017
FXUS62 KMHX 142315
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
615 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our west with recenter to the south tomorrow,
and then build offshore through Sunday in advance of a dry cold
front. Cooler high pressure builds back in from the northwest
early next week, with another quick moving front moving through
the area by mid next week. Behind this system high pressure
builds in from the north through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 2 PM Fri...Dry conditions continue this afternoon with
high pressure centered to our west. RHs are down below 30% in
many inland spots, but thankfully winds are very light to nearly
calm, which should limit fire danger. Temps have climbed into
the low 60s, with perhaps another degree or two of warming to
come before temps quickly fall late this afternoon around
sunset. Great radiational cooling conditions are expected this
evening, until winds begin to increase early tomorrow morning
due to the pressure gradient tightening. During the first half
of tonight temps will drop quickly into the 40s, and then may
hold steady the rest of the night as winds begin to increase.
Lows will range from the low 40s over the coastal plain to the
low 50s across the OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 2 PM Fri...High pressure will build over the Gulf Coast
tomorrow while low pressure tracks across southern Canada. This
will increase the gradient locally, with winds increasing to
15-20 mph in the afternoon. Heights will also build allowing for
temperatures to rise into the low to perhaps mid 70s by early
afternoon. Clear skies expected through the morning, but high
clouds will increase through the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 PM Fri...

Sunday...Warming trend continues Sunday with highs expected to
climb into the mid to upper 70s. A dry cold front will pass
through Sunday night, but the only impact to sensible weather
will be breezy winds and cooler overnight lows back into the
low to mid 40s.

Monday-Friday...High pressure returns early next week with
troughing aloft, and temps returning to near climo. The next
front will impact the area Tuesday night, bringing only slight
rain chances to the area. Below normal temps return for Wed and
Thu with post frontal N-NE flow. A stronger frontal system may
impact the area late week into early next weekend, though still
some timing differences this far out in time.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 6 PM Fri...

Key Messages

 - Light winds and VFR conditions through Saturday

VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow with high pressure
over the region. Winds remain light through tonight, but then
come up to 10-15 mph tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: VFR prevails through the weekend and into early next
week with dry high pressure over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 PM Fri...

Key Messages

- Multiple events with hazardous marine conditions expected this
  weekend

 1.) Small Craft conditions expected to develop across the
coastal waters early Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon/evening as SW winds increase to 20-25 kts with gusts
to 30 kts

 2.) Gale conditions develop across the central and southern
coastal waters Saturday night through most of Sunday with strong
Small Craft conditions developing elsewhere

Light winds will continue this afternoon and early tonight with
high pressure to the west. By early tomorrow morning W/WSW winds
will increase quickly from north to south as the pressure
gradient tightens. Winds will increase to 20-25 kts with gusts
to 30 kts over the coastal waters, with slightly weaker winds
over the sounds and inland rivers. By tomorrow evening, winds
will briefly relax north of Cape Hatteras to 10-15 kts, while
strong winds of 20-30 kts remain to the south. Winds will then
increase rapidly again early tomorrow night, this time from
south to north becoming SSW 25-30 kts with gusts 35-40 kts over
the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, and 20-25 with gusts
to 30-35 kts elsewhere. Winds will peak early Sunday morning and
then subside to 15-25 kts Sunday afternoon.

Seas will be 2-4 ft through tonight, and then will increase to
3-5 ft by tomorrow morning. Seas then remain steady through the
day tomorrow before increasing to 6-9 ft tomorrow night, and
remaining at this strength through Sunday morning. Seas begin to
subside Sunday afternoon.

Outlook: Small craft conditions will linger into Monday as a dry
cold front moves through the region as winds become NW 20-30
kts late Sunday night. Conditions improve Monday with winds NW
10-15 kts. SW winds return late Tuesday before another dry cold
front moves through the waters Wednesday. Marginal Small Craft
conditions are possible both ahead of and behind this front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 7 AM EST
     Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 2 PM EST Monday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to noon EST Saturday for AMZ152-
     154.
     Gale Warning from 8 PM Saturday to 2 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EST Saturday for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/RJ
MARINE...SGK