119
FXUS62 KMHX 010027
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
827 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track northeastward along a stalled front off the
NC coast today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, high pressure builds into
the area from the north, and will build closer to the coast on
Monday. Another area of low pressure may pass over or offshore of
the area by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 8 PM Sunday...Showers now well offshore along the Gulf
Stream, keeping us dry throughout the region. This will continue
tonight, as have cut back of coastal PoPs with this update.
Across the coastal plain, skies will be mostly clear, which
will aid temps in dropping into the upper-50s. Along the Outer
Banks where there will be greater cloud cover, temps will
remain closer to 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 8 PM Sunday...Labor Day will be a copy and paste of today
with highs in the upper-70s to low-80s, gusty northeasterly
winds, and chance PoPs along the immediate coast. High pressure
will continue to build south into the area but the proximity of
the offshore low and upper-level support from the deep trough
overhead will allow for continued scattered light showers from
Downeast Carteret to the NOBX, with best chances offshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM Sun...

Key Messages

 - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek

 - Monitoring the potential for unsettled weather mid week

 - Forecast uncertainty beyond the next day or two remains above
   average.

Tuesday...Troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard with an
upper level low centered in the Northeastern CONUS moving little
through Tuesday morning. This upper level low then moves off to the
north and east Tue night into the Canadian Maritimes.
Enhanced southern stream jet will also be noted extending from the
Sargasso Sea west into the Deep South. This is notable as this will
be the catalyst for surface low cyclogenesis off the Southeast Coast
with this low forecast to deepen as it tracks north and east off the
East Coast. At the same time, surface high pressure will be centered
over the Great Lakes but will be wedging itself into the Mid-
Atlantic. This is forecast to keep the aforementioned low off the
coast of the Carolinas on Monday and Tuesday thus limiting any
precip threat to along the coast and OBX. However, recent trends
have shown this low becoming deeper and tracking further to the
north than previously modeled which could result in windier
conditions along the coast and OBX than previously expected.

By Tue we are also monitoring a shortwave diving south across the
Northern Plains along the periphery of the troughing over the
Eastern CONUS. This lead shortwave will be out ahead of a much
deeper trough diving S`wards from the Canadian Prairies towards the
Great Lakes. At the surface this will result in a second area of
cyclogenesis in the Central Plains with this surface cyclone and its
associated front pushing further southwards towards the Gulf Coast
States. Aforementioned shortwave has trended slower with its
progression on recent model runs which results in slower surface low
progression which has impacts on Wed and Thurs forecast. As a result
we have lower than avg confidence in the forecast on Tue. Otherwise
temps will continue to remain below avg through Tue with highs only
getting into the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows get into the upper 50s
inland to upper 60s across the OBX each night.

Wed through next weekend...Low confidence forecast for the remainder
of the extended range given large model spread in overall strength
and position of upper level troughs and lower level features later
next week. Lead shortwave trough is forecast to strengthen some on
Wed/Thurs allowing broad troughing over the Eastern CONUS to deepen
while southern stream jet strengthens further allowing for a
deepening surface low in the Gulf. This deepening low is then
forecast to track north and east on Wed/Thurs. Recent trends have
slowed the progression of this low and trended towards a more
offshore track, so impacts have lowered on Wed but have increased on
Thurs as the low makes its closest point of approach. As a result,
have the area precip free on Wed with  SChc to Chc PoPs on Thurs to
account for this recent trend. Given the lower confidence in the
forecast, changes will likely be needed in the coming days.
Otherwise strong upper trough dives into the Great Lakes and
Northeast Wed through Fri with associated surface low and cold front
pushing east towards ENC. High pressure is then forecast to build in
from the west over the weekend. Again, guidance is having a hard
time handling the strength and position of the upper level troughs,
so confidence in the exact evolution of these features is low. But
could see a low end threat for additional precip on Fri into the
weekend. Temps remain below avg through Wed then increase closer to
avg by the end of the week as NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly and low
level thicknesses increase.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday afternoon/...
As of 8 PM Sunday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
to continue through the period. High pressure is building in
from the north, which will keep the majority of the area dry.
Offshore, scattered light showers are expected to persist
through tonight due to an offshore low, while low cloud cover
extending further west may allow for some brief periods of sub-
VFR conditions along the coast. Winds will lessen inland
tonight, but strengthen again to 15-25 kts out of the northeast
tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 220 AM Sun...Expect primarily VFR conditions across ENC
through at least Tues outside of any shower or tstm activity
along the immediate coast/OBX associated with a low which will
be well offshore. Potential for sub-VFR chances increases around
mid week next week with the approach of a low pressure system.
Breezy NE`rly winds of 10-15 kts with gusts up to 15-25 kts are
possible Mon especially across the OBX as the pressure gradient
tightens between low pressure well to the east and high
pressure to the north and west. Winds then ease from Tue
onwards.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 8 PM Sunday...

Key Messages...

 - Ongoing small craft conditions across all waters except for
   the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers. Conditions expected to continue
   through Labor Day

The pressure gradient will continue tightening today between
high pressure building in from the north and a low pressure
system a few hundred miles south of the NC coast. Winds are
currently 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt, and these conditions
are expected to continue through Labor Day. Seas have responded
by building to 5-7 ft tonight. 5- 7 ft seas will persist
through Labor Day with a period of 6-7 seconds.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 220 AM Sun...Ongoing SCA conditions will be noted across
all waters outside of the Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo Rivers as
a tight pressure gradient between a departing low off to the
east and a wedge of high pressure noted to the north keeps the
gradient tight allowing for widespread 15-25 kt NE`rly winds
with gusts up to 20-30 kts. Lightest winds will be noted in the
aforementioned rivers. Seas along our coastal waters will be
around 4-7 ft as well to start the day on Monday. As we go
through the day on Mon, NE`rly winds should gradually ease from
west to east down to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts as low
pressure pulls away from the region. This should allow the
SCA`s across our inland sounds and rivers to end Mon afternoon
into Mon evening. NE`rly winds will continue to ease Mon night
with gusts falling below 25 kts across all waters by Tue
morning. However, 4-6 ft seas across our coastal waters will
persist a little longer going into Tue evening before seas fall
to 3-5 ft allowing the last of the SCA`s to end across our
coastal waters. Afterwards, NE`rly winds ease to 5-10 kt by Wed
morning with seas falling to 2-4 ft as high pressure ridging
controls the ambient weather. Winds continue to remain light but
gradually veer on Thurs and into the end of the week to a SE to
S and then SW`rly direction as a cold front approaches from the
west. Seas generally remain at 2-4 ft from Wed onwards as well.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

Notable low pressure south of ENC, and strong high pressure over New
England, will support persistent, and strengthening, northeasterly
onshore flow along the OBX over the next few days. This should allow
wave heights and periods to gradually build. At the peak, guidance
suggests wave periods of 8-9 seconds by Tuesday. Normally this
wouldn`t be concerning, but in light of the recent impact to dunes
in the wake of Hurricane Erin, there is at least a low end risk of
some minor coastal issues. This would especially be the case by high
tide (~3pm) on Tuesday as wave periods reach their peak. At this
time, no headlines are planned, but we will continue to monitor
water levels and trends in wave guidance to determine if a locally
higher risk may develop.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for NCZ196-199-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-135-137-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC/RJ
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/OJC/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX