980
FXUS62 KMHX 271940
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
240 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Reinforcing shot of unseasonably cold air will intrude on
eastern NC tonight into Friday. High pressure builds in late
Friday into Saturday, then moves offshore on Sunday. A coastal
low is then possible early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - The coldest air of the season moves in over the next couple
   of days

Cool and dry airmass continues to build over much of the
southeastern CONUS this afternoon as yesterday`s cold front
continues to progress further over the open Atlantic. This
morning`s thick cirrus band, which had kept temperatures very
steady, has now given way to good insolation allowing temps to
build back into the mid 50s.

Main focus for tonight will be secondary CAA push as reinforcing
mid-level shortwave pivots overhead, ushering in anomalously
low temperatures aloft (up to 15 degrees below normal). Despite
clear skies, northwest winds will remain elevated and prevent
more robust cooling overnight. Regardless, lows will fall into
the upper 20s to around 30 for all inland zones with upper 30s
across OBX. Wind surge will be felt more over OBX where gusts up
to 25-30 mph are likely overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

Friday will, by far, be the coldest day of the week as cold
trough settles overhead and 850mb temps fall below 0C. With
modest CAA continuing into the day, highs will struggle to get
out of the 40s. Clear and dry conditions expected as high
pressure continues to expand over the area from the west.
Pressure gradient will remain pinched between the high and front
offshore, keeping gusty northwesterly winds in place for another
day. Combined with very dry air as Tds fall well into the 10s,
some fire weather concerns exist - see the FIRE WEATHER section
for details.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Coldest night of the season Friday night with some 10s
   possible

 - Monitoring the potential for meaningful rainfall early next
   week

High pressure then settles in Friday night, leading to decent
radiational cooling conditions, with lows in the low to mid 20s
inland, and upper 20s to mid 30s along the coast. Across the
coastal plain, lows may fall into the upper teens where winds
remain the lightest. One caveat for lows Friday night is that
there may still be just enough of a gradient to prevent complete
decoupling, especially along/east of HWY 17. Additionally, high
clouds moving in may offset radiational cooling effects some.
Regardless, it will be well below normal.

Cold, below normal temperatures continue into Saturday, with
highs still struggling to get out of the 40s, and lows falling
into the 20s and 30s. Increasing cloudcover should prevent lows
from getting as cold Saturday night as what is expected for
Friday night.

As we move into next week, attention will turn to a pattern
change across the U.S. Aloft, a positively-tilted trough is
forecast to develop across the western/central U.S., putting the
eastern U.S. in a more active, southwesterly flow regime.
18z/00z guidance has come into better agreement regarding the
overall synoptic pattern next week. The main point of difference
still centers around the potential development of a coastal low
in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. The latest suite of guidance
is now honing in on a 1005- 1010mb SFC low tracking northeast
from the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas or Mid-Atlantic region
during this time. In general, a notable percentage of
deterministic and machine learning guidance have trended deeper
with this low. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance has stayed fairly
consistent from run-to-run (ie. not yet showing a deeper trend).
There is plenty of time to iron out the details, but the
deeper, and more consistent, trend is notable.

Based on all of the above, confidence continues to steadily
increase regarding the potential for widespread, meaningful
precipitation, with ensemble guidance now showing a 40-60%
chance of exceeding 0.50" of rain across all of ENC.

Temperatures next week will be highly dependent on the track of
the coastal low. A track near or just offshore (currently
favored by guidance) would lead to colder temperatures and a
cold rain. A track further inland (currently not as favored),
would lead to warmer air and a risk of thunderstorms.

In the wake of the low, dry and cooler air looks to settle back
into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Key Messages:

-VFR through the TAF period, with gusty NW winds possible this
 afternoon (~15 kts) and Friday afternoon (~20 kts)

Predominant VFR conditions expected across Eastern NC through
Saturday. NW winds persist over the region as high pressure
builds in from the west and becomes centered over the area on
Saturday. Winds may gust upwards of 20 knots Friday afternoon.

Sun through Mon...The high moves offshore Saturday night with
precip chances increasing later on Sun as next cold front
approaches, and along with it a chance for sub VFR cond
developing.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - SCA in effect for all offshore waters and inland sounds
   tonight into Friday

 - Deteriorating marine conditions likely next Tuesday with
   increasing threat of Gales

Sub-SCA conditions in place over area waters this afternoon with
northwest winds 10-15 kt and seas 3-5 feet as high pressure
builds in from the west. Conditions will worsen tonight as winds
increase with reinforcing shot of cold air, rising to 20-25 kt
with gusts to 30 kt for all offshore and soundside waters. We
would not be surprised if an odd Gale-force gust occurred over
the warmer Gulf Stream waters. A SCA is now in effect for all
zones except inland river (sans Alligator) starting tonight and
extending into Fri afternoon.

Outlook: The lightest winds of the holiday weekend are
expected Saturday and Sunday (5-15kt). During this time, seas of
2-3 ft are expected. Attention then turns to early next week as
guidance continues to show a good signal for a coastal low to
impact the area. There are still details to sort out here, but
probability is increasing for a risk of Gales especially across
offshore zones.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

Key Messages:

 - Fire weather concerns this afternoon and Friday late morning
   to evening with gusty winds and low relative humidities.

Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe
drought conditions with a long duration of little to no
rainfall. Behind the cold front, dry air ushers into the
region, allowing relative humidities to drop into the 25-35%
range tomorrow afternoon. In addition, wind gusts will be near
20 mph today, and 20-25 mph tomorrow. Considering the drought
conditions and decreasing greenery as the fall season
progresses, we will see an increased potential for fire weather
concerns tomorrow given the higher winds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
     for AMZ131-135-158-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
     for AMZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday
     for AMZ154-156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RM/MS
AVIATION...DAG
MARINE...MS
FIRE WEATHER...MHX