981
FXUS62 KMHX 132001
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
401 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Double barrel low setup off the East Coast will slowly
consolidate into a broader low and sink south through the
Atlantic waters off the NC coast tomorrow. High pressure builds
in mid week with dry and unseasonably cool weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 4 PM Mon...Ovc skies and cool conditions across ENC late
this afternoon. Some patchy drizzle still possible through
early evening, esp along the srn coast, but won`t amount to any
accums. Mainly dry overnight, though widespread cloud cover will
persist. As upper low over the Great Lakes dives south towards
morning, some light rain may break out acrs the northern tier
and towards the OBX by around daybreak. Otherwise, seasonable
temps expected with lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 4 PM Mon...The two SFC lows off the East Coast begin to
consolidate with the DelMarVA low sinking SEward to merge with
the Sern low and move well off the NC coast. With upper low
diving through ENC, an inc in pops can be expected. Inc pops
quite a bit, with 40-60% coastal areas, highest OBX zones. HREF
guidance is even a bit higher, so there is some room to inc them
a bit more. Much lesser chances for rain further west towards
the Coastal Plain, where 20% or less is advertised. It will be
overcast again, even for areas that don`t see much rain, so have
dropped max T`s quite a bit, with highs expected only in the mid
60s for most locales.

With the offshore low(s) moving southward off the NC coast, an
inc in the northerly gradient will bring gusty winds to the
coast, with speeds up to 40 mph or so expected by the afternoon
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wed through Mon/...
As of 3 AM Mon...

Key Messages...

- We turn breezy and cooler this week with lows bottoming out
  in the low 40s Friday and Saturday mornings

- Dry and breeze conditions through this weekend. Next chance of
  rain possible by early next week

Mostly cloudy and cool conditions persist Tuesday with moisture
from the coastal low and nearby upper trough still over ENC. A
few widely scattered and light showers will be possible along
the coast Tuesday as well. High pressure then builds in for
Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s, with a cooler
airmass moving in for Thursday and Friday (highs in the 60s)
thanks to a reinforcing cold front. High pressure re-centers
over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday, and then moves offshore
Sunday which will signal a return to above normal conditions.
The next chance of rain may come late Sunday or Monday as a
quick moving and moisture-starved front moves across the
Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tues/...
As of 3 PM Mon...All areas under MVFR ovc skies this afternoon.
Skies will remain ovc through the TAF pd. Some lifting of the
low stratus to VFR is possible this evening, but then conditions
deteriorate once again later this evening, with IFR skies
possible on Tuesday morning as an increase in low level moisture
occurs due to impinging low pres along the coast. Best chances
for IFR on Tuesday will be KPGV and KEWN. Some light rain is
possible at all TAF sites tomorrow, but eastern terminals, and
especially eastward from there towards the coast, have the best
chance of rain. Light winds through tonight will pick up out of
the north on Tue with gusts of up to 20 kt through late morning
and the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the
week with cooler and drier high pressure over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tue/...
As of 0300 Monday...Two low pres systems off the East Coast will
consolidate into one while remaining offshore on Tue. Winds will
generally be in the 10-20 kt range tonight, with an inc in winds
on Tue as the low(s) move southward but well off the NC coast.
This will create a pinched gradient, with another chance of
gales back in the forecast after 18z, mainly for the coastal
waters north of Ocracoke Inlet, but also ern portions of Pamlico
Sounda as well as the Croatan/Roanoke sounds. ECM probs for gale
gusts are 50-80% now for these zones, so have opted to issue a
gale watch starting at 18z and going through 06Z Wed.

Seas will continue in the 6-8 ft range through tonight, then an
uptick later Tue into Tue night 8-10 ft with the northerly
surge.


LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...

Key Messages

 - A tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine
   conditions in the forecast through at least mid week with
   marginal Gale conditions possible at times

As low pressure pulls away from the region Tuesday, strong high
pressure will build in from the NW, and will keep the pressure
gradient tight through most of the week. Winds will be NNW/N at
20-30 kts, with gusts 30-35 kts, with a few lulls through
Friday. Seas will rebuild to 6-10 ft, but could be higher north
of Cape Hatteras.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 4 PM Mon...Though the coastal low has weakened, and will
pull away from the region early this week, minor to moderate
coastal flooding will continue due to persistent northerly
winds.

Outer Banks: Coastal Flood Warnings continue through this
afternoon for Hatteras Island and the northern OBX where
significant impacts (2-4 ft AGL) are again possible during high
tide. Water levels and wave run up will be less extreme than
yesterday afternoon, but still have the potential to create
major issues along NC 12, and impact adjacent vulnerable
structures. Tomorrow afternoon`s high tide has the potential to
produce similar impacts, especially across Hatteras Island, and
a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued here for the threat
tomorrow. Due to offshore winds and decreasing swell, the
Coastal Flood Warning for Ocracoke has been replaced with an
Advisory, and mostly minor oceanside impacts (1-2 ft AGL) are
expected with this afternoon`s high tide. On the sound side,
strong and steady northerly flow will lead to minor flooding
impacts beginning later today from around Avon south to
Ocracoke Village, and linger through at least Wednesday.

Downeast Carteret, Craven, Pamlico: Coastal Flood Advisories
have replaced warnings here, and an extended period of minor
flooding (1-2 ft AGL, locally up to 3 ft a times) is
anticipated due to strong northerly winds. Flooding may be
worsened around high tide early this week due to still higher
than normal astronomical tides, with minor flooding impacts
lasting through at least Wednesday.

Western Carteret, Coastal Onslow: One last "very high" high tide
will occur this afternoon, which will likely cause some isolated
areas of minor flooding (~1 ft AGL) along and adjacent to Bogue
Sound and the White Oak and New Rivers.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ094-194-
     196-204.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ195-199.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ203-
     205.
     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ131-230.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
     for AMZ135-150-152-154-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SGK/ZC
AVIATION...TL/SGK
MARINE...TL/SGK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX