233
FXUS62 KMHX 170136
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
936 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The front then shifts back north on Tuesday with drier high
pressure returning through mid week. Another cold front sweeps
through on Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 845 PM Mon...Heavy rain threat has become more isolated,
as a cluster of storms entering Duplin and Lenoir County shortly
is the main area of concern for high rainfall rates through the
remainder of this evening. Flood watch continues until 2am,
whereafter heavy rain and flood threat will diminish with loss
of significant forcing and heating. Rain chances slowly diminish
through the night, becoming dry for much of the region as we
approach the morning hours. PW`s over 2" and training storms
with slow moving boundary will be the focus for the heavy
rain/flood threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...16/12Z model suite has come in markedly drier
for Tue afternoon, and HREF probs in the ~30% range reflecting
this. Have therefore gone below NBM advertised likelies, as
they are playing catchup to newer model guidance. Have therefore
lowered pops to chc sct mention for thunder Tue afternoon.
Could see a bit more covg on typical sound/sea breezes like
Downeast Carteret newrd through Stumpy Pt, Oregon Inlet region
where 50% pop is advertised. Heating up Tue as ridging begins to
take hold, with highs in the low 90s and heat indices reaching
or exceeding 100 for several hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330AM Sun...

Key Messages:

- Potential for dangerous heat indices midweek into the end of
  next week.

Wednesday through next weekend...Previously mentioned upper trough
will be the main feature of note into the end of the week with this
neutrally tilted trough pushing E`wards into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast by Fri. Currently GFS is the deepest and slowest with this
trough with the Canadian and ECWMF guidance slightly quicker and
weaker with the trough. Either way, at the surface we return to a
more summer like pattern with thunderstorms primarily focused along
the Seabreeze on Wed/Thurs with an incoming surface cold front
from the west becoming the focus for potential shower/tstm
activity on Fri. High pressure ridging then builds into the area
over the weekend once again drying the area out. Of bigger note
will be the hot and muggy conditions expected around midweek as
a combination of temps in the 90s Wed/Thurs and dewpoints in
the 70s will result in hazardous heat indices with "feels like"
temps closer to the 100-110 F range each day. Will have to
monitor trends, but the years first heat advisories may be
needed next week if the current forecast holds. Once cold front
pushes through on Friday temps will decrease slightly and the
excessive heat threat will lower this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 8 PM Mon...

Key Messages

 - Increased TSRA risk to continue into late tonight

A boundary draped across ENC is interacting with the remnants of
an unstable, moist air mass, leading to another round of
scattered TSRA to start off the night. Where TSRA occur, there
will be an accompanying risk of 20-40kt winds and significant
reductions to VIS (LIFR/IFR). CIGs likely VFR outside of
convection this evening, with potential for more widespread
sub- VFR late tonight and early Tue morning with patchy fog and
low stratus. Best chances for IFR at PGV and ISO early Tue
morning.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330AM Sun...Unsettled weather will continue to persist
across the area into midweek as a stalled front will bring a
threat for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to
Eastern North Carolina. A more summer like pattern returns with
diurnal thunderstorm activity developing along the Seabreeze on
Tue/Wed. Either way this will bring a daily threat for sub-VFR
conditions each day. In addition to this, early morning fog
development will remain possible for areas that see rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Mon/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Sct/numerous thunderstorms through this
evening, then quieter weather for Tue. The strongest
thunderstorms will be capable of 35-45kt winds and brief
waterspouts. Swrly flow for general winds in the 5-15 kt range
through tonight. Then, thermal gradient inc local winds on the
Pamlico Sound to 15-20 Tue afternoon into evening, with some
gusts to 25 kt. Because of the localized nature of these winds,
will not issue a SCA attm for tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Monday though Thursday/...
As of 330AM Sun...A stalled frontal boundary will bisect our
waters from west to east, generally from around Lenoir county
east across the Pamlico Sound, and just north of Hatteras Island
into our coastal waters. This stalled front will bring a threat
for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms into Tue across
all our waters with locally enhanced winds and seas noted
within the strongest activity. Front will gradually lift
N`wards through Tue allowing for the entire area to see SW`rly
winds at 10-15 kts with gusts up near 20 kts. By Wed as high
pressure settles into the region and thermal troughing sets up
the gradient will pinch slightly allowing SW`rly winds Tue night
into Wed to increase to 15-20 kts with occasional gusts up near
25 kts at times into Thurs. Seas will generally remain around
2-5 ft through the period keeping us SCA free through at least
midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 3 PM Mon...There will be a continued risk of
thunderstorms with intense rainfall rates through this evening,
which is expected to keep the flood/flash flood risk elevated.
The Flood Watch cont for ENC through late this evening. Ensemble
guidance doesn`t show as substantial of a rainfall footprint
today as what was forecast yesterday. However, given wet
antecedant conditions, it shouldn`t take much rain to cause some
flooding issues. This will especially be the case for the areas
that saw substantial rainfall last night (Greene, Pitt, Martin
Counties). It should be noted that a small, but more
significant, flood risk may develop in the greater Greenville
area if additional heavy rain develops in that area today.
Rivers and streams are running high in that area, and soils are
very saturated after the 3-7" of rain that fell.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
     090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RJ
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK/RCF
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RM/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX