586
FXUS62 KMHX 031149
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
649 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak but quick moving coastal low exits off the coast today
with scattered light rain remaining through early afternoon.
High pressure builds back over the Carolinas in the low`s wake
through Wednesday. Dry cold front crosses late WED night/early
THU with high pressure building back in to round out the week.
Another dry cold front moves through by Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM Mon...Heavy rain and strong winds affecting the OBX
early this morning. Deep southerly tropical-like moisture fee
has given parts of Hatteras Island up to 4+ inches of rain in
one hour, with training convective cells bringing the heavy
rain and occasional lightning. Mid level mesos continue within
this convection, but near sfc stable layer preventing any severe
weather. Further inland, large stratiform rain shield bringing
a steady rain, where totals may add up to an inch through this
morning.

Going through today, robust upper low over the wrn Carolinas
swings through, keeping a supply of ovc deep cloud cover and
ocnl light rain or showers. For this reason, have inc pops a
bit, but kept below likelies (40-50%). With the ovc skies and
rain, temps held down and went on the coolest side of guidance,
with most places hovering around 60 most of the day. Winds turn
nwrly behind the low passage with speeds of 10-20 mph inland, to
20-35 mph coast and esp OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 2 AM Mon...CAA tonight will bring seasonably cool temps
with lows in the 40s and cont drying of the atms. With the mixed
bndry layer, ideal radiational cooling not an issue and no
threat for any frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2 AM Mon...

Tue through Fri...Overall a mild and dry pattern. Coolest night
of the week should be Tue night, where dry high pres passes
overhead ENC. This will bring temps down in the 30s for most,
with 40s on the beaches. Patchy frost is possible. Dry cool
front moves through on Wed only bringing a wind shift from sw to
nwrly. Highs generally 65 to 70 each day, near climo for first
week of Nov.

Sat through Sun...Next cold front will move through on Fri night
or Sat AM, though again will be on the dry side, so no real
sensible weather impacts. Not much of a cooldown behind the
fropa as flow will cont zonal, which means seasonable temps
cont.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12Z Tuesday/...
As of 7 AM Mon...Sub-VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites this
morning as surface low pressure moves up the coast away from
the area, but an upper level low moves in from the west. Light
rain is expected to continue on and off this morning as the
upper level low moves through. Low stratus spreads westward with
the western edge on a line between Greensboro and Charlotte,
therefore will take several hours to lift here in eastern NC as
the low makes its way westward. When skies do lift, it will be a
quick transition to clear skies later this afternoon. After the
expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with no fog or low
stratus expected overnight. Winds should continue to have a
northwest component through the day around 10 kts gusting at
times 15-20 kts with gustiness subsiding after sunset tonight.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 1 AM Mon...Generally VFR conditions are expected through
Friday with high pressure over the area. Winds could gust 25-30
mph Wednesday afternoon, but otherwise good flying conditions
are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 1 AM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Strong Small Craft conditions will continue this morning and
  linger through tonight

- Wind directions variable as low pressure moves through the
  area (East -> North -> Northwest)

Ahead of a low pressure system which will move through the
marine waters later this morning, a warm front is parked right
along the southern OBX and Hatteras Island with strong E/ESE
winds to the east of this boundary at 20-30 kts, and lighter
N/NE winds to the west of the boundary at 10-20 kts.

As the low approaches over the next few hours, winds will be
highly variable in both direction and speed, with some Gale
Force wind gusts possible over the coastal waters off the OBX.
Eventually, winds will come around to the north everywhere
shortly after sunrise, and strengthen to 20-30 kts by around
noon. Winds will become NW this afternoon and continue at around
20-30 kts through tonight.

Seas have come up sharply to due a strong offshore gradient, and
are 6-10 ft (locally higher) early this morning. Seas will
subside to 5-7 ft later this morning and then continue in this
range through tonight.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 1 AM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Improving conditions Tuesday with SCAs ending

- Another round of Small Craft conditions (SW winds) expected
  to develop Wednesday through Thursday morning

- Yet another Small Craft event possible late Friday into the
  weekend

Winds will become NW at 15-25 kts Tuesday morning, and then
weaken to 10-20 kt by the afternoon. Winds will come around to
the SW by Wednesday morning, and then strengthen to 15-25 kts by
the afternoon. Winds will peak at 15-30 kts ahead of a cold
front Wednesday night, and then switch to the N Thursday at
15-25 kts. Winds weaken Thursday night and become easterly by
Friday morning at 5-15 kts. Strong southerly flow then
redevelops late Friday with winds increasing to 15-25 kts.

Seas will be 5-7 ft first thing Tuesday, but will subside to 4-6
ft by the afternoon, and to 3-5 ft by early Tuesday night. 2-4
ft seas expected Wednesday, with an increase to 5-7 ft expected
Wednesday night. Waves will be mostly 3-5 ft Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RTE/SGK
MARINE...SGK