923
FXUS62 KMHX 222315
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
715 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Erin will continue to move east, farther out to sea
tonight, although significant coastal impacts will continue
across parts of the Outer Banks through this evening. High
pressure builds in through Saturday. A weak coastal low may
bring light rain on Sunday, with high pressure reestablishing
itself next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 7 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Significant coastal impacts from Hurricane Erin will continue
  through this evening along the Outer Banks

- Dry, slightly cooler, and less humid

No significant changes to the forecast since the previous
update. Diurnal Cu field is finally dissipating as the sun sets
this evening with debris cirrus from thunderstorms and rain well
to our south now streaming in from the south and west. Rather
comfortable conditions are noted this evening with temps
generally in the upper 70s to low 80s as of this update.

High pressure will build into the area through tonight as
Hurricane Erin continues to move east away from the NC coast.
Winds will remain out of the north/northeast this afternoon and
steadily subside as the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds remain
light overnight and shift more easterly with seasonably cooler
temperatures as low temperatures fall into the low 60s inland to
low 70s along the coast and Outer Banks. Despite winds possibly
decoupling inland, dew point depressions should prevent fog or
low stratus formation.

Although Hurricane Erin will get progressively farther away
from our coast tonight, expect continued elevated water levels
from large swells and higher than normal astronomical tides
impacting compromised dune structures, especially along Outer
Banks Dare County. Additional coastal impacts are expected
farther south as well (see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD section for
details).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...Weak high pressure will move off the mid-
Atlantic coast on Saturday, effectively shifting the surface
winds more easterly. Expect a partly sunny Saturday with sunny
skies and temps warming into the mid 80s areawide, a few degrees
below climatology for mid/late August. Skies become more cloudy
from south to north during the afternoon as a weak boundary
lifts north towards the southern coastal waters, though have
kept showers off the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...

Sunday...Weak low pres may zip up the Southeastern Seaboard the
end of the weekend, bringing some rain to the coast. Best
chances for rain are the coastal counties, where pops are in the
50-70% range, with much lesser chances inland, and pops remain
in the 30-40% range.

Monday through Thursday...High pres reestablishes itself by
early next week, and therefore pops no higher than 10-20% are
forecast. Seasonably mild temps in the fcst with highs in the
80s and lows 65-70 forecast, which is very near climo for the
last week of August.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 710 PM Fri...Predominantly VFR conditions continue to
persist across ENC this evening with leftover Diurnal Cu field
quickly dissipating as of this update, and high cirrus
streaming in from the south and west associated with some rain
well to the south. With high pressure ridge wedging itself in
across the Mid-Atlantic, dry air will continue to filter into
the Carolinas limiting any fog or low cloud threat tonight into
tomorrow. As a result, have kept VFR conditions across all of
ENC through tonight. Will note while it is unlikely for some
patchy ground fog to develop (less than 10% chance), the threat
is not zero. Either way, this threat would not impact
operations even if it did develop. So as noted above kept any
mention of fog out of the forecast. As we get into Sat, light
NE`rly wind in the morning becomes more E`rly in the afternoon
with high and mid clouds beginning to build in through the
afternoon as the diurnal Cu field gets set up and a low pressure
system approaches from the south. Either way expect continued
VFR conditions through Sat afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sat night through Wed/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Light rain chances for Sun could bring periods
of sub VFR esp to the coastal areas. High pres returns as the
work week begins.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 145 PM Friday...Latest surface and buoy data indicate NNE
winds 10-15 kt with long period seas impacting the coastal
waters at 8-10 feet. Hurricane Erin will continue to move away
from the NC coast through tonight. Seas will remain elevated
through Saturday. Northeasterly winds will gradually shift more
easterly by Saturday and remain 10-15 kt through Saturday. By
early Saturday morning, seas subside to 5-10 ft north of
Ocracoke Inlet and 4-7 ft to the south. Therefore, SCAs will
continue for all coastal waters through the period.

LONG TERM /Sat night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Light winds for the weekend into early next
week, though lingering long period 6+ ft swell will linger from
departing Erin.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Significant impacts from Hurricane Erin are likely to continue
  across Outer Banks Dare County south of Oregon Inlet through
  this evening`s high tide cycle due to the following factors:
  1) higher than normal astronomical tides 2) lingering powerful
  swell energy and wave run up and 3) compromised dune
  structures from repeated inundation. Water level rises of 2-3
  ft AGL (above ground level) are possible.

- Coastal Flood Warnings continue for Hatteras Island through
  midnight tonight, elsewhere Coastal Flood Advisories continue
  where nuisance flooding may impact some properties, with
  limited to no travel impacts anticipated.

- Life threatening rip currents are expected to continue into
  the weekend, especially on the OBX.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ195-
     196-199-203.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ204-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...DAG/RCF
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...DAG/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX