549
FXUS62 KMHX 150628
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
128 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our south will build offshore through
Sunday in advance of a dry cold front. Cooler high pressure builds
back in from the northwest early this week, with another quick
moving front pushing through the area by mid-week. Behind this
system, high pressure builds in from the north through the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1 AM Saturday...Mid-level cloud cover has overspread ENC
through as of early Saturday morning amidst a weak, low-level
warm air advection regime. This cloud cover has brought mostly
cloud to overcast skies that have largely limited radiational
cooling across the area so far this evening. While some clearing
may occur over the next few hours, especially inland, lows are
likely to remain on a touch warmer than previously forecast,
with temperatures likely dropping to only the mid-40s.

Meanwhile, a developing backdoor cold front will drop southward
along the mid-Atlantic coastline through this morning. While this
front will remain to the north, it will cause the pressure gradient
to briefly tighten, with winds strengthening for a few hours this
morning before leveling off through the afternoon. Highs will reach
the low-70s under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1 AM Saturday...A stronger area of low pressure will then
track across southern Canada through Sunday, bringing
strengthening southwesterly winds to the area before a dry cold
front pushes through ENC late Sunday. Temperatures will remain
above normal on Sunday prior to this cold frontal passage, with
highs in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1 AM Saturday...

Dry conditions will continue Monday and Tuesday, with high pressure
building in behind Sunday`s cold frontal passage. Highs are forecast
to be near 60 Monday, rising to the low-to-mid 60s Tuesday, with
lows in the mid-to-upper 30s (mid-to-upper 40s beaches).

The next front will impact the area Tuesday night, bringing only
slight chance of rain. Dry high pressure then builds back into
the region, bringing pleasant weather Wednesday-Friday, with
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

A stronger frontal system may impact the area late week
into early next weekend, though some timing differences still
remain this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period.

 - LLWS early this morning and again tonight.

Sfc high pressure slides south of the area through today with a
dry cold front approaching the area tonight. Expect VFR
conditions to prevail with periods of mid and high clouds
across rtes at times, mainly above 8k ft. A mid level shortwave
pushing across the Mid-Atlantic early this morning will bring a
strengthening low level jet and LLWS will be possible between
08-13z this morning. A stronger mid-level shortwave and
attendant cold front approach the area tonight with a stronger
low level jet developing during the evening and persisting
through the rest of the overnight.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected to continue through Wednesday.
A dry cold front will push across rtes Sunday with high
pressure building in Monday into Tuesday. Another cold front
with limited moisture is progged to approach the area Tuesday
night and cross rtes on Wednesday. Cigs with both systems
expected to remain AOA 4k ft.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

- Multiple periods of hazardous marine conditions expected this
  weekend

 1.) Small Craft conditions expected to develop across the
coastal waters early Saturday morning through early Saturday
afternoon as SW winds increase to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30
kts. Occasional gusts to 25 kts will also be possible across the
Pamlico Sound.

 2.) Gale conditions develop across the central and southern
coastal waters Saturday night through most of Sunday with strong
Small Craft conditions developing elsewhere. SCA conditions are
expected to persist into Sunday night.

As of 1 AM Saturday, winds across area waters are generally
10-15 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts. A developing backdoor cold
front to the north will sag southward off the Mid-Atlantic coast
over the next few hours, causing the pressure gradient across
the region to tighten slightly. This will lead to an uptick from
north to south in west-southwesterly winds starting early
Saturday morning and lasting through the late morning. Winds
will increase to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts over the coastal
waters. Winds will be slightly weaker over the sounds and inland
rivers, largely remaining below SCA criteria. Occasional gusts
to 25 kts will be possible for portions of the Pamlico Sound,
however.

Winds briefly relax this afternoon and into the early evening
before the pressure gradient again tightens in response to an
area of low pressure working its way eastward across southern
Canada. Winds will increase rapidly, this time from south to
north, with SCA to Gale conditions possible for all waters
except the Neuse/Bay/Pamlico/Pungo Rivers. Winds will peak
Saturday night at 25-30 kts with gusts of 30-40 kts for the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet (winds 20-25 kts with
gusts of 25-35 kts for the northern coastal waters, Alligator
River, and Pamlico/Ablemarle/Croatan/Roanoke Sounds).

A dry cold front then pushes through the area Sunday
afternoon/evening, bringing a shift in wind direction from
southwesterly to northwesterly. This front will bring another
surge in winds that will allow SCA conditions to linger through
Sunday night. Winds then drop to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts
on Monday as high pressure begins to build into the area again.

Seas of 2-4 ft will increase to 3-5 ft through this morning.
Seas then remain steady through the day before increasing to
6-10 ft tomorrow night, and remaining at this strength through
Sunday morning. Seas begin to subside Sunday afternoon, becoming
2-5 ft by late Monday morning.

Outlook: SW winds return late Tuesday before another dry cold
front moves through the waters Wednesday, bringing another shift
to northerly winds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Monday
     for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ152-
     154.
     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to noon EST
     today for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...ZC