801
FXUS62 KMHX 310552
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
152 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A dry backdoor cold front will push through tonight bringing
near normal temps with continued dry conditions over the
weekend.

2) Next rain chance arrives by mid next week with a low
pressure system moving out of the Deep South.

Marine: The backdoor front will bring a surge of northerly SCA
winds and seas tonight into Saturday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and dry conditions this afternoon with
sunny skies and temps around 80 inland and 70s along the coast.
A dry back door cold front will push through the region tonight
bringing a cool down over the weekend with temps dropping to
near normal and lows near to slightly above normal over the
weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pres ridge begins to break down by Wednesday
as an amplified upper trough over the central CONUS approaches
the region. The attendant sfc low lifts into the Great Lakes
late Wednesday into Thursday with a warm front currently
progged to lift across ENC Thursday followed by the trailing
cold front Thursday night. There is decent spread in QPF amounts
among the models with this system but blend of models is
currently showing around a quarter to three quarters of an inch,
which won`t make much of an impact to ongoing drought conditions
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

A cold front will continue to move south through all of ENC
over the next few hours, and should be offshore by 09z/Saturday.
A brief "thump" of gusty winds and LLWS impacts is expected
along the front, and continuing for about 1-2 hours after the
front has moved through. Winds may lower for a bit around
sunrise, then become gusty again by mid-morning Saturday. Just
ahead of the front, light winds and a moist boundary layer will
support reduced VIS in MIFG. Once the front moves through, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail. A drier airmass moving in
should limit the MIFG/BR/FG risk Saturday night, despite
weakening winds.

Outlook: The northeast flow across the area this weekend will
transition to an easterly flow as we move into early next week.
Increasing moisture within this flow appears supportive of low
CIGs and the potential for BR/FG development (not unlike what
was experienced the past few days locally). Some SHRA will be
possible as well, especially for coastal terminals (KEWN, KMRH).
Of note, confidence is lower regarding the potential for low
CIGs and SHRA during this time, but it`s worth mentioning the
potential.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds across the waters this afternoon with seas around
3-5 ft. A backdoor cold front will push across the waters
overnight with a NE surge 15-25 kt developing bringing SCA
conditions across the coastal waters, with seas building to 4-8
ft. Added SCA for the sounds. Winds and seas diminish Sat night
with the nearshore coastal waters expected to drop below SCA
criteria.

Outlook (Sun through Wed): Conditions gradually improve early
next week, though next rounds of high seas as early as Tue with
next system approaching from the S and W.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131-
     135-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...SK/TL