413
FNUS72 KMHX 281335 AAA
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for MH Bay...UPDATED
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
935 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on September 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
A relatively dry airmass will be in place around the fire area
over the next couple of days. Winds will be light and variable,
but in general, they should be northerly in the morning, then
shift to southerly each afternoon due to an afternoon sea breeze.
Despite deep mixing, there won`t be much wind in the mixed layer,
and vent rates will be low.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming south 5 to 10 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 7 mph shifting to the west 5 to 8
                    mph late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    southwest around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 21045 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Max 26.
Stability class.....2.
Sfc pressure........29.87 to 29.92 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   2   2   1   1   0   1   2   2   2   4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............61  64  68  71  74  77  79  80  80  80  79
RH..............81  75  68  63  59  54  49  47  48  51  52
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   NW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..4   5   4   3   3   3   4   6   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.5       5   5   5   5   5   9   10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.1
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW  S
Transp wind spd.7   7   6   5   5   7   7   7   8   9   9
LVORI...........4   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............7   7   7   7   10  20  23  25  26  21  21
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3   3   5   6   8   16  18  20  21  18  17
Sfc pres (in)...988 990 991 992 992 992 990 989 988 987 987

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 9 mph shifting to the west 5 to
                    6 mph overnight.
Vent Rate...........Min 1609 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Min 2.
Stability class.....4.
Sfc pressure........29.88 to 29.96 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........6   9   10  13  13  8   10  12  12  14  9   10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............77  75  74  72  70  69  68  68  67  66  66  65
RH..............58  62  64  71  76  81  84  84  87  90  90  93
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W   SW  W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..8   7   7   6   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.9   9   9       5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.9   8   8   7   6   5   5   6   6   6   5   5
LVORI...........2   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   5   5
ADI.............21  4   4   3   3   2   2   3   3   3   2   2
Vrate mph-ft/1K.16  8   6   5   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2
Sfc pres (in)...988 990 992 993 995 995 996 996 996 995 995 996

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming southeast
                    5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 5 mph shifting to the south 5 to
                    10 mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 19320 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Max 24.
Stability class.....4.
Sfc pressure........29.97 to 30.04 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24  28  18  19  22  19  10  16  11  23  27  26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............64  64  65  68  73  76  78  79  80  80  80  80
RH..............97  100 97  84  66  60  58  58  56  56  56  58
20 FT wind dir..NW  N   N   N   N   NE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..4   4   3   3   2   2   3   4   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   9   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.6 3.3 3.7 3.4 2.3 1.7 1.7
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  N   NW  W   S   S   S   SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   5   3   5   5   7   8   10  9
LVORI...........5   5   5   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............2   5   5   6   11  11  19  21  24  24  22  21
Vrate mph-ft/1K.1   1   1   4   9   9   15  17  19  19  17  16
Sfc pres (in)...997 999 001 002 004 004 003 002 000 999 998 998

$$
Forecaster...Lonka
Requested by...Barrett Baker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622642.0/MHX
.DELDT 09/28/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL norton.baker@gmail.com