199
FXUS62 KMHX 010011
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
811 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have added fog into the forecast for tonight. Updated all discussions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure remains in place through Friday with light winds
and above normal temperatures. Chance for widespread fog tonight.

2) Moisture returns with a cold front and low pressure system
bringing next chance of rain this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Forecast remains on track today with surface high
centered near the coast this afternoon. This has brought yet
another pleasant afternoon to ENC as the area remains under partly
cloudy skies, east to southeasterly winds, low humidity, and temps
in the mid to upper 80s inland and mid 70s to low 80s along the
coast and OBX.

Aloft, upper level trough that was over the Mid-Atlantic today will
gradually push offshore on Thursday and will continue east as
upper level ridging replaces it. At the surface, high pressure
currently centered along the coast will continue to push out to
sea tonight into Thurs allowing SE`rly winds to veer further to
a S-SW`rly direction by Thurs night. Prior to this occuring,
expect winds to once again become light and variable to calm
tonight across ENC. With clear skies, ample low level moisture,
and light winds we have a threat for more widespread fog
tonight with the potential for visibilities below 1 mile at
times given the setup. REFS and HREF data suggest A 50-70%
chance for visibilities below 1 mile across most of ENC outside
of the far norther tier of counties and the OBX. As a result
have a mix of patchy and widespread fog in the grids tonight
after midnight across much of ENC. Lows this evening are
forecast to remain in the 60s. Beyond tonight, upper ridging
will be over the Mid-Atlantic into the end of the week before
pushing offshore with the approach of an upper level trough in
the Ohio River Valley that will push east as well. At the
surface, high pressure will be centered offshore keeping S`rly
flow in place across ENC and allowing for dry weather and a
continued warming trend into the end of the week. By the end of
the week the area could flirt with record highs given the set
up (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).

For reference, normal highs in early October are around 80 degrees,
and forecast highs are in the mid to upper 80s for much of ENC, with
some 90s possible inland Thurs, likely low 90s on Fri.
Persistent southerly flow and increasing low- level moisture
should help to keep overnight lows higher as well, and well
above the normal lows of around 60.

KEY MESSAGE 2...No real changes in forecast thinking this weekend
and into next week as precipitation chances return for the weekend
as Gulf moisture opens up and a cold front drapes across the
southern Appalachians and pushes southeastward slowly on Saturday.
This will squeeze moisture into eastern NC elevating rain chances
for the weekend. While thunderstorms will be possible, the threat
for severe weather is low at this time.

The front loses steam as it approaches the coast, potentially
briefly stalling over Coastal Carolinas, ahead of a second
reinforcing front spurred from the Great Lakes by a stronger trough
aloft. Precip chances do look to diminish by Tue next week as the
aforementioned fronts push offshore and a strong high pressure
ridge builds in from the north and west.

For now, ensemble guidance is showing about a 30-50% chance of
exceeding 1" of rain with this system. Any rain will be helpful,
especially for the coastal plain of ENC that is currently in
moderate to extreme drought.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail for now with considerably less cloud
cover this evening than prior. Another round of fog potential
is possible across all TAF sites with calm winds and an uptick
in low-level moisture. Probabilistic guidance is quite bullish
on low visibilities with the REFS, HREF and LAMP probabilities
all at or slightly above 50% for visibilities of IFR or worse.
Maintained fog with vis as low as 1 mile for now at all TAF
sites, mainly between 07Z-13Z. After daybreak Thursday expect
any fog to dissipate and VFR conditions to return to all of ENC
and persist through the day.

Outlook: Other than a nightly risk of reduced VIS in BR/MIFG/FG, a
low-impact aviation period is expected through the end of the work
week. Precipitation chances increase for the weekend as a frontal
system approaches from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible Saturday and Sunday with the potential for more extended
periods of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions continue across ENC this afternoon with
widespread 5-10 kt E-SE`rly winds and 1-3 ft seas across our area
waters as high pressure ridging continues to gradually push
offshore. Winds will veer to a S-SW direction by Thurs evening while
remaining at about 5-10 kts. Of note, some funneling through the
Albemarle Sound may allow a period of 10-15kt winds there this
afternoon. Seas generally remain around 1-3 ft at 9-10 sec into
Thursday as well.

Outlook: Good boating conditions are expected through at least
Friday. By the weekend, a front will be approaching the area from
the NW, and this is expected to lead to a modest increase in south
to southwest winds, 10-15G20KT FRI afternoon. Increasing moisture
plus weak instability may eventually lead to a risk of thunderstorms
as well, especially on Sunday. At this time conditions look to
remain below small craft advisory levels through the weekend,
becoming increasingly more likely early next week behind a stronger
reinforcing cold front on Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 10/02 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      93/1986  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 89/1986  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    94/1986  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 88/1954  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       95/1986  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  93/1986  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...RM/CEB/RCF