803
FXUS62 KMHX 022342
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
742 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide quiet weather through the end of the
week with a gradual warming trend. A cold front will move
through the area this weekend, with high pressure building in
late weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 730 PM Tue...Only concern tonight will be patchy fog.
With calm conditions and a clear sky, soundings all point to
some patchy fog inland. Will include in the forecast based on
ideal conditions. Main lacking factor will be the recent dry
weather and a very shallow nature to the moisture. Lows in the
50s inland to near 70 along the Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tue...Very similar weather expected Wednesday.
Main different will be a tad more sunshine, with model soundings
not showing a layer of moisture around 5,000 feet like we have
today. So more of a mostly sunny sky Wednesday with temps
similar or generally in the lower 80s. A bit cooler on the Outer
Banks with a flow off the ocean.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Tue...

Key Messages

 - Temperatures gradually warming late week into Saturday

 - Mostly dry this week, with precip chances increasing this
   weekend into early next week

Wednesday through Friday...The pattern will remain active with
sfc high pressure ridging in from the NE, upper troughing over
the eastern US while multiple shortwaves pivot through. Weak
cold front will approach the area Thu night and Friday, though
will likely stall and dissipate to the west. Despite the
pattern, looks to remain mostly dry over eastern NC, with only
potential for isolated showers. Temps remain below avg Wed
gradually warming closer to climo by the end of the week as
NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly and low level thicknesses
increase. Temps will climb back towards 90 deg inland Fri.

Saturday through Monday...Complex low pressure system will
continue to push through Canada, while upper trough pivots
through the eastern US, and cold front approaches from the west.
Still some timing differences with the frontal passage, but
general consensus at this time looks like Saturday night into
early Sunday. Ahead of the front Saturday, moist SSW flow will
allow for temps to warm into the low 90s inland and mid/upper
80s along the coast. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms will be possible Sat and Sat night. Svr risk looks low at
this time. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday
and early next week. Post frontal NE flow will allow for drier
and cooler air to filter back into the region. High temps will
fall back into the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s-70
deg. Sct showers and iso storms Sun into early next week, with
highest chances during peak heating. Instability will remain
limited with onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Thursday/...
As of 730 PM Tues...VFR conditions present across all terminals
early this evening. Guidance continues to advertise at least
some potential for patchy fog across ENC tonight, with greatest
potential for inland terminals (ISO/PGV). While guidance shows a
lower chance for coastal terminals (OAJ/EWN), potential has
increased enough to warrant the addition of a TEMPO group for
OAJ. With calm winds, most model guidance shows a very shallow
layer of moisture developing near the surface, especially
inland, along with good radiational cooling conditions under
clear/mostly clear skies. However, forecast soundings indicate
this layer will be quite shallow, which may lend more towards
patchy fog and obs bouncing between restrictions. Given this
shallow nature, confidence is not yet high enough to include
prevailing groups for terminals. Fog potential will continue to
be monitored for future cycles.

VFR conditions are then expected Wednesday with light
northeasterly winds.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 215 AM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. While probs remains low, there will be potential for
patchy sub-VFR fog and/or stratus each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 730 PM Tue...Winds and seas continue to show a downtrend.
Given waves subsiding below 6 feet north of Oregon Inlet, the
SCA for the northern coastal waters has been allowed to expire.
Seas are expected to continue to diminish overnight. No changes
to other SCAs as of this update.

Northeast winds by Wednesday drop below 15 KTS, with seas
continuing to subside to 2 to 4 feet.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
As of 215 AM Tue...NNE winds 10-20 kt will grad ease to 5-15 kt
through the day Wed with seas 3-5 ft subsiding to 2-4 ft, as
high pressure ridges in from the north. Winds expected to remain
light but gradually veer to the E-SE Thu and S-SW Fri and Sat
as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas will remain at
2-4 ft late Wed into the first part of the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...EH
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/ZC
MARINE...CQD/MS/ZC