653
FXUS62 KMHX 251024
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
624 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the next several
days. Dangerous heat will continue today along with the chance
for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Typical summertime
pattern returns late week and this weekend. Next frontal system
approaches the east coast mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 625 AM Wed...

Key Messages

 - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm risk this afternoon
   and evening

 - Dangerous heat will continue today

Latest analysis shows strong ridging at the sfc and aloft this
morning, with weak sfc troughing over the coastal plain. Isolated
showers and tstms cont over the central waters this morning.
There should be more than sufficient time for diurnal destabilization
as strong heating quickly ensues in the wake of any morning
convection. Heating of a continued moist boundary layer should
support MLCAPE climbing to at least 2500-4000 J/kg. Meanwhile, a
weak surface boundary is forecast to sag SE into the area as
the daily seabreeze develops. Additionally, a weakness is the
upper level ridge is forecast to develop, allowing a weak
shortwave to move west through ENC. These factors, in addition
to increased low-level convergence appears very supportive of
scattered deep convection developing by early afternoon.
Northeasterly flow aloft should tend to push convection south
and west with time, which is more atypical for this area this
time of year. Eventually a couple of larger convective complexes
may develop, but it looks like this risk will be focused just
outside of ENC. Deep layer shear of 20kt or less, and mostly
unidirectional hodographs, suggest multicell clusters will
develop after a brief window of discrete activity. Given the
steep lapse rates and moderate to strong instability, updrafts
could be fairly intense, and may be supportive of penny to half-
dollar size hail. However, given a lack of better shear, what
appears the most likely is the threat for damaging winds.
Impressively steep low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and DCAPE
of 1500+ j/kg suggests the potential for wind gusts of 60-70+
mph where the most intense cores develop. With time, clustering
of storms and strengthening cold pools could enhance this
potential. The Storm Prediction Center has all of ENC in a
"Marginal" risk, with areas south and west of HWY 70 in a
"Slight" risk. With this event, it should be noted that the
coverage of thunderstorms isn`t expected to be high, but there
is some higher-end severe potential given the factors mentioned
above.

Convection could impact the temp forecast today...but still
looks likely that temps will climb into the mid to upper 90s
combined with dewpoints in the 70s to near 80 in spots will
likely give way to heat index values peaking at 110-115 deg.
The Extreme Heat Warning continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Wed...Scattered convection will likely be ongoing
across the western portions of the forecast area early this
evening, gradually tapering off by midnight. Isolated strong to
svr tstm threat will continue through late eve. Temps will be
slightly cooler than previous nights, with lows falling into the
low to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue through the long term, with heat
   indices 100-105F every afternoon (90-100F along the coast)

Low level heights retreat slightly the rest of the week as the
upper level ridge weakens, and highs drop to the low to mid
90s, with heat indices 100-105F likely. The cumulative effect of
several days with high heat indices (and little relief at
night) is something for those working or spending much time
outside to consider this week as they make preparations for the
heat.

As ridge continues to weaken, trough over central NC and sea
breeze will be two areas to watch for thunderstorm development
each day. Lack of shear paired with ample instability favors
pulse thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Lack of upper level
support keeps PoPs in the slight chance range through Sunday, as
coverage of storms will be isolated to scattered. Next week, a
frontal system will approach the eastern seaboard. While it is
still uncertain if the front will stall to our west or blow
through the region, PoPs do trend upwards mid- week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 625 AM Wed...

Key Messages
 - Patchy MVFR fog possible through 12z this morning
 - TSRA and sub VFR conditions possible this afternoon

Upper ridge will begin to breakdown today. This combined with
improved lift should lead to a gradual increase in the risk of
TSRA, with best chances this afternoon and early evening.
Isolated strong storms possible. Patchy fog will be possible
again overnight and early Thu morning.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure overhead helps keep winds
light to calm, when paired with moist low levels, may bring sub-
VFR conditions each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 625 AM Wed...Latest obs show light SW-W winds less than
10 kt with seas 1-2 ft. Pleasant boating conditions will
continue across the waters through the period. Isolated tstms
possible this morning and again this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, outside of thunderstorm activity, boating conditions
look to remain good. Of note, where thunderstorms occur, there
will be a risk of 40-5kt winds and hail.

LONG TERM /Thursday though Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Fantastic boating conditions are
expected this week as a ridge of high pressure lingers s over
the region. The pressure gradient will remain quite weak, which
will allow sea/sound breezes to play a big part in wind strength
and direction. Light and variable winds below 10 kts are
expected each morning, with winds increasing each afternoon and
evening to S/SW 10-15 kts in response to a developing sea
breeze. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperature records, and record warm low temperatures at
select climate sites through Wednesday (6/25).

**Please note...due to a large data gap from 1940-1955, the
 Greenville COOP records likely do not reflect the "true"
 record high for these days.

Record Warm Low Temperatures for Wednesday morning (6/25)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         75/2011  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    81/2011  (KHSE ASOS)
Morehead City    77/2011  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          75/1952  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     79/2010  (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for Wednesday (6/25)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        101/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    96/1952  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville**    100/1921  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    96/1948  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         101/1952  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     98/1981  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
CLIMATE...MHX