392
FXUS62 KMHX 080800
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Record highs will be threatened for some on Friday and Saturday
as very warm high pressure dominates. A cold front will move
through Sunday and bring showers to the area Sat night into Sun
morning. A return to colder and drier early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Backdoor front pushes through this morning with
nerly flow ensuing. Temps will cool back down to the mid 60s
interior, to mid 50s nrn OBX, but overall temps remain well
above climo. Skies will be mostly sunny with only sct cirrus
streaming through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Mild temperatures for tonight, with lows cont
well above normal, generally in the 40s, with low 50s on the
beaches. Threat for fog and low stratus overnight due to moist
erly flow and lingering low level moisture in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thu...

Friday through Saturday...Front will lift back north as a warm
front and bring inc hts/thicknesses in it`s wake. Highs will
soar into the mid 70s across interior zones, with 60s on the
immediate coast with the onshore flow. Some record highs may be
threatened both Fri and Sat (see record section below).

A weak prefrontal trough could bring some light rain showers or
sprinkles on Sat morning, and have pops in the 20-30% range for
this threat. By afternoon, skies bcome mo sunny as area will be
under even stronger deep layer swrly flow and brief ridging
ahead of approaching strong cold front.

Sunday...Aformentioned cold front sweeps through on Sunday.
Shower chances maximize during the morning, and although QPF not
expected to be overly impressive, strong forcing and lift in
place and have raised pops as a result into the low end likely
range (50-70%). CAA during the afternoon with falling temps
late in the day behind fropa.

Early next week...Cool but seasonable temperatures and mostly
dry weather is forecast for early next week as deep trough
swings through with lowered hts/thicknesses. Highs in the 40s
for Mon then 50s on Tue as moderating airmass ensues. Lows will
be in the 20s to near 30.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 110 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Sub-VFR conditions through early this morning

 - Sub-VFR chances return tonight into Friday morning

MVFR/IFR conditions south off hwy 264, with worst conditions
expected in Onslow and Duplin counties through the morning. While
moisture will be fairly limited, modest moisture
pooling/moistening ahead of the front along the southern
coastline, leading to the chance for patchy fog and/or low
stratus for a few hours early this morning. We could also see
some sea fog this morning between Surf City and Cape Lookout,
but it will stay far away from all TAF sites.

Today, light northeasterly winds will prevail with only mid-
to- high clouds over the region.

Tonight into Friday morning, winds become light to calm allowing
for saturation at the lowest levels. This brings another night
of fog/low stratus concerns,

Outlook: Predominant VFR conditions expected beyond Friday as
high pressure builds in to end the work week into Saturday.
Rain chances this weekend could bring reductions in flight
categories.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 AM Thu...

Key Messages...

 - Benign boating conditions today as winds will be nerly 5-15
   kt and seas 2-4 ft.

 - Swrly winds inc to 15-20 kt with some higher gusts Fri/Fri
   night on the Gulf, with 5-15 kt elsewhere.

 - Strengthening swrly winds to 20-30 kt, highest on the Gulf
   for Saturday into Saturday night ahead of strong cold front.

 - Cold front swings through on Sunday with gusty nwrly winds
   keeping SCA conditions through Sunday night.

Today...Backdoor front brings winds around to the ne today
though speeds will be in the 10-15 kt range. Seas will be in the
2-3 ft range.

Friday through Friday Night...Winds turn swrly through the day,
with speeds inc to 15-20 kt on the Gulf with gusts nearing 25
kt between C Lookout and C Hatteras. Elsewhere, winds will be in
the 5-15 kt range.

Saturday through Sunday...A strong cold front will approach this
weekend, increasing S to SW winds to 20-30 kt, highest on the
waters south of Oregon Inlet where ocnl gale gusts possible when
winds peak Sat night. Front passes on Sunday, with nwrly winds
developing in its wake and peaking Sun night with SCA
continuing.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High temps for 01/09 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        79/1937  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   73/1937  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      75/1930  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   70/2013  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         71/2013  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    77/1974  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 01/10 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        78/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   70/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      79/1937  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   73/1983  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         75/1974  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    80/1974  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL/OJC
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...TL