733
FXUS62 KMHX 141400
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of very weak troughs and fronts will approach Eastern
NC this week with Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 10 AM Mon...Low stratus has been replaced by a bkn 1-2k ft
strato cu deck, and will take several hours to burn off, just
like the last several days as plentiful low level moisture in
place. Covg of showers and a storm or two will be less than the
last several days, and have lowered pops as a result. Best
chances will be the nern counties near the Albemarle/Pamlico
convergence zones, then transition to well inland towards
evening. Pops lowered to 20% for most areas outside of these
areas per latest 14/12Z HREF.

Prev disc... As 2 AM Mon...

Key Messages:

- Dense fog and low stratus likely to develop early this morning
  over the coastal plain and as far east as US 17 corridor

- Heat indices will climb to 100 to 105 degrees again this
  afternoon

As cirrus continues to dissipate over ENC early this morning,
areas of fog and low stratus are beginning to develop where some
radiational cooling has taken place. Expect coverage of fog and
stratus to increase towards sunrise, and fog could become dense
at times along the coastal plain until around 8 am.

High pressure will build in closer from the east today, while an
elongated trough of low pressure sits off the GA/FL coast. Light
southerly flow is expected through the day with the sea breeze
strengthening and advancing inland through the afternoon.
Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected today,
first along the sea breeze (along and east of US 17), and then
activity will shift to the coastal plain later this afternoon
and into the early evening. Slightly better coverage expected
late this afternoon as colliding outflow boundaries help spark
showers and storms, however organization will be lacking due to
very little deep layer shear. High temps will be similar to the
last few days, maybe a degree or so cooler, with afternoon highs
likely in the low 90s inland, and upper 80s along the coast.
When factoring in the humidity, it will again feel like 100 to
105 degrees this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Mon...High pressure will continue to ridge in from
offshore tonight, with a weak trough of low pressure extending
up the SE coast. Initially, late this evening, there may be a
few isolated showers or thunderstorms that slide eastward into
the coastal plain from central NC as convection moving off the
Appalachians reaches ENC. After midnight, convection offshore
and along the coast will steadily increase through sunrise as
convergence strengthens along the coast, and weak shortwave
energy moves over the coastal Carolinas. By sunrise, precip
chances will come up to 20-40% along the coast, as far west as
the US 17 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Mon...
Key Messages...

-Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected into the
 weekend

-Potential for hazardous heat at the end of this week and into the
weekend

Primary feature for the long term will be the daily
chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms as we have entered
into the summer doldrums across ENC. Will note, while we have
average to above average confidence that we see shower and
thunderstorm activity each day, we have lower confidence in the
exact locations within ENC that will be impacted as this will be
highly dependent on the days sea/river/sound breezes and exact
timing of incoming mid level troughs. So while PoP`s each day may be
closer to 40-70%, coverage will likely remain isolated to scattered
in nature, primarily during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Otherwise, the upper level pattern has changed little since the
previous forecast. Jet stream will remain well to the north of the
area through the next several days with upper troughs tracking
across the Northern Plains and into the Northeast this week. Typical
predictability issues are noted later in the long term (Friday and
beyond) with lower confidence in the exact strength and position of
the upper level troughs and ridges over the CONUS. Our upper
level feature of note remains ridging, which will be centered
over the Southeast on Tuesday and will gradually shift west in
the following days into the Southern Plains this weekend. At the
mid levels, multiple weak mid level shortwaves track across the
Carolinas through the week and weekend, while a mid level low
over Florida well to our south tracks into the Gulf. A spoke of
mid level shortwave energy may lift north from this low on
Tuesday, moving inland from the coast across ENC through the
day. The mid level low is one NHC is currently tracking. This
feature currently has a 30% chance of development over the next
several days. Either way, the low will remain well away from
ENC and is no threat to the area.

At the surface, moisture pools and PWATs surge to about 1.75-2.25
inches through much of the week as incoming shortwaves pull moisture
northwards from the Gulf and aforementioned mid level low to
our south. This will continue to bring a general diurnal pattern
of showers and storms each day. One caveat to this is on Tue,
as a mid level shortwave will track NW`wards from the offshore
waters. This is forecast to bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the coast Tue morning, with this activity then
forecast to move inland by Tue afternoon. With PWATS remaining
elevated and having ample deep layer moisture in place, any
shower or storm that develops will bring a threat for heavy
rainfall. While there will be a lack of wind shear across ENC
over the next several days, 1000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast
to be in place each day bringing the potential for sub-severe
wind gusts within the strongest storms. As we get to the end of
the week, surface ridging looks to overspread the Carolinas once
again bringing a "relatively" drier airmass over the area
limiting precip chances. Slightly higher precip chances are then
forecast over the weekend as deep layer moisture returns.

High temps each day range from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Hottest temps
are currently forecast to occur late this week into this
weekend. With dewpoints in the 70s, this will bring the
potential for widespread heat indices around 105-110 F and thus
heat related issues late week. Will continue to monitor trends
as we get closer to the end of the week. Lows through the entire
long term remain in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Morning/...
As of 2 AM Mon...

Key Messages:

- High confidence of LIFR/IFR conditions developing over the
  coastal plain early this morning through around 9-10 am

- LIFR/IFR conditions may reach as far east as the US 17
  corridor around sunrise

- Another round of fog and/or low stratus possible tonight/early
  tomorrow morning

A mix of VFR and sub-VFR conditions are present early this
morning across the airspace. Sub-VFR conditions are likely
expand to most inland areas this morning as areas of low stratus
and fog develop. The best chances for IFR/LIFR conditions will
be along the coastal plain, with lower, but still decent chances
along the US 17 corridor. There is high confidence in ceilings
dropping to 500-900 ft, and lower confidence with how dense any
fog will become. IFR/LIFR conditions will likely persist over
the coastal plain until 9-10 am, with areas to the east likely
seeing VFR conditions return sooner. After this time, mostly VFR
conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the day. Widely
scattered to scattered convection will bring a threat for brief
sub-VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. VFR conditions
are expected for the first half of tonight, but there are
signals that some fog and/or low stratus could again develop
early tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 230 AM Mon... No significant changes to forecast thinking
as the surface pattern changes little through the long term.
Will have a daily threat at afternoon and early evening showers
and thunderstorms through the period. Though one caveat to this
will be Tue. As recent trends show a threat for morning showers
and thunderstorms along the coast to push inland through the day
as a mid level shortwave tracks NW`wards across ENC. Either
way, this will bring a low end threat at sub-VFR conditions each
afternoon and early evening across ENC outside of Tue where the
threat would persist all day. If it does rain, then there will
also be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well for areas
that see meaningful rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 230 AM Mon...Benign boating conditions are expected for
the most part across all our waters through tomorrow. S`rly
winds will generally remain light at about 5- 10 kts through the
period while seas persist at 1-2 ft. Scattered diurnal showers
and thunderstorms will bring a threat for heavy rain, lightning,
and gusty winds for inland sounds and rivers this afternoon.
The shower and thunderstorm threat may briefly end this evening
after the sun sets but latest guidance suggests yet another
threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tue morning as
a mid level shortwave tracks across the region.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 230 AM Mon...Not much change in the forecast for the long
term, with 5-15 kt S`rly winds expected through Wednesday
across all waters while seas build slightly to 2-3 ft as high
pressure ridging remains the dominant feature across the
Southeast. The pressure gradient may tighten slightly between
ridging and a weakening frontal boundary approaching from the
west on Thursday allowing S`rly winds to increase to 15-20 kts
with a few gusts up near 25 kts and seas building slightly to
3-5 ft across our coastal waters. Winds an seas change little on
Fri. Will note, while the current forecast does not explicitly
show SCA conditions through the entire period, we will be
monitoring trends for the Thurs timeframe for potential SCA`s.
Diurnal showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain, lightning,
and gusty winds will be possible through the period. One caveat
to this will be Tue, where a convergence zone is forecast to set
up along our offshore waters Tue morning in association with an
incoming mid level shortwave. This will bring shower and
thunderstorm chances primarily in the morning and early
afternoon across our waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...RCF