014
FXUS62 KMHX 140200
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The pattern will remain unsettled this weekend into early next
week with high pressure offshore and frontal boundary stalled
to the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...
As of 10 PM Fri...No changes needed. Rain has dimished as
expected, and only 20-30% chc in forecast rest of the overnight.

Prev disc... As of 707 PM Fri...Thunder threat has
diminshed markedly with loss of diurnal heating, but large area
of stratiform rain and showers is still present across much of
ENC, so likely pops will cont through the early evening with
slght chc thunder mention. As the night goes on, precip shield
will shrink, but ocnl showers and perhaps a storm may be present
across coastal counties with juicy atms remaining.

Prev disc... As of 300 PM Friday...Little change in the overall
pattern through the short term with upper riding and the
Bermuda high centered off the Southeast coast serving to advect
a warm and moist airmass into the region. Several weak impulses
are lifting over the ridge as a slow moving mid level low lifts
ENEwd into the Ohio River Valley. Moderate instability with
SBCAPE peaking around 2500-3000 J/Kg has allowed numerous
showers and storm to develop across ENC late this morning and
afternoon with the aid of the sea breeze front, lingering
outflow boundaries. Bulk shear remains weak at only around 15 kt
so storms have remained sub- severe but have seen gusts to
around 40 mph. PWATs have surged to over 2" and heavy rainfall
will be the primary threat from storms and could see localized
flooding where storms training occurs.

Expect storms to wane through the evening with loss of sfc
heating but could see isolated showers and storms through the
overnight. Sufficient cloud cover should limit the fog threat
tonight but could see patchy fog where heaviest rainfall occurs.
Temps will be mild with lows generally in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Saturday looks to be a repeat of today
with little change in the overall pattern and expect scattered
to numerous showers and storms to develop with daytime heating.
Peak SBCAPE expected around 2500 J/Kg, bulk shear around 15-20
kt will limit the severe threat but PW values around 2"+ and
weak storm motion will allow for a continued flooding rain
threat and SPC continues to have the region in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall. Temps remain warm and humid with highs in
mid 80s with a few locations potentially reaching the upper 80s
before the convection initiates.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 0315 Friday...

Key Messages:

- Warm, Moist, Unsettled.

This weekend two sluggish systems inch toward the FA, a cold
front sagging Sward from Great Lakes and a midlevel cutoff low
dragging Eward from TX. Moisture content remains ample with
PWATs AoA 2" in onshore flow through the bottom half of the
column keeping mentionable PoPs in the forecast for the vast
majority of the period. A local low along the boundary to the N
located near DELMARVA rides the front Eward out to the Nern
Atlantic Saturday, pulling moisture over the FA in its wake.
This is the first of three waves to travel Eward along the
boundary, which is still forecast to remain just N of the FA
through the period. Slow storm motions, potentially training
storms, and plenty of moisture means localized flooding threat
is on the table through the weekend, and therefore at least
portions of the FA are in a Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding
through the weekend. Nothing jumps off the page as impressive
Severe wx wise Saturday, though there may be some more shear in
play on Sunday which would support some better updraft
organization. With that said, this time of year, should MUCAPEs
be tapped into, cells capable of producing damaging winds
aren`t out of the question.

Early next week mid level trough approaches from the W with the
offshore high holding strong keeping moisture and instability
in place for more summer precip pattern forecasts, with best chances
associated with seabreeze in afternoon and evenings becoming
confined offshore nocturnally. The aforementioned front is
forecast to remain N of the FA through the weekend and early
week, but waves traveling along the boundary make details of the
front`s exact location a little tricky.

Once the midlevel shortwave has cleared the FA next week, the
effects of the offshore ridging will reach further W, leading to
more zonal flow aloft and a less dynamic pattern, at least
briefly.

General warming trend in Ts through the long term, MaxTs in mid
upper 80s maybe touching 90 and MinTs low 70s heating up to
MaxTs in the low to mid 90s with MinTs in mid 70s by late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 710 PM Friday...Numerous showers still linger acrs the
terminal for the next hour or two, but thunder threat diminished
rapidly with loss of diurnal heating/ Overnight, expect areas
of IFR STCU to develop after midnight with highest probs at ISO
and PGV, but cannot rule out at the coastal terminals as well.
Sub- VFR (MVFR) stratus will likely continue through mid
morning as LCLs rise with plenty of low level moisture in place.
Saturday looks similar with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across rtes from late morning through the
afternoon. Winds cont sswrly on Sat at 5-10 kt with some higher
gusts in convection.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Monday/...
As of 0350 Friday...Unsettled conditions will prevail through
the period, keeping diurnal showers and tstorms in the forecast
each day. Expect periods of sub- VFR flight cats with gusty
winds under showers/storms in afternoon and evening with early
morning fog development possible for areas that see rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Friday...The Bermuda High remains off the SE coast
bringing SW winds around 10-15 kt and seas around 2-4 ft
through Saturday morning. A weak low pressure area move along a
stalled boundary across central VA will serve to tighten the
gradients some Saturday afternoon with winds around 15-20 kt and
could see occasional gusts to around 25 kt across the coastal
waters and the Pamlico Sound but not expected to be widespread
enough to warrant SCA issuance at this time.

LONG TERM /Saturday night though Monday/...
As of 0400 Friday...Generally SW 10-15kt through the long term,
strongest during peak heating, calming ever so slightly
overnight. Sat may see some gusts approaching 25kt across
PamSound in the afternoon. Typical summer- time precip pattern:
offshore showers early AM, clearing afternoons, nocturnal
showers and storms. Winds slightly stronger weekend, SWerly
15-20kt offshore.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/TL
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CEB/OJC
AVIATION...TL/CEB
MARINE...SK/CEB