957
FXUS62 KMHX 012321
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
721 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to wedge over the mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas tonight, abutting a stalled frontal boundary and low
pressure a couple hundred miles off the coast. Another area of
low pressure may pass over or offshore of the area mid to late
week. A front will move through the area late this weekend and
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 7 PM Monday...Little change to the forecast with broad
mid-level cyclone continuing to swirl over Eern CONUS, helping
to funnel dry air from New England Sward. At the SFC, wedge of
high pressure remains entrenched over the mid-Atlantic and into
the Carolinas, while offshore stalled front and attendant low
pressure linger. The resultant pressure gradient is helping keep
northeasterly flow elevated across the region. Gusts have
largely subsided across inland areas with the loss of diurnal
heating over the past hour or two, but gusts of 20-25 knots
continue to linger along the Outer Banks as of 7 PM and are
forecast to persist for at least another few hours.

Cool and mostly clear evening in store as lows fall into the
upper 50s to low 60s inland, mid to upper 60s along the water.
Some guidance continues to hint at the development of low
stratus during the overnight hours farther inland; however,
chances have decreased somewhat through the evening hours.
Expect any low stratus that does develop to remain farther
inland, west of all terminals.

Shower threat continues to be predominantly confined offshore
where instability will be maximized between the Gulf Stream and
cooler air aloft in tandem with better moisture. Overnight hours
look to be dry but still cannot rule out a brief shower or two
bleeding along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 1600 Tuesday...Troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard
with an upper level low centered in the NECONUS moving little
through tomorrow morning. Enhanced Sern stream jet will also be
noted extending from the Sargasso Sea west into the Deep South. This
is notable as this will be the catalyst for surface low cyclogenesis
off the Southeast Coast with this low forecast to deepen as it
tracks north and east off the East Coast. At the same time, surface
high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes but will be
wedging itself into the Mid- Atlantic. This is forecast to keep the
aforementioned low off the coast of the Carolinas into Tuesday thus
limiting any precip threat to along the coast and OBX. With that
said, there is a weak shortwave diving south across the Northern
Plains along the periphery of the troughing over the Eastern CONUS.
This lead shortwave will be out ahead of a much deeper trough diving
S`wards from the Canadian Prairies towards the Great Lakes. At the
SFC this will result in a second area of cyclogenesis in the Central
Plains with this surface cyclone and its associated front pushing
further southwards towards the Gulf Coast States. Have increased
afternoon PoPs with a subtle uptick in moisture leading to PWATs
getting back above an inch and some better, albeit meager, mid and
upper level support with the S/W. CAMs suggest potential for light
showers in the afternoon, but have opted to keep them below
mentionable for now as these same CAMs were excited for today`s
precip potential that hasn`t materialized as of the time of
writing this. Temps will continue to remain below avg through
Tue with highs only getting into the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Mon...

Key Messages

 - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek

 - Increasing precip chances late weekend and early next week

Tuesday Night through the weekend...Medium to low confidence
forecast for the remainder of the extended range given large model
spread in overall strength and position of upper level troughs and
lower level features later next week. Lead shortwave trough is
forecast to strengthen some on Wed/Thurs allowing broad troughing
over the Eastern CONUS to deepen while southern stream jet
strengthens further allowing for a deepening surface low in the
Gulf. This deepening low is then forecast to track north and east
Wed-Fri. Recent trends have slowed the progression of this low and
trended towards a more offshore track, so impacts have lowered on
Wed but have increased late week as the low makes its closest point
of approach. Will continue sc pops through the period, lower than
climo. As strong upper trough dives into the Great Lakes and
Northeast Wed through Fri with associated surface low and cold front
pushing east towards ENC. High pressure is then forecast to build in
from the west over the weekend. Again, guidance is having a hard
time handling the strength and position of the upper level troughs,
so confidence in the exact evolution of these features is low. But
could see a low end threat for additional precip on Fri into the
weekend.

Temps remain below avg through Wed gradually warming closer climo by
the end of the week as NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly and low level
thicknesses increase. Temps will climb back towards 90 deg inland
late week into the first part of the weekend. Another front looks to
push through the area late weekend and early next week, which will
lead to enhanced precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Tuesday/...
As of 1900 Monday...VFR flight cats prevail across all TAF
terminals this evening with some spotty MVFR cigs still encroaching
on the Outer Banks in association with modestly deeper moisture
pooled along a stalled front offshore. Wind gusts have largely
subsided inland with the loss of diurnal heating; however, gusts
of 20-25 knots remain likely along the Outer Banks for the next
few hours.

VFR expected to persist overnight. Some guidance continues to
advertise at least some chance (~20%) for low stratus overnight
(primarily for PGV), but most guidance keeps any low stratus
west of TAF sites. Thus, have opted against any mention of sub-
VFR ceilings in this TAF cycle. Isolated shower bleeding inland
across the OBX during the overnight hours cannot be ruled out,
but TAF sites should remain dry.

Similar forecast for Tuesday with diurnal CU field developing
by late morning and northeasterly gusty winds, but not quite as
strong as today.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
As of 400 PM Mon...Expect primarily VFR conditions across ENC
through the period. Iso showers and storms possible each
afternoon, with chances below climo.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 1900 Monday...Only adjustment this cycle was to drop the
Ablemarle, Croatan, and Roanoke Sounds from the SCAs as wind
gusts have dropped below thresholds.

Previous Discussion:
Poor, but improving, boating conditions ongoing across area
waters this afternoon as pressure gradient remains pinched
between wedge of high pressure building in from the N and
stalled front offshore. Northeast winds of 15-25 kt continue
with a few gusts as high as 30 kt over the outer waters. This
has kept seas elevated, currently at 5-7 feet across all coastal
waters.

Winds will subside gradually tonight, but still hover at around 20
kt sustained until Tuesday morning. Expect the breezy NE winds 10-20
kt to continue Tue with 5-6ft seas N of Ocracoke Inlet,
4-6ft over outer waters S of Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet, and
2-5ft for the sheltered waters of Onslow Bay. Seas continue to
fall after sunset tomorrow.

SCA headlines were adjusted for timing, and was able to drop
Alligator River from the Nern Sounds SCA earlier than
previously forecast.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
As of 400 PM Mon...Gradient gradually easing Tue night into
Wed. SCA conditions will continue for the coastal waters Tue
evening, with gusts to 25 kt and seas 4-7 ft. NE winds ease to
5-15 kt Wed with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft as high pressure
ridges in from the north. Winds continue to remain light but
gradually veer to the E-SE Thu and S-SW Fri as a cold front
approaches from the west. Seas generally remain at 2-4 ft from
Wed through late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/ZC
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CQD/OJC
AVIATION...CQD/ZC
MARINE...CQD/CEB/OJC/ZC