623
FXUS62 KMHX 030719
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
219 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push southward across ENC through
sunrise today. An area of low pressure will then deepen along
this front today before moving farther offshore Sunday, bringing
elevated winds and seas along with rain chances. High pressure
then builds back in by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...Latest observations and analysis show a
weak cold front extending across much of NC and currently
located between New Bern and Greenville. This front will
continue to sink southward through this morning, eventually
settling south of the Crystal Coast. Simultaneously, a
shortwave currently located over the Southern Plains will swing
eastward through the day today along with an associated weak
surface low currently located near the MS/GA border. This low
will then strengthen along the stalled frontal boundary south of
the ENC coastline today into tonight, with increasing low-to-
mid level frontogenesis and WAA developing in advance of the
approaching shortwave and associated area of low pressure. This
increased forcing will gradually lead to light-to-moderate rain
overspreading the region, with chances increasing from west to
east across the forecast area after sunrise this morning. May
see some light rain prior to sunrise, but remaining low-level
dry air should hold steadier rain off until after sunrise.
Guidance has continued to advertise lower rainfall totals, with
amounts now generally expected in the 0.25-0.5" range (slightly
higher amounts possible along the Crystal Coast and southern
Outer Banks). Cooler northeast flow behind the cold front and
expansive cloud cover/rainfall will keep highs on the cooler
side today, with temperatures topping out in the low-to-mid 40s
across the area (upper 40s to 50 along the Crystal Coast and
Outer Banks).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...Strengthening low pressure will begin to
pull away from shore tonight, with rain chances gradually
tapering off from west to east this evening. With strengthening
northeasterly winds on the backside of the low, wind gusts of
25-35 mph expected along the OBX early tonight before the low
shifts farther offshore. High pressure building into the region
will then bring clearing skies through the rest of the overnight
hours, with lows dropping to near/just below freezing across
ENC (lows near 40 OBX).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...

Sunday/Monday...Light northerly flow behind the departing low
will bring slightly cooler high temperatures as high pressure
builds in late this weekend. High temperatures will be
generally in the 50s through Monday.

Tuesday/Wednesday...High pressure shifts offshore early-to-mid
next week. In response, winds swing to southwesterly, which will
allow temps to climb well into the 60s Tuesday/Wednesday.

Thursday/Friday...A weak cold front may approach and stall out
near ENC late weak as a shortwave trough swings quickly across
the mid-Atlantic. Another frontal system may then swing through
the region next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1 AM Saturday...

Key Messages...

 - IFR/MVFR conditions develop this afternoon through late
   tonight

A weak cold front currently located just south of the Albemarle
Sound will push south through ENC through 09z bringing an
northeasterly wind shift. Strong, gusty winds are not
anticipated with this wind shift. Low pressure will then track
east along this front today through tonight, bringing widespread
-RA and sub-VFR conditions. A period of IFR, or lower, CIGs
appears possible this afternoon and evening, most likely (HREF
probs 70-90%) along the coast, including EWN and OAJ, but
chances decrease farther west (HREF probs 40-60% at ISO and
20-30% at PGV). The low pulls away from the area after midnight
with improving conditions late tonight as drier air filters into
the area.

Outlook: Any lingering sub-VFR cigs should quickly clear early
Sunday with HREF probs showing less than 20% chance after 12z.
High pressure builds into the area Sunday, the slides offshore
Monday with dry conditions and pred VFR expected through mid-
week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 AM Saturday...

Key Messages...

 - Low pressure moving along the coast will bring another round
   of gusty winds and elevated seas beginning this afternoon and
   lingering through tomorrow

Latest analysis and observations depict a cold front slowly
pushing southward through ENC. As of 2 AM Saturday, the cold
front was situated just south of the Pamlico River and Hatteras
Island, with northeasterly winds 10-15 knots and gusts to 20 kts
to the north of the front. Ahead (south) of the front, winds
remain westerly at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. This front
will continue to sag southward through this morning before
stalling south of the ENC coastline.

A low pressure system will then strengthen along this boundary
later today before pushing farther offshore tonight/tomorrow. NE
winds will strengthen in response to the deepening low, peaking
tonight at 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Occasional gusts to
35 kts will be possible across the Gulf Stream waters, mainly
between Capes Lookout and Hatteras, for a brief period early
tonight. Have opted to continue to hold off on issuing any Gale
headlines as most guidance continues to suggest winds/gusts
should largely remain sub-Gale Force; however, a small camp of
guidance (including the Euro Ensemble) does depict greater
potential for Gale conditions to develop early tonight. This
will continue to be monitored as Gale headlines could be needed
later today should the low and its associated winds trend
stronger. Elsewhere, high-res guidance continues to suggest
that conditions will remain sub-SCA across the northern sounds
and Pamlico River, so have opted to continue to keep these
waters out of the existing SCAs for now. The need for SCA
headlines for these waters will continue to be evaluated.

High pressure then builds back in late Sunday as winds shift to
northwesterly and conditions begin to gradually improve. Winds
will then gradually shift to southwesterly Monday night into
Tuesday as high pressure shifts offshore.

Seas should largely remain 3-5 ft today before quickly ramping
up to 4-8 ft tonight. Seas then subside to 4-6 ft Sunday and
2-4 ft Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST
     Sunday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST
     Sunday for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EST
     Sunday for AMZ150-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EST
     Sunday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...ZC