Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
586 FXUS62 KMHX 172308 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 708 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. Introduced paragraph on potential coastal concerns mid next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected through tonight with a warming trend back to above climo late in the work week. 2) Occasional periods of unsettled weather returns over the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...An upper ridge centered over the Southeast CONUS and sfc high pressure ridging in from the north will keep generally dry conditions across ENC through friday afternoon. Sea breeze is progressing through the region as weak synoptic flow provides less resistance compared to the past couple days. We have warmed up to the upper 80s inland, low 80s for beaches with temps expected to quickly drop around sunset. One more night in the 60s for tonight before TD`s surge more on Friday as a prefrontal trough moves through and high pressure weakens and slides further offshore in the morning hours. Trough brings light NW winds behind it briefly, before the front moves through Friday night ushering in more NE winds and precip chances. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front is progged to move in late Friday and Friday night. Sfc convergence and lowering heights aloft as shortwave energy rides over the upper ridge along with increasing moisture will allow for a better chance of showers and perhaps a few storms acrs nrn half of the FA, with best chances N of Hwy 264 Friday afternoon into evening. Front slowly sags into srn portions of ENC Sat, with best chances for showers and iso thunderstorms for srn areas on Sat. Fcst a bit more muddled beyond Sat as it will depend on the front location. Temps rise to above climo once again Fri into early next week. Next week, a strong high pressure system centered north of the Great Lakes region shifts east, tightening the pressure gradient along the mid-atlantic and northeast as it pushes against a non-tropical low forming offshore. This will likely usher in stronger NE winds to the region. Given it is 5-6 days out, there is a margin for error, but for now there is good model consensus on higher waves and elevated winds along the Outer Banks mid- next week. This will be worth keeping an eye on, as a long fetch of strong winds could bring higher wave energy towards vulnerable portions of the Outer Banks. It is too soon to determine specifics at this point and trends will have to be monitored in the coming days. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions through the period with light winds as broad area of high pressure remains in control but slowly shifts offshore. Impactful fog is improbable tonight given very low-level dry air, but some shallow nuisance ground fog is possible briefly around dawn. Weak trough moves into the area tomorrow offering a chance of a brief isolated shower and a wind shift out of the north through the day, although speeds will remain under 10 kt. Outlook (Tonight through Tuesday): A cold front is progged to push south into the area Friday evening into the overnight hours with chances for showers and perhaps a storm, which will cont the threat for some unsettled weather into the weekend and into early next week. && .MARINE... Light breeze cont less than 10 kt, veering serly this afternoon then becoming sswrly overnight tonight into Friday. Seas will remain on the low side, generally 2-3 ft nearshore, with 4 ft sets offshore. Outlook (Friday through Tuesday): A cold front drops into the nrn waters Friday PM, bringing winds around back to the northeast again for nrn sounds and waters N of Oregon Inlet. The front slides southward through Friday night with nerly winds expected to inc a bit into the 10-20 kt range for all waters and sounds by Sat. Winds and seas should remain below SCA however through the weekend. Sunday winds veer to srly by late day, then become nwerly behind yet another fropa on Monday, though speeds remain generally in the 5-15 kt range Sun into Mon with seas 2-4 ft. NE Winds and seas begin to build Tuesday PM as pressure gradient tightens as we are sandwiched between a strong high to our north and a non-tropical low developing offshore. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TL/RJ AVIATION...MS/RJ MARINE...TL/RJ