491
FXUS62 KMHX 170621
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
221 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front draped across ENC this morning will eventually
lift north as a warm front today. High pressure then builds in for
a couple of days. A weak front may impact the area Thursday or
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Scattered strong thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty
   winds today

 - Moderate heat risk today, with "feels like" temperatures of
   100- 105

Early this morning, there appears to be several MCVs traversing
central and eastern NC. These all should eventually move out of
the area, but until they do, there appears to be sufficient
moisture and instability to support scattered thunderstorms with
heavy rain and gusty winds through around sunrise.

After sunrise, a stalled front draped west to east across the
HWY 264 corridor should begin to lift north as the southwesterly
low- level flow begins to gradually increase. This will put ENC
well into the warm sector. The main difference today compared
to the past few days is that forcing looks to be much lower
thanks to a lack of shortwaves moving through. Because of this,
it looks like the coverage of thunderstorms will be lower, and
mainly tied to the diurnal sea/bay/river breezes. Strong heating
of a very moist boundary layer should allow moderate to strong
instability to build across the area, with MLCAPE of
2000-3000j/kg. Deep layer shear is forecast to be weak
(20-25kt), setting up a pulse severe environment. Weaker forcing
may make it harder for sustained deep convection, but the
tallest cores today will be capable of strong wind gusts (40-60
mph) and small hail. Of note, if any core can be sustained for a
longer period of time where convergence is maximized, there is
the potential for hail of penny to quarter size. Overall,
though, the severe weather risk looks LOW. Where thunderstorms
develop, the residually moist airmass will continue to favor
intense rainfall rates. While widespread heavy rain is not
anticipated, an instance or two of flash flooding cannot be
ruled out, with this risk primarily focused over areas that have
seen the most rain over the past couple of days.

The lowered coverage of thunderstorms should allow temperatures
to be hotter today compared to the past couple of days. This
means low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. For
inland areas, heat indices ("feels like" temps) are forecast to
reach the 100-105 range. It looks like we will stay just shy of
Heat Advisory criteria, but notable nonetheless.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Increasing inhibition this evening and tonight, plus an overall
lack of forcing, should lead to a diurnal decrease in
convective activity, with the risk shifting offshore. Meanwhile,
a modest southwesterly LLJ and weak WAA should keep
temperatures very warm tonight (mid to upper 70s).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330AM Sun...

Key Messages:

- Potential for dangerous heat indices midweek into the end of
  next week.

Wednesday through next weekend...Previously mentioned upper trough
will be the main feature of note into the end of the week with this
neutrally tilted trough pushing E`wards into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast by Fri. Currently GFS is the deepest and slowest with this
trough with the Canadian and ECWMF guidance slightly quicker and
weaker with the trough. Either way, at the surface we return to a
more summer like pattern with thunderstorms primarily focused along
the Seabreeze on Wed/Thurs with an incoming surface cold front
from the west becoming the focus for potential shower/tstm
activity on Fri. High pressure ridging then builds into the area
over the weekend once again drying the area out. Of bigger note
will be the hot and muggy conditions expected around midweek as
a combination of temps in the 90s Wed/Thurs and dewpoints in
the 70s will result in hazardous heat indices with "feels like"
temps closer to the 100-110 F range each day. Will have to
monitor trends, but the years first heat advisories may be
needed next week if the current forecast holds. Once cold front
pushes through on Friday temps will decrease slightly and the
excessive heat threat will lower this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - TSRA risk continues overnight, becoming more scattered on
   Tuesday

Scattered to numerous TSRA will continue to impact portions of
ENC overnight, then become more isolated by Tuesday morning.
Periods of sub VFR CIGs appear likely overnight as well. During
the day Tuesday, any low CIGs should scatter out, leading to
prevailing VFR conditions. During the afternoon and early
evening, isolated to scattered seabreeze TSRA are expected, and
the TAFs reflect this expectation. Overall, the coverage is
expected to be lower today compared to the past couple of days.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330AM Sun...A more summer like pattern returns with
diurnal thunderstorm activity developing along the Seabreeze on
Tue/Wed. Either way this will bring a daily threat for sub-VFR
conditions each day. In addition to this, early morning fog
development will remain possible for areas that see rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Lower thunderstorm risk today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms ongoing early this morning are
associated with various upper level waves moving through the
area. The thunderstorm activity this morning will be capable of
gusty winds of 30-40kt and waterspouts. Once this activity
shifts further out to sea, there should be a relative minimum in
thunderstorm activity compared to the past couple of days. The
main risk today will be along the inland-advancing seabreeze,
primarily impacting the inland rivers and sounds. The
thunderstorm risk then shifts back offshore to the coastal
waters by tonight.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, a modest southwesterly
background flow of 10-20kt is expected through tonight. A few
gusts to 25kt will be possible in the areas that are typically
impacted by the strongest thermal gradient (Pamlico
Sound/central coastal waters).

LONG TERM /Wednesday though Saturday/...
As of 330AM Sun...By Wed as high pressure settles into the
region and thermal troughing sets up the gradient will pinch
slightly allowing SW`rly winds Tue night into Wed to increase to
15-20 kts with occasional gusts up near 25 kts at times into
Thurs. Seas will generally remain around 2-5 ft through the
period keeping us SCA free through at least midweek.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/RCF