110
FXUS62 KMHX 190712
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
312 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in through Thursday with oppressive heat
and humidity. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
along the seabreeze Thursday and along a strong cold front
forecast to push through ENC Thursday night. High pressure
builds back into the region late this weekend through early next
week with mainly dry conditions, but dangerous heat and
humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid with potentially dangerous heat indices across the
coastal plain

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible along the seabreeze

The morning will start off quiet with high pressure aloft and at the
surface continuing to usher in deep southwesterly flow.
Conditions will be breezy (20-30 mph gusts) due to the pinched
gradient between the aforementioned high and an incoming trough.
Temps will rise into the low- to mid-90s across the coastal plain
and mid- to upper-80s along the coast. This heat will be accompanied
by dewpoints in the mid-70s, which will generate oppressive heat
indices in the triple digits for the coastal plain. The current
forecast keeps ENC just below Heat Advisory criteria, but it`s
possible for isolated heat indices around 105 degrees. If you`re
planning outdoor work or recreation, have plenty of water and take
frequent breaks to avoid heat illness.

Two rounds of convection are expected today/tonight, with the
first being along the seabreeze in the afternoon and the second
along a strong cold front that will cross the forecast area
Thursday night. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
with both of these periods.

In the afternoon, the seabreeze will interact with 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE and 20-25 kt of deep layer shear, a combination capable of
supporting organized convection. Storms are expected to be widely
scattered along the seabreeze, but any storm that does form will be
capable of gusty winds. Heavy rain will also be possible with
thunderstorms given the anomalously moist airmass still in place
(PWATs around 2"). While damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat, modest lapse rates of 6-6.5 C/km will support the potential
for large hail.

SPC has the northwestern tier of the CWA outlined in a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) with the rest of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5)
for severe weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible along a strong cold
  frontal passage

The aforementioned cold front is then forecast to move through ENC
Thursday night, bringing another chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms. This boundary will provide better forcing than
the seabreeze. Deep-layer shear will remain modest (~30 knots
or less); however, low-level stabilization is forecast to yield
enhanced low-level wind shear, with 0-1 km SRH values forecast
to increase potentially as high as 100-200 m2/s2 during the
overnight hours. While this low-level stabilization will drop
CAPE values, sufficient CAPE (around 1500-2000 J/kg) will
remain in place for strong to severe thunderstorms to be
possible. The main uncertainty surrounds how much stabilization
takes place before storms push through the area, with some CAMs
indicating more substantial CIN and a weaker line of convection
and others depicting stronger storms with less inhibition. CAMs
are largely in agreement that convection will enter the
forecast area around 02-03Z. The severe risk will diminish
through the overnight hours, but if storms move through earlier
or inhibition is on the weaker side, storms will be capable of
all hazards with the primary threats being damaging wind gusts
and heavy rain (lower risk of large hail and tornadoes). Storms
are expected to push offshore by the start of the day Friday.

Outside of thunderstorms, another warm night is expected, with
lows only in the low-to-mid 70s. The cold frontal passage will
gradually see a wind shift to northwesterly towards the end of
the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thu...

Key Messages

 - Dangerous heat and humidity develops early next week. Heat
   indices likely to reach 105 or more Monday through Thursday,
   with the potential for heat indices as high as 110 degrees

Friday and Saturday...A cold front will slide south of the NC
coast Friday morning and eventually stall and dissipate by
Friday afternoon. Weak northerly flow and lower heights will
keep temps mostly in the mid to upper 80s. A multitude of sea
and sound breezes will develop in the afternoon due to the weak
ambient flow, and these convergence zones will likely spark some
scattered showers and thunderstorms lingering into the early
evening.

Weak flow continues Saturday as high pressure strengthens both
inland and offshore creating a local weakness in the pressure
gradient. Building heights and increasing humidity are expected
with light onshore flow developing, and highs will reach the
upper 80s to low 90s across Eastern NC. The weak sea breeze may
be able to provide enough convergence for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm, with the best chances for this from New Bern
south.

Sunday through Wednesday...A very strong upper level ridge will
build over the Mid-Atlantic Sunday, and won`t budge through late
next week. This will keep the area mostly dry until Wednesday
when the ridge begins to break down. Initially the highest low
level heights will be to our north and west, but heights will
build further locally by Monday. This will result in dangerous
heat and humidity building across the region for a several day
stretch. We begin to ramp up Sunday, with highs expected in the
low to mid 90s, with heat indices 100-105. Monday through
Wednesday temps will climb into the mid to upper 90s, with heat
indices soaring to 105-110+.

With strong subsidence due to the upper level ridge of high
pressure, no relief from the heat is anticipated from afternoon
thunderstorms, and the cumulative mutli-day (and all day)
effects from the heat may be underestimated.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected
through the period with high pressure ridging over the area.
Southwesterly winds will continue overnight at 5-10 knots and will
preclude any fog development. Winds increase to 10-15 knots Thursday
with gusts to 20-25 kts. An isolated shower/thunderstorm is possible
along the sea breeze in the afternoon; however, confidence is
currently low in coverage of sea breeze storms with some models not
even depicting any development along the sea breeze. Thus, have not
included any mention of thunderstorms in the TAFs for Thursday
afternoon for now. Chances of thunderstorms are higher during the
late evening and overnight hours ahead of an approaching cold front.
Timing remains uncertain, so thunderstorm mention has again been
left out of TAFs for now. Trends will be monitored for future
cycles. Any convection may bring periods of sub-VFR conditions along
with the potential for gusty winds and heavy rain.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Aside from the threat of temporary restrictions
to due scattered thunderstorms Friday, good flying conditions
are expected through Monday with VFR prevailing and high
pressure building in.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Latest obs show southwest winds 15-25
kt (gusts to 30 kts) and seas 3-5 ft. Breezy southwesterly
winds will continue through the period. Gradient will become
more pinched today ahead of an approaching trough and winds
will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Seas will
respond to this bump in winds by building to 4-6 ft by this
evening with some 7 footers developing across the southern and central
waters later tonight. SCAs are currently in effect for the
Croatan, Roanoke, and Pamlico Sounds and the coastal waters
south of Oregon Inlet, with the northern waters and Neuse/Bay
Rivers following suit later today. Have also added SCAs for the
Ablemarle Sound and Alligator River starting later this evening
given an uptrend in winds/gusts.

LONG TERM /Friday though Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thu...An extended period of great boating conditions
are expected Friday and through early next week. A cold front
will wash out Friday with weak and variable winds expected. Then
high pressure weakly builds in Saturday with winds variable in
the morning, becoming SE 5-10 kts in the afternoon. Winds become
S at 5-10 kts Sunday, and S/SW at 5-15 kts Monday.

Seas will be 3-5 ft Friday morning, and then subside to 2-3 ft
for the rest of the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Friday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/ZC
MARINE...SGK/ZC