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FNUS72 KMHX 271120
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for GOCR 7...NC State Parks
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
720 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on August 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION....
Basic FireWx Disco...A drier airmass fills in behind the cold front
currently located in excess of 100nm E of Hatt. MinRHs bottom out
in the low 40%s this afternoon at your spot location. But, winds
generally out of the NW/N remain light through the day with more
onshore flow along the immediate coast developing late as
localized high pressure center drifts over the Atlantic.

# --- WINDS --- #
Your spot`s proximity to the PamRiver makes the wind forecast very
difficult. The wind forecast you see below is strictly for the
BACKGROUND winds. On the smaller scale, river breeze circulation is
likely to develop right over the fire location. But, the light,
generally Nerly winds, will act to pin the river breeze to the coast
early until later, ~early afternoon. Be on the lookout for winds
becoming onshore (out of the WSW-SW) during peak heating, starting
around 13-1500edt-ish.

I will pass along to dayshift to monitor for river breeze circulation
development and passage on radar, but I have a feeling you`ll see/feel
it before we do.
# ------------- #

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph in the late morning
                    and early afternoon becoming light.
Mixing Height.......Max 6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 8 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 54509 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 3.
ADI.................Max 66.
Stability class.....1.
Sfc pressure........30.08 to 30.14 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   6   8   11  13  18  28  33
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............72  76  79  80  81  81  81  81
RH..............66  58  50  45  42  41  41  41
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   4   4   4   4   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.    5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 3.1 4.5 5.3 6.2 6.8 6.7 6.1
Transp wind dir.N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.8   7   7   8   8   8   7   7
LVORI...........3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............17  27  39  53  61  66  56  52
Vrate mph-ft/1K.13  21  31  43  50  55  46  42
Sfc pres (in)...013 014 013 012 011 009 008 008

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy then
                    becoming partly cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the east
                    early in the evening.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 7 mph shifting to the east 6 to 9
                    mph early in the evening.
Vent Rate...........Min 2530 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
ADI.................Min 3.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........30.09 to 30.17 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........39  49  56  50  36  29  26  18  14  22  38  47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............79  76  73  70  68  66  65  64  63  63  63  63
RH..............47  54  64  73  81  87  93  97  100 100 100 97
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..4   5   5   6   6   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.5                           5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.N   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.6   7   9   9   9   8   7   7   7   7   7   6
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   4   6   6   8   9   9   9   8
ADI.............23  5   6   6   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.18  5   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
Sfc pres (in)...009 011 012 014 016 017 017 017 016 016 016 016

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 7 mph shifting to the south 6 to
                    9 mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 42665 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 44.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........30.10 to 30.19 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51  60  64  65  66  66  66  67  67  65  60  58
Weather cov.....                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............64  65  67  71  75  78  80  81  82  82  81  80
RH..............93  90  84  73  64  56  52  49  46  46  49  51
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   4   5   4   4   5   5   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.5   5       5   5           9   9   9   14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 1.4 2.6 4.3 5.1 4.9 5.3 4.8 4.7 4.6
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   7   6   7   7   7   7   7   6   8   9   9
LVORI...........6   5   5   3   2   1   1   1   2   1   1   1
ADI.............5   7   6   13  23  37  44  39  24  33  37  37
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3   3   2   10  18  30  35  34  30  39  43  42
Sfc pres (in)...017 018 018 019 018 018 017 015 013 012 010 010

$$
Forecaster...Bowen
Requested by...Laura Webster
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2520804.0/MHX
.DELDT 08/27/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL laura.webster@ncparks.gov