577
FXUS62 KMHX 301049
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
649 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast today while a
weak backdoor cold front moves in from the north. The front will
push offshore tonight with low pressure forming along it well
offshore late this weekend, while high pressure rebuilds in from
the north. High pressure to the north will remain in place
through mid next week before a developing low pressure system
moves up or offshore the Eastern Seaboard.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 7 AM Sat...High pressure remains offshore today as a weak
backdoor cold front moves in from the north. This front, along
with a multitude of sea and sound breezes, will provide enough
convergence and forcing for brief isolated shower development
across ENC this afternoon and early evening. That being said,
there are some serious moisture concerns to overcome for rain to
accumulate with LCLs around 5000 ft, and surface dewpoint
depression likely to be 10-15 degrees. A rumble of thunder can`t
be ruled out especially across the southern tier of the
forecast area where there is slightly better moisture and
instability. Low level thicknesses will remain steady today and
should yield high temperatures in the low to mid 80s across the
area. There will be some high based clouds to deal with in the
morning, but this shouldn`t impact daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 2 AM Sat...The weak cold front will push offshore early
tonight, and mostly quiet conditions are again expected. By
early tomorrow morning, cyclogenesis well offshore along the
front/baroclinic zone will bring increasing clouds to the coast
after midnight, and perhaps some isolated showers before
daybreak along the immediate coast. It will also tighten the
pressure gradient, and we`ll have increasing NE winds (15-20
mph) along the coast by sunrise. Low temps will be milder than
the last few nights, mostly due to a light breeze developing
tonight. Expect lows in the low to mid 60s inland, and the
lower 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sat...

Key Messages

 - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek next week
 - Monitoring the potential for unsettled weather mid week next
   week
 - Forecast uncertainty beyond the next day or two is above
   average.

Sunday through Tuesday...Troughing will remain over the Eastern
Seaboard through Tuesday with an upper level low centered in the
Northeastern CONUS moving little through Tuesday morning. This
upper level low then moves off to the north and east Tue night
into the Canadian Maritimes. At the same time, will have a
shortwave traversing the southern stream jet on Sun into Mon
which will act to deepen the trough over the Eastern Seaboard
slightly. This will promote lift and allow for surface
cyclogenesis well off the Southeast Coast Sun along a
baroclinic zone stretching from just north of the Bahamas west
along the Gulf Coast States. Aforementioned low deepens and
pushes off to the north and east away from ENC while at the same
time a strong high pressure ridge centered over the Great Lakes
area extends south and east and wedges itself across the Mid-
Atlantic. This is forecast to keep the general low track well
offshore. Though near the OBX and Crystal Coast will see a
chance at isolated to widely scattered showers and maybe a stray
thunderstorm along the immediate coast and OBX Sun into
Tuesday. NE`rly winds may increase slightly especially Sun night
into Mon as well as the gradient pinches between the low well
to our east and high pressure ridge to the north and west.
Though uncertainty with the strength and position of the low
remains high so there is lower than average confidence in the
precip and wind forecast.

We then begin to monitor a shortwave diving south across the
Northern Plains on Tuesday along the periphery of the troughing
over the Eastern CONUS. This lead shortwave will be out ahead of
a much deeper trough diving S`wards from the Canadian Prairies
towards the Great Lakes. At the surface this will result in a
second area of cyclogenesis in the Central Plains with this
surface cyclone and its associated front pushing further
southwards into the Gulf Coast States on Tues. However, we
continue to have lower than average forecast confidence on Tue
as guidance varies on exact placement and strength of the upper
level troughs and surface lows. Otherwise temps will continue
to remain below avg through Tue with highs only getting into the
mid 70s to low 80s. Lows get into the upper 50s inland to upper
60s across the OBX each night.

Wed through end of next week...Low confidence forecast for the
remainder of the extended range given large model spread in overall
strength and position of upper level troughs and lower level
features later next week. Lead shortwave trough is forecast to
strengthens some on Wed/Thurs allowing broad troughing over the
Eastern CONUS to deepen while southern stream jet strengthens
further allowing for a deepening surface low along the Gulf Coast
States. This deepening low is then forecast to track north and east
on Wed/Thurs. Though as noted above, there is a fair amount of
uncertainty with the exact timing, track, and strength of this low
which will go a long way in determining exact impacts to ENC on
Wed/Thurs and beyond. For now PoP`s remain at SChc to low end Chc
Wed afternoon into Thurs to account for this uncertainty. Given the
lower confidence in the forecast, changes will likely be needed in
the coming days. Otherwise strong upper trough dives into the Great
Lakes and Northeast Wed through Fri with associated surface low
and cold front pushing east towards ENC. Again guidance is
having a hard time handling the strength and position of this
trough as well so confidence in the exact evolution of this
feature is low. But could see a low end threat for additional
precip on Fri into the weekend. Temps remain below avg through
the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Morning/...
As of 7 AM Sat...VFR conditions are anticipated through
tomorrow morning with high pressure over the area today. A weak
cold front will provide some isolated shower/t`storm activity
this afternoon and evening, but this shouldn`t affect flying
conditions. Ceilings of around 5000 ft expected this afternoon
and evening, with winds remaining light and variable.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Expect primarily VFR conditions across ENC
through at least Tues outside of any shower or tstm activity
along the immediate coast/OBX associated with a low which will
be well offshore. Potential for sub-VFR chances increases around
mid week next week with the approach of a low pressure system.
Winds will be NE`rly on Sun and may strengthen some Sun night
into Mon to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 ktsd especially across
the OBX as the pressure gradient tightens between low pressure
well to the east and high pressure to the north and west,

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Sat...Good boating conditions will persist for the
first half of the holiday weekend. High pressure offshore to the
start the day, will give way to a weak backdoor cold front
moving in from the north. Winds will be light and variable this
morning, with a sea breeze developing south of Cape Hatteras
and winds turning to the SE at 5-10 kts. Farther north the weak
front will move into the marine waters, and winds will turn to
the NE at 5-15 kts. NE winds will spread south through the
afternoon, with all waters becoming NE at 5-10 kts before
midnight. Early tomorrow morning the pressure gradient will
tighten, and winds will increase to 10-20 kts. Seas will be
mostly 1-3 ft.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Unsettled weather is expected across our
area waters starting Sun afternoon and persisting through Mon
before more benign conditions resume over the area. Expect high
pressure to wedge itself across the Mid-Atlantic while a
deepening low pressure system well of the ENC coast tracks north
and east. This is forecast to tighten the pressure gradient
resulting in 15-20 kt NE`rly winds with a few gusts up towards
25 kts across all area waters Sun morning and 3-5 ft seas across
our coastal waters. Expect conditions to deteriorate further
Sun night into Mon as the aforementioned low makes its closest
point of approach tightening the gradient further and allowing
NE`rly winds to increase to 15-25 kts with gusts up around 25-30
kts across most waters outside of the inland rivers and
northern sounds where slightly lighter winds can be found. Seas
build to 4-7 ft as well along the coastal waters resulting in
the potential for SCA`s Sun evening into Mon. Conditions then
quickly ease Mon night into Tue with NE`rly winds decreasing
back to 10-15 kts and seas falling to 3-5 ft ending any SCA
threat. These lighter conditions persist through Wed.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF