506
FXUS62 KMHX 081851
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
251 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A typical summertime pattern with shower and thunderstorm chances
being diurnal in nature. An extended period of hot temperatures are
also expected this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A hot and humid day out there today as temps have
gotten into the mid 80s to low 90s this afternoon under partly
cloudy skies with heat indices up around 100F. Some mid level dry
air and subsidence aloft has kept the area precip free this
afternoon for now, however, can`t rule out a very isolated shower
along the sea breeze today. Not much relief from the heat tonight
with lows in the 70s. We could see some increasing cloud cover and
maybe some coastal showers/thunderstorms late tonight into Sun
morning as a weak mid level disturbance that is currently producing
shower and thunderstorm activity in coastal SC will track north and
east making its closest point of approach today. Will note there is
a better than not chance at much if not all of of this activity
staying offshore but kept SChc to low end Chc PoPs noted along the
Crystal Coast and S`rn OBX to account for this threat.

As we get later into Sun and then next week upper ridging and
Bermuda high become suppressed as shortwave energy pushes across the
Mid-Atlantic with more of a zonal pattern developing next week with
a series of shortwave troughs pushing across the area. Next
potential trough that makes its way slightly further south looks to
be around mid to late week timeframe with the typical uncertainty in
timing for this to occur. As a result climo precip chances are
forecast for the next several days with best chances through peak
heating and seabreeze related fro the most part/ Though chances and
timing for precip later in the week will also depend of timing and
exact location of individual shortwave troughs. The severe threat
appears minimal through much of the period with limited shear,
though somewhat better shear develops toward the middle of next
week.

Hot temperatures continue into next week as well with highs in the
lower 90s inland into Monday, then warming in to the mid 90s Tue/Wed
and beyond. Temps generally in the mid to upper 80s along the coast.
The probabilities for Major Heat Risk increase to around 50-80%
Monday through Thursday with highest probs on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AMD NOT SKED continues to be appended to the KEWN TAF due to an
ongoing FAA comms issue that is impacting dissemination of the
observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be issued
while the issue is troubleshooted. NKT is the closest ASOS. EWN is
able to be dialed into to receive METARs.

Currently VFR conditions and light winds are noted across all of ENC
with satellite imagery showing some diurnal Cu at about 4-5 kft this
afternoon. Expect this to continue into tonight with most guidance
keeping convection at bay today. While, cannot rule out an isolated
shower or thunderstorm developing along the sea breeze this
afternoon, chances are low enough to preclude any mention at the TAF
sites. Winds become light and skies clear resulting in the potential
for an additional round of patchy fog late tonight into early Sun
morning with the greatest risk to see fog across the SW`rn zones
(OAJ TAF site and adjacent areas). This could bring vis and ceilings
down to MVFR/IFR at times into Sun morning. Regardless of
development VFR conditions return by mid Sun morning to all of
ENC.

Outlook (Sunday afternoon through Thursday): Primarily VFR
conditions and light winds are forecast into mid week as high
pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there
is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Not much change in the marine forecast for the next few days as a
Bermuda high centered offshore will be the main weather feature of
note. We start out each day with S-SW winds around 5-15 kt during
the morning hours, increasing to around 10-20 kt during the
afternoon and evening as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of
gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high.
Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico,
Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at
times but currently not anticipating any SCA headlines for any
waters given the short and infrequent nature of any stronger
gusts. Seas will remain around 2-4 ft.

Minimal shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and early
evening, then chances increase tonight as a trough of low pressure
rotates around the Bermuda High followed by a series of shortwaves
pushing across the coastal waters. Expect chances for precip to
continue into next week mainly being nocturnally driven and with the
highest chances over the Gulf Stream waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF