759
FXUS62 KMHX 161845
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
245 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory issued for all of eastern NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid temps persist across ENC into late in the week,
peaking tomorrow.

2) Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will pose a marginal
risk for strong storms and isolated flash flooding today and
tomorrow.

3) Climo precip chances are expected Tuesday and Wednesday
before the next front tracks across the area later in the week
bringing more widespread unsettled weather to ENC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest surface analysis this hour shows stalled
frontal boundary draped from roughly Wilmington northward to
along the I-95 corridor with high pressure centered off the
coast of New England extending along the mid- Atlantic coast.
The boundary is forecast to gradually lift north and eastward
later this afternoon in response to a mid-level shortwave
forecast to track across the mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection
has likely abated peak heating and will keep highs at or
slightly below 90, capping heat indices at 100-105.

Tomorrow is a different story with the frontal boundary fully
lifted into the mid-Atlantic and thicknesses soaring back to
1435-1440+ m, setting the stage for highs in the mid to upper
90s inland assuming relatively clear skies to start the day. The
level of humidity is the main point of uncertainty as surface
winds will be WNW to NW, suggesting downsloping and Tds trending
lower than model consensus. If this does occur, HI values will
almost certainly still reach between 105-110 F. For that reason,
issued a Heat Advisory for tomorrow across all inland zones. A
short-fused upgrade to Extreme Heat Warnings, however is not out
of the question overnight mainly along the southern coast where
the sea breeze will boost dew points.

Another frontal boundary quickly pushes across NC tomorrow
evening before stalling along the coast. Like this weekend,
southern counties will likely remain hot and humid while
Albemarle and vicinity see some modest relief. A more widespread
cooldown, however, is on the horizon late week as a stronger
cold front dives out of Canada and across the eastern CONUS.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Overall environment today remains favorable for
convective development, although higher probabilities will be
focused farther west as cooler NE to E surface flow keeps
instability more limited across NE NC and portions of the Outer
Banks. Primary focal points for convection today have been
differential heating boundaries closer to I-95 and I-85 as low
stratus from earlier this morning lingered, as well as diurnal
sound and sea breezes. Shear is poor today, but with moisture-
laden profiles (KMHX sounding at 12z had PWAT of 2.41"), a wet
microburst is possible especially farther inland as forecast
DCAPES rise to 600-750 J/kg. Torrential rainfall is the larger
concern with rates of 2-3"/hr possible in even marginally
organized cells.

Later in the evening, CAMs depict a likely convective complex
over VA, sustained by better shear and upper level support, to
propagate towards NE NC later this evening. This will pose a
marginal damaging wind threat with a forecast uptick in shear of
20-25 kt, although the aforementioned limited instability may
also result in a rapid decay of the complex. NCAR HRRR
probabilities show the threat of any winds exceeding 50 kt is
very low - less than 10%.

A cold front then approaches from the north and west tomorrow
evening. Aforementioned heat and humidity will easily boost
instability with a forecast 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, but shear
will once again be lacking at generally 20 kt or less. However,
with PWATs remaining at or above 2" conditions will once again
be favorable for a stronger storm or two to impact the area
bringing a damaging wind, frequent lightning, and torrential
rain threat. Convective evolution will not be terribly different
from the past couple of days, with an afternoon focus along sea
and sound breezes and then upstream convection along remnant
differential heating boundaries inland, and then an evening
focus as a potentially more organized complex pushes across the
state through the evening hours - this, like tonight, would pose
the higher severe threat with damaging winds. AI NWP guidance
has elevated probabilities, which are plausible since northwest
flow events tend to overperform across eastern NC.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A brief return to more climo PoPs is forecast
Tue and Wed with the seabreeze and stalled front offshore being
the main focus for showers and thunderstorms. Stronger front is
likely to approach the region and stall late week, serving to
both offer a reprieve from oppressive heat and humidity, and a
chance of strong to severe thunderstorms as shear increases
alongside the boundary with stronger troughing. Given how far
out this is, there are still several details to hammer out but
will be monitoring trends in the forecast for any adjustments in
timing and strength of this front in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity in progress across
inner coastal plain terminals this afternoon, and will remain a
threat for all terminals through 00z with a risk of torrential
rainfall lowering visibilities to one mile or worse at times and
IFR cigs. Stand-alone convection could be capable of erratic
gusts to 40 kt or higher.

After sunset any leftover shower and t-storm activity is
forecast to diminish with yet another risk for sub-VFR ceilings
noted especially where any activity occurred. With winds likely
to be elevated out of the SW fog appears unlikely. However,
given ongoing uncertainty with rainfall footprints have not
included explicit mention in the TAFs.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Mainly VFR conditions
expected tomorrow morning. More widespread threat of sub-VFR
conditions is possible tomorrow night into Tuesday ahead of the
next front before VFR conditions return Tue into Wed. Yet
another front begins to approach from the west later in the week
once again bringing increased shower and thunderstorm risks as
well as increasing risks for sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions expected the rest of this afternoon
and early evening, with an increasing threat for showers and
thunderstorms as activity inland gradually migrates offshore.
Frontal boundary is still south of area waters this hour but is
forecast to lift northward through the evening, enveloping all
zones in southwesterly flow overnight and into Monday morning.
Flow will strengthen with tightening thermal gradient in the
afternoon, and may see some infrequent gusts to 25 kt across
sounds and near-shore waters. Seas likely climb up to 4 feet
briefly tomorrow aft and evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms likely overnight Mon as front approaches waters.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Benign boating conditions
continue Tues and Wed with eyes to next potential SCA late next
week with a stronger frontal boundary. Each day will bring a
low to moderate risk (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms to
area waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 08/17 (Monday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       96 / 1988     (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  93 / 2021     (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     99 / 1988     (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City  93 / 1984     (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       101 / 1938     (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   97 / 1995     (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...MS/RCF