17 closer to the coast, where instability will be the highest. Further inland we should remain relatively stable, reducing shower/tstorm chances. Finally, a cold front will sweep south through the area on Monday. Guidance continues to trend on the slower side with the passage, and now this sets up the potential for the front to move through in the afternoon/evening hours. This will be something to watch as deep layer shear is forecast to be higher (~30kt), and may support a strong/severe thunderstorm risk conditional on sufficient instability being realized. KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper level ridging quickly rebuilds across the Southern U.S. next week. Meanwhile, a notably strong surface high will nose south along the lee of the Appalachians. Synoptically this is a very dry pattern for the region. Despite warming low-level thicknesses beneath the ridge, the northeasterly flow around the high should help to hold temps down some. Additionally, the airmass will be drier with less humidity, making it feel not as hot. It will feel a little more like fall, especially at night and in the morning. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... In the wake of the earlier scattered showers, another round of MVFR to IFR cigs appears likely this morning. For now, stratus is favored over BR/FG. The TAFs will continue to show as low as IFR, esp wrn TAF sites. Low CIG should scatter out and eventually rise to VFR conditions between 15-16z. Another risk of scattered showers Sun afternoon for coastal terminals with some producing gusty winds, but main threat is heavy rain. Outlook (Sunday through Thursday): Drier air begins to move in Sunday night behind cold front, but reinforcing cold front brings more showers or some storms on Monday, then dry Tuesday. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail through mid-week. && .MARINE... South winds of 10-15kt are common across most waters this morning. Meanwhile, seas are generally 2-3ft at 5-7s. These conditions are expected to last through today as the overall weather pattern remains about the same. There will continue to be a risk of thunderstorms during this time as well. Winds will become westerly Sunday night and lay down to 5- 15kt for a short time before Monday`s front brings in a stronger northerly surge. Outlook: Stronger northerly winds then develop from north to south across all waters Monday afternoon and evening as a reinforcing cold front moves through. The northerly surge of wind is expected to be accompanied by an increased risk of 20-30kt winds. Marine headlines will likely be needed for a portion of the waters Monday into Monday night for the increased winds. For the coastal waters, seas will quickly build to 5-8ft with the northerly wind surge. Guidance suggests an extended period of northeasterly winds and elevated seas, and marine headlines may be needed for much of the upcoming week for the nearshore coastal waters for 6ft+ seas. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/RJ AVIATION...RM/RJ MARINE...RM/RJ