424
FXUS62 KMHX 210700
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Precip chances decreased further for today. Reduced thunder
chances Wednesday onwards.

Increased winds for Wed into Thu.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of rain Tuesday through Thursday.

2) Increased coastal impacts mid through late week as high
waves and potentially strong winds impact the OBX and adjacent
waters, sounds and rivers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A foggy start to your Monday morning commute
with locally dense fog inland around sunrise. Fog dissipates by
mid morning with mainly dry conditions expected for today. Have
cut back on pops further, with just low chc now expected for nrn
areas as a front/prefrontal trough dip into nrn NC.

Front drops in Tue while PW`s surge to aoa 2". Approaching
shortwave energy brings good lift to the region and appears the
best chance for widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms
with cont 60-70% chc for showers. Good rain chances cont Wed
into Thu as upper low over the region and offshore low bring
periods of rain to the region. Thunder chances are very slim as
deep nrly flow and CAD setup appears likely. This will keep
temps cool, with highs no higher than the 70s each day.

Key Message 2...By mid week, strong high pressure system
becomes anchored acrs New England and ern Canada, while at the
same time broad low pres develops off the Mid Atlantic coast,
tightening the pressure gradient along the mid- atlantic and
northeast. This setup will usher in stronger NE winds into
coastal ENC. Exact timing, placement, and strength of the low
will dictate wind speeds and impacts to coastal ENC. Ensemble
probs for gales cont to inc, with wind gusts on the OBX and
adjacent coastal waters 45-50 mph (30-40 mph land zones). What
is more certain is that a long fetch of tightened nerly gradient
winds offshore will bring high wave energy towards vulnerable
portions of the Outer Banks. It is too soon to determine
specifics at this point and trends will have to be monitored.
There is high confidence in seas reaching 10-15 ft nearshore of
the OBX with periods of around 10 seconds.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Environment tonight remains favorable for fog with primarily
clear skies and calm winds for most inland areas, and model
soundings depicting a shallow but fully saturated surface layer.
Probabilistic guidance adds confidence to this scenario, with
the LAMP showing the likelihood of IFR or worse at 50-70% for
all terminals, with best chances for dense fog at EWN and OAJ.
Poor mixing Mon morning may delay lifting of stratus until
after 14z in a worst case scenario.

Benign flying conditions expected for most of today with east
to east southeasterly winds of 5-10 kt. Cold front drops into
the area late today, but rain chances will likely hold off
until after 00z Tues.

Outlook (Mon through Thu): This and the potential cold air
damming pattern develops mid-week with a risk of prolonged sub-
VFR conditions and breezy nnerly winds esp Wed into the end of
the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds no higher than 5-10 kt today as high
pres remains over the region. Seas will remain in the 2-4 ft
range. Winds become predominantly nerly tonight though speeds no
higher than 5-15 kt and seas remaining 2-4 ft.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): NE Winds and seas begin to build
Tuesday PM and esp Wed as pressure gradient tightens as we are
sandwiched between a strong high to our north and low pres
developing well offshore. There is increasing confidence for a
period of nerly gales later Wed and peaking Thu, then slowly
diminishing Thu night into Fri. There is high confidence in high
impact, dangerous seas reaching 10-15 ft nearshore of the OBX,
with ECMWF cont to fcst 15-20 ft seas in the 20-60 mile offshore
marine zones.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...TL/RJ