780
FXUS62 KMHX 311841
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
241 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Tuesday: decreased temperatures and Pops, increased winds

Wednesday: increased temperatures and winds

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Drier and cooler conditions today

2) Cold front approaches tomorrow with chances for showers and
thunderstorms area wide

3) Trending drier and cooler for Tuesday with the coastal low
staying farther offshore

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Today is a beautiful end to May with high
pressure overhead supporting few clouds and below climo
temperatures and dew points. Similarly to last night, winds are
expected to go light to calm. This will be a good radiational
cooling setup to support lows in the mid to upper-50s inland
and low-60s along the beaches. Ahead of a cold front that`s
forecast to cross the area Monday night, chances for scattered
showers will start to increase from south to north tonight but
should remain at 25% or less until after sunrise.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures will rebound tomorrow as the high
moves offshore and return flow brings increasing moisture ahead
of an approaching cold front. The front is forecast to cross the
area tomorrow night with shower and thunderstorm chances
peaking between the afternoon and evening (50-75%).

KEY MESSAGE 3...A positively tilted upper-level trough will
swing across the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday, which will help keep a
developing coastal low farther offshore. This pattern continues
to trend the forecast towards an overall cooler and drier
solution. There`s a slight chances that some wrap around showers
on the back side of the offshore low could advect onto land
through early afternoon, but the majority of the area looks to
remain precip free for the bulk of the day. More notable than
the precip will be the breezy northeasterly gradient winds,
which could gust to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the
coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the overnight
hours. Chances for showers will start to increase from south to
north tomorrow morning with thunderstorms becoming more likely
in the afternoon hours. A BKN deck of MVFR CIGs should develop
between 12-15Z with reductions in VIS possible within any shower
or thunderstorm.

Outlook: Tuesday has trended drier but it will be quite breezy
throughout the day with NE gusts to 15-20 kt inland and 20-25
kt along the coast. Winds will remain out of the NE on Wednesday
and there`s a slight chance of showers (highest along the
coast). Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will continue to improve today but 6+ ft seas are
expected to linger across the central waters until tomorrow
evening.

Outlook: Improved conditions will be short-lived as the next
round of SCA winds and seas are expected to develop by early
Tuesday morning with a low developing offshore. A pinched
gradient will bring a surge of NEerly winds gusting to 25-30+ kt
Tuesday evening and seas building to 6-10 ft by Tuesday night.
There`s potential for Gales south of Cape Hatteras and
especially in the 20-60 nm zone south of Cape Lookout. Winds
should drop below SCA criteria by Wednesday evening but elevated
seas could persist into early Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...OJC