040
FXUS62 KMHX 312231
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
631 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extended the Small Craft Advisory across the near shore coastal
waters a few hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cooler post-frontal airmass and northeast flow will lead
to a drop in temperatures over the weekend.

2) Next chance of appreciable rain comes mid to late next week
with a low pressure system moving out of the Deep South.

Marine: Northeasterly winds and seas will gradually subside
through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will continue to build in from
the north through the weekend bringing northeast flow and
cooler but seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 60s
to near 70 degrees. Along the Outer Banks, highs may struggle to
reach the mid-60s. Away from bodies of water, lows should fall
into the 40s tonight thanks to a drier airmass and lighter
winds. High pressure won`t be directly overhead, though, and
there will be a lot of high clouds streaming through, which
should prevent lows from getting as low as they otherwise could.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An amplified upper level trough is forecast to
move into the Central U.S. early next week, but that is where
confidence begins to drop. By the middle to latter half of next
week, medium range guidance continues to vary drastically with
the evolution of the upper trough as it shifts towards the
Eastern U.S. Most guidance point towards at least a piece of the
upper trough getting cutoff from the flow, but where that
cutoff occurs, and if it occurs at all, is a big question mark.
Meanwhile, for comparison, AI guidance suggests a more
progressive and less amplified evolution of the trough as it
reaches the East Coast, with less cutoff potential.

While the upper level differences equate to much different
sensible weather outcomes, the general theme appears to a
pattern that favors a period of southerly flow with milder
temperatures, increasing moisture, and the potential for showers
and thunderstorms. The forecast is very much subject to change
during this timeframe, though, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with sct-bkn mid
and high clouds. NE winds will diminish tonight but light winds
and a sufficiently dry airmass is expected to preclude fog
development. NE winds continue Sunday but won`t be quite as
gusty.

Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): The northeast flow
across the area this weekend will transition to an easterly flow
as we move into early next week. Increasing moisture within
this flow appears supportive of low CIGs and the potential for
BR/FG development (not unlike what was experienced the past few
days locally). Some SHRA will be possible as well, especially
for coastal terminals (KEWN, KMRH). Of note, confidence is lower
regarding the potential for low CIGs and SHRA during this time,
but it`s worth mentioning the potential.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build into the region into early
next week bringing NE winds across the waters. Winds currently
around 15-20 kt. Gusts to around 25-30 kt are mainly confined
to the coastal waters closer south of Cape Hatteras, especially
near the Gulf Stream. Seas are currently around 5-7 ft for the
nearshore waters and up to around 8 ft across the offshore
waters.

Winds diminish to around 10-20 kt overnight into Sunday, highest
across of Onslow Bay where gusts up to 25 kt may continue. Seas
are a foot or so higher than wave guidance across the nearshore
waters and have extended the SCA a few hours to allow for a
slower subsidence. Seas will be around 3-5 ft across the
nearshore coastal waters Sunday into Monday, though continue
around 5-7 ft across the outer coastal waters south of Cape
Hatteras.

Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): Northeast flow is
expected to last through at least Tuesday, along with elevated
seas. By the middle of next week, the pattern is forecast to
begin changing, and this should eventually least to an east to
southeast flow developing for a change. Guidance is mixed on
whether or not a period of stronger east to southeast winds will
develop or not mid next week. For now the forecast reflects
sub-25kt winds mid to late next week, but the forecast is
subject to change, so stay tuned.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/SK
AVIATION...RM/CQD/SK
MARINE...RM/SK