428
FXUS62 KMHX 032307
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
607 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased pops for Wednesday (Tomorrow) with warm front/weak
coastal trough lifting through.

Continued the trend of increasing pops Friday ahead of a cold
front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through
Thursday.

2) Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms on Friday ahead
of a cold front.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the fropa for this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and
synoptic setups through the period. Where guidance is fairly
well clustered is with an amplified upper trough that will be
shifting east out of the Central U.S. A progressive and open
wave will sweep through the Eastern U.S at the end of the week.
Before that happens, low level flow will be from a moist
easterly direction this evening then switch southeast on
Wednesday as weak warm front/coastal trough lifts through, which
will produce some widely sct showers. Continued higher than
advertised NBM pops for these widely scattered showers, best
chances during diurnal heating. No real accums of rain expected,
but enough to wet the ground in places. Area is firmly
entrenched in swrly flow Thu, but with no forcing in place, pops
are generally less than 15% except for the OBX, which may ocnl
be plagued by some showers skirting the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Most 03/12Z guidance is converging on Friday
with widespread showers and even a few thunderstorms during the
afternoon into evening with a wet cold front moving through. Of
note, some guidance shows anomalous moisture and higher- than-
normal instability for early November, as indicated by EFI
highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th percentile. Have
increased the thunder threat for inland areas where the EFI is
highlighting the higher CAPE/Shear indices, with slght chc
thunder probs for coastal counties. If best forcing lines up
with peak heating, a strong to severe thunderstorm threat would
materialize for areas esp west of Hwy 17 Fri afternoon. Main
threat would be damaging winds.

Very warm and humid airmass in place, and nighttime lows will
esp be very warm, and be closer to our normal highs for this
time of year. Some record warm lows may be in jeopardy. Highs
through Fri will be near 80 inland with 70s coast, and lows will
be in the 60s. For reference, normal highs are 65-70 for early
November, with normal lows in the 40s inland and 50s along the
coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with fropa late
Fri, which will usher in a more seasonably dry airmass for the
coming weekend. Return to mo sunny skies and highs in the upper
60s to low 70s, and lows generally in the 40s. Warmest day will
be Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tonight, good radiational cooling is expected under clear and
calm winds, which would lead to a good setup for some fog.
However, based on persistence from this morning, many places
were spared widespread fog development. For this reason, did not
indicate any IFR fog except for PGV and ISO. For coastal areas,
some stratus may from time to time advect onshore and will
limit any br/fg. Any fog burns off quickly on Wed morning, with
winds veering from east to southeast through the day. A few
showers many impact EWN, MRH, and OAJ, but not enough coverage
or intensity to include in the fcst. Areas of fog and/or stratus
will be possible again Wed night.

Outlook (Thu through Sun): Periods of low CIGs and SHRA will be
possible off and on Wednesday and Thursday. A more notable risk
of SHRA, as well as TSRA, comes on Friday as a cold front moves
through. A risk of sub- VFR conditions will likely accompany
this front as well. SE/S/SW flow will generally dominate through
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in place to the north with coastal
troughing along the coast. Latest obs show NE-E winds 5-15 kt
with seas mainly 2-4 ft. Light winds will continue through the
day today (strongest across the southern and central waters).
Seas 2-4 ft will continue nearshore and 3-5 ft offshore. Iso to
widely sct light showers will be possible through mid week.

Outlook (Thu through Sun): The winds become south to southeast
by Thursday in the wake of the inland-advancing coastal trough
and warm front. Winds will cont in the 5-15 kt range with sub
SCA seas. Thursday and beyond, a better chance for some advected
6+ ft seas as weak low pres develops well offshore, though
winds will remain below 20 kt. Cold front passes through late
Friday, with winds turning nwrly behind the fropa but should
cont remaining below SCA thresholds. High 6+ ft seas may linger
into the weekend however.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL