906
FXUS62 KMHX 121904
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
304 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled pattern expected through Monday

2) Warm and mostly dry conditions expected for much of next
week with high draped over the Southern U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...This afternoon, a warm front stretches west to
east across northern NC. Based on surface obs, the eastern end
of the front has recently cleared north of the Albemarle
Sound/NRN OBX area, putting all of ENC in a broad warm sector
that encompasses much of the Southeast U.S.

South of the front, there appears to be some residual
subsidence/capping in the wake of the shortwave that moved
offshore this morning, and for now this appears to be delaying
the onset of cumulus development. Continued southerly flow and
moisture advection plus large-scale forcing for ascent with the
arrival of the next shortwave (currently moving out of SC)
should prove sufficient for the development of deep convection
in a zone along the inland- advancing seabreeze. With deeper
southerly flow present, the seabreeze should be more progressive
today, and the duration of higher rainfall rates should be
limited over any one area. Even so, PWATs of 2"+ and moderate
instability should support areas of heavy rainfall along with
the potential for minor/nuisance-style flooding, especially in
urban and poor drainage areas. The risk of flash flooding looks
low today, though, given the expected progressive nature of
convection today. Deep, moist profiles today will favor lowered
DCAPE compared to yesterday. This plus weak deep layer shear
should keep the risk of severe weather LOW.

The environment on Sunday looks fairly similar to today`s.
However, deep layer shear is forecast to be ever-so-slightly
higher (25kt Sunday compared to 15kt today). This may allow a
slightly improved storm organization potential and perhaps a
slightly better chance of a few storms reaching severe, or near-
severe, levels. The primary risk should be strong winds, but
perhaps some hail can occur in the tallest, most sustained,
cores. The focus for convection should be the seabreeze and an
inland trough. The low-level flow may veer to southwesterly,
helping keep the seabreeze less progressive compared to today,
and storms may not be as progressive. With a high PWAT airmass
still in place, this could allow a slight bump up in the risk
for urban and poor drainage flooding, with at least a low-end
risk of flash flooding.

Finally, a cold front will sweep south through the area on
Monday. Guidance continues to trend on the slower side with the
passage, and now this sets up the potential for the front to
move through during peak heating on Monday. This will be
something to watch as deep layer shear is forecast to be higher
(~30kt), and may support a strong/severe thunderstorm risk
conditional on sufficient instability being realized.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper level ridging quickly rebuilds across the
Southern U.S. next week. Meanwhile, a notably strong surface
high will nose south along the lee of the Appalachians.
Synoptically this is a very dry pattern for the region. Despite
warming low-level thicknesses beneath the ridge, the
northeasterly flow around the high should help to hold temps
down some. Additionally, the airmass will be drier with less
humidity, making it feel not as hot. It will feel a little more
like fall, especially at night and in the morning.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

An upper level wave interacting with a very moist and
moderately unstable airmass should support a risk of SCT SHRA
and TSRA through early this evening across ENC. With this TAF
issuance, PROB30s/TEMPOs have been added now that confidence in
timing and location have increased. Where TSRA occur, there is
the potential for a brief period of IFR/LIFR VIS, as well a wind
gusts to 30kt. In the wake of the afternoon TSRA activity,
another round of sub-VFR CIGs appears likely overnight into
Sunday morning. For now, stratus is favored over BR/FG. The TAFs
will continue to show MVFR CIGs during this time, but guidance
suggests the potential for IFR CIGs, especially at KISO and
KPGV. Low CIG should scatter out and rise to VFR conditions
between 14-16z.

Outlook: Another risk of scattered TSRA is expected on Sunday,
with an accompanying risk of IFR/LIFR VIS, hail, and wind gusts
to 40kt. Drier air begins to move in Sunday night, but doesn`t
fully knock down the TSRA risk until Tuesday. VFR conditions are
then expected to prevail through mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds of 15-20kt are common across most waters this
afternoon, with some enhancement noted in the vicinity of
various thunderstorm outflow boundaries moving north through the
area. Occasional gusts of 25-30kt will be possible where those
outflows move through. Meanwhile, seas are generally 2-3ft at
5-7s. These conditions are expected to last into Sunday as the
overall weather pattern remains about the same. There will
continue to be a risk of thunderstorms during this time as well.

Outlook: Winds will become westerly Sunday night and lay down
to 5- 15kt for a short time. Stronger northerly winds then
develop from north to south across all waters Monday afternoon
and evening as a reinforcing cold front moves through. The
northerly surge of wind is expected to be accompanied by an
increased risk of 20-30kt winds. Marine headlines will likely be
needed for a portion of the waters Monday into Monday night for
the increased winds. For the coastal waters, seas will quickly
build to 5-8ft with the northerly wind surge. Guidance suggests
an extended period of northeasterly winds and elevated seas, and
marine headlines may be needed for much of the upcoming week
for the nearshore coastal waters for 6ft+ seas.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM