342
FNUS72 KMHX 241847
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Luther banks 2...NCFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
247 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 EDT on June 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 8 PM this evening.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this
afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong to severe, with
potential for damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and
heavy rain. Forecast rainfall amounts 0.1-0.25", with higher
amounts possible. Hot and and mostly dry weather expected
Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday will be the next best chance for
more widespread rainfall.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely
this afternoon and early evening.
LAL.................3 until 1600, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming west. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing Height.......Max 4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 75670 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 1.
ADI.................Max 67.
Stability class.....3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.63 to 29.66 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........71  74  75
Weather cov.....CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC LKY LKY
LAL.............3   4   4
Temp............93  91  89
RH..............54  56  59
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...4.4 3.5 2.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W
Transp wind spd.17  17  15
LVORI...........1   1   1
ADI.............67  60  37
Haines index....4   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.76  61  30
Sfc pres (in)...966 964 963

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Showers and thunderstorms likely early in the
                    evening, then chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms overnight.
LAL.................4 until 1900, then 3 until 2400, then 2 until
                    0100, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 68.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph,
                    then shifting to the east around 5 mph late in
                    the evening then becoming light. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east 5 to 10
                    mph overnight.
Vent Rate...........Min 2760 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
ADI.................Min 3.
Stability class.....4.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.64 to 29.85 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........75  73  73  69  61  57  52  43  38  36  33  31
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
LAL.............4   3   3   3   3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............87  85  82  80  77  75  74  73  72  71  68  68
RH..............63  70  77  79  87  94  93  97  97  97  100 100
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   S   SE  E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.            5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.8
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   NE  E
Transp wind spd.13  9   8   9   9   7   7   7   8   8   7   9
LVORI...........2   3   4   4   5   6   6   8   8   8   9   9
ADI.............27  6   5   6   6   3   3   3   4   4   3   4
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.21  13  4   4   4   3   3   3   3   8   5   8
Sfc pres (in)...964 966 969 971 974 977 978 980 981 982 984 985

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 15 mph.
Mixing Height.......Max 6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 59454 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
ADI.................Max 67.
Stability class.....3.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.87 to 29.91 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........28     17     11     13     28     30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............68     74     82     88     91     92
RH..............100    87     63     48     42     41
20 ft wind......NE 3   E 4    E 6    E 6    E 6    SE 9
20 ft wind gust.5      5             9      9      14
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1200   2700   4800   6300   5300
Transport wind..E 12   E 13   E 14   E 12   E 9    SE 10
LVORI...........9      4      1      1      1      1
ADI.............5      20     47     64     64     63
Haines index....3      4      4      4      4      4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5      16     37     55     58     55
Sfc pres (in)...29.87  29.90  29.91  29.91  29.89  29.88

$$
Forecaster...Dail
Requested by...Christopher Wilson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416608.0/MHX
.DELDT 06/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Christopher.wilson@ncagr.gov