966
FXUS62 KMHX 172243
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
643 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure then builds in through Thursday with oppressive heat
and humidity. A cold front moves through Thursday night. High
pressure ridge builds back in late weekend through early next
week with mainly dry conditions but dangerous heat and humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 630 PM Tuesday...Fcst has trended drier this evening
as shallow sea breeze is struggling to initiate convection. A
collision of boundaries in the very near future near New Bern
will locally increase the chances of showers/tstorms in the New
Bern vicinity, but besides that coverage will be isolated at
best. Shortwave moving through NC will lift northward as it
approaches ENC, with the best forcing missing us all together.
This has decreased precip chances after 00Z, and we should
remain dry after midnight.


Previous Discussion...As of 3 PM Tue...Moderate to strong
(4,000-5,000 J/KG) instability has developed this afternoon.
However, lack of appreciable lifting mechanism hasn`t allowed
storms to realize the full potential of this instability, with
as of yet the only lift occurring on the seabreeze. Further
west, a subtle shortwave is moving east from ctrl NC and will
move into ENC by this evening. A short window for marginally
severe organized storms may come to fruition between 5-9pm as
the shortwave is over the coastal plains. NCAR NN convective
probs for severe wind are in the 15-20% range owing to a brief
slight uptick in deep layer shear (~20 kt) this evening with the
shortwave.

Later this evening, any storms will diminish in coverage and
should be storm-free after around midnight, with dry albeit
very muggy conditions thereafter. Lows well above climo, in the
mid 70s interior to 75-80 coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tue...Main concern will shift to oppressive and
potentially dangerous heat and humidity on Wed as building ridge
brings increasing heat. With recent rains, the bndry layer will
cont to be quite moist with high TD`s. Temps will be a couple
degrees higher as well, and put areas of ENC in the 105 degree
range for heat indices Wed afternoon, which is the criteria for
heat advisory. Because heat index vals will be marginal, will
let later shifts decide on heat headlines, but if temps and/or
dewpoints are higher than they currently are, then a heat adv
would likely be warranted.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330AM Tue...

Key Messages:

- Impactful heat on Thursday.

- Weakening cold front will bring a threat for a few isolated
  strong thunderstorms Thursday evening

- Potential for dangerous heat indices late this weekend and
  into early next week

Thu into early next week...Upper ridging will be anchored off
the Southeast Coast on Wednesday with a neutrally tilted upper
trough in the Plains progressing E`wards. Ridging should push
further away from the coast on Thurs and Fri as the
aforementioned upper trough continues E`wards and pushes into
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. At the same time, mid level
shortwave will push E`wards from the Plains and eventually track
across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Thurs night into Fri
riding along this upper troughing. Troughing quickly pushes off
the coast on Sat and is replaced by a "heat dome" as strong
upper and surface ridging builds over the eastern half of the
CONUS with this ridging not moving much through early next week
once it becomes established.

At the surface, low pressure in the Midwest will track NE`wards
into eastern Canada on Thurs/Fri while its associated cold
front tracks east eventually pushing into the Carolinas Thurs
evening, finally pushing offshore Fri morning. Prior to the
frontal passage, expect a chance for some isolated seabreeze
thunderstorms just inland from the coast on Wed. Hot and humid
conditions are also forecast across ENC on Wed and Thurs with
temps each day reaching the low to mid 90s, with mid to upper
80s noted along the OBX and immediate coast. Combined with
dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices across ENC will likely reach
100-110 each day bringing the first chance at seeing heat
advisory criteria. Regardless of heat advisory issuance, given
the extended period of hot and humid temps Wed/Thurs and lack of
respite from the heat overnight Wed, there is a significant
risk for heat related illnesses especially for those without
proper cooling or adequate hydration.

In addition to this, as the previously mentioned cold front
approaches from the west on Thurs, a surface trough will
develop along the Coastal Plain and allow for for organized
thunderstorm activity to develop along out ahead of this front
with precip chances quickly increasing from west to east Thurs
evening. With hot and humid conditions in place, instability
will build with SBCAPE values reaching 2000-3000 J/kg by Thurs
afternoon. In addition to this, deep layer shear around 25-35
kts should promote a threat for some isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail being the
primary concern within the strongest storms.

Afterwards front pushes offshore ending the shower and
thunderstorm threat from west to east Fri morning. Upper and
surface ridging builds over the Eastern CONUS and while Fri/Sat
may be the coolest days of the week, dangerous heat returns to
ENC Sun into Mon next week with the first significant heat wave
potentially impacting the Eastern Seaboard during this
timeframe. EFI probs do show anomalous heat and wouldn`t be
surprised if we saw continued above Avg temps Sun/Mon. Daily
sea breeze thunderstorm chances will be possible Fri/Sat and
Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 630 PM Tue...Storm coverage will be isolated at best
through the rest of the evening. Model suites are suggesting
high confidence VFR conditions tonight, so will keep TAFs VFR
through the period. Recent rainfall having saturating the
lowest levels, some low stratus may develop, which the models
aren`t keying in on. Any  For this reason, including sct010 for
all TAF sites early morning tomorrow, lack of confidence
prevents me from going predominant sub-VFR. Conditions will have
to be monitored closely in case flight conditions do end up
deteriorating. Elevated winds should keep any fog away.

Wednesday, isolated sea breeze convection can bring some showers
and thunderstorms in the vicinity of TAF terminals. Chances
remain low (15-25%), so will keep VCTS out of TAFs for now, and
possibly will include VCTS in future updates.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330AM Tue...Primarily VFR conditions expected across the
terminals starting on Wed as a more summer like pattern returns
to the area. A weak cold front will push through the area on
Thursday evening, once again bringing a second brief threat for
sub-VFR conditions and thunderstorm chances to ENC Thursday
evening and overnight. Afterwards, ridging builds into the aera
keeping any sub-VFR threat relegated to seabreeze thunderstorm
activity each afternoon from Fri into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wed/...
As of 3 PM Tue...Swrly winds of 5-15 kt cont today and will be
the case tonight. A few gusts to 25kt will be possible in the
areas that are typically impacted by the strongest thermal
gradient (Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds). On Wed, the thermal
grad increases due to hotter pattern, and thus SCA winds are
likely in the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds as wind gusts
approach 30 kt. Surrounding coastal waters will see winds as
well, but a bit more marginal during the afternoon tomorrow, so
will hold off on headlines for the coastal waters attm.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night though Saturday/...
As of 330AM Tue... Then as we get into Thursday with the
approach of a cold front the gradient pinches allowing for winds
to once again increase to 15-25 kts across most waters this
time. In addition to this, showers and thunderstorms will also
be possible with the frontal passage Thurs night into Fri
morning. This will bring multiple chances at SCA conditions both
Wed and Thurs. Once front pushes offshore on Fri, winds ease
for the weekend down to 5-10 kts becoming W-NW`rly behind the
front Fri then S`rly by Sat evening as ridging builds into the
area. Seas remain around 3-5 ft through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to midnight EDT
     Wednesday night for AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RJ
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RCF/OJC
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...TL/RCF