590
FXUS62 KMHX 111858
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
258 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Expanded the Heat Advisory to include Pitt, Greene, and Lenoir
counties. Updated PoPs given radar and model trends.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions will prevail through the workweek
with bringing high probabilities for a major heat risk over much
of the area.

2) Summertime pattern continues over the next several days
with daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An elevated heat risk will be the name of the game over the
next few days low level flow generally SW to W over the next
several days. As a result, some weak WAA will allow low level
thicknesses to increase closer to 1430m. Based off the offices
climatological study this is forecast to result in highs in the
low to mid 90s across the inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s
along the OBX and coast through much of the week before a front
impacts the region resulting in cooler temperatures late week
into the weekend.

Heat indices are expected to peak around 100-110 each afternoon
through Thurs, and potentially lingering into Fri with daily heat
headlines probable for much of the area. For today, have
expanded the Heat Advisory to include Pitt, Greene, and Lenoir
counties. We encourage anyone planning on spending alot of time
outdoors this week to take proper precautions and stay
hydrated.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A typical summer time pattern will remain in place through much
the week with a series of shortwaves/MCS`s moving through WNW
flow aloft bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms across
the region. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, could
see daily seabreeze related storms developing each afternoon,
however best forcing will occur as individual shortwaves move
across the region.

A MCS currently over WV/Western VA is expected to dive into NC
late afternoon, reaching the eastern half of NC this evening.
There is a lot of uncertainty on the coverage and strength of
storms as it approaches eastern NC, but if it can keep its
strength, some gusty winds could be at play with the strongest
of tstorms this evening into early tonight.

A second MCS currently moving through Indiana is expected to
dive southeast and reach NC later tonight. How the first MCS
progresses has a big impact on the second MCS, so there is once
again low confidence on the outcome. Regardless, gusty winds are
still at play with and stronger storms that exist as the second
MCS remnant approaches eastern NC.

SPC has the entire CWA in a marginal risk for severe weather
tonight.

Additional shortwaves are expected tomorrow and Thursday PM and
SPC has portions of the FA in a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms for Day 2 as these systems push across the area.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threat with these
storms. A stronger northern stream shortwave is progged to push
across the Mid- Atlantic Friday with the attendant cold front
pushing into the area bringing the best forcing and chances for
widespread showers and storms across the area. High pressure
build into the area over the weekend bringing bringing a drier
airmass and minimal chances for storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AMD NOT SKED is kept for EWN with spotty observations. TAFs
will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted.
NKT is the closest ASOS. EWN is able to be dialed into to
receive latest observations.

Fog and low stratus concerns are low tonight with winds
expected to remain elevated enough. However, locations that
experienced enhanced rainfall today could be at risk of seeing
some low stratus or very shallow, non-impactful ground fog with
higher near surface moisture. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening along the
sea breeze, with additional rounds of tstorm chances tonight as
convective systems pushing across the Mid- Atlantic. Some
storms could produce strong wind gusts.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Primarily VFR conditions
and light winds are expected mid to late week, but there will be
scattered convection possible each afternoon and evening hours
that could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions. A cold front is
progged to push through the area late Friday/Friday night that
will bring the best chances for prolonged sub-VFR conditions. In
addition, there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to
develop each morning with best chances in areas that saw
significant rainfall the previous afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
A typical summertime pattern across the waters with S-SW winds
around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around
10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening each day this week as
temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the
thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach
SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and
coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not
anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short
and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain
around 2-4 ft into the end of the week as well.

A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters
through the week continuing to bring periods if showers and
thunderstorms, most prevalent being nocturnal driven over the
Gulf Stream waters. A cold front is progged to push across the
waters late Friday/Friday night with N to NE winds developing
over the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ