Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
248
FGUS63 KMSR 241239
ESGMIN
MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
639 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2024
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 12/30/2024 - 03/30/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:West Branch Lac Qui Parle River
DAWM5 39.0 40.0 42.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2 17.0 22.0 24.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Minnesota River
BSLM5 970.0 971.5 973.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MVOM5 14.0 16.0 17.5 <5 11 <5 5 <5 <5
GTEM5 885.0 889.0 892.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Redwood River
MSHM5 14.0 17.0 18.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
RWDM5 6.0 15.0 16.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Minnesota River
MTNM5 21.0 23.0 26.0 8 13 <5 6 <5 <5
NULM5 800.0 804.0 806.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cottonwood River
SPFM5 22.0 27.0 32.0 11 16 <5 5 <5 <5
NWUM5 11.0 13.0 16.0 6 12 <5 5 <5 <5
:Minnesota River
MNKM5 22.0 25.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HENM5 732.0 736.0 739.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
JDNM5 25.0 28.0 34.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 1230 Z DH12 /DC2412241239/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
: Valid Period: 12/30/2024 - 03/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:West Branch Lac Qui Parle River
DAWM5 32.2/ 32.2/ 32.5/ 32.8/ 33.2/ 33.6/ 34.1
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2 10.7/ 11.1/ 12.0/ 12.7/ 13.9/ 15.4/ 16.3
:Minnesota River
BSLM5 965.6/ 965.7/ 965.9/ 966.2/ 966.4/ 966.5/ 966.6
MVOM5 5.1/ 5.4/ 7.0/ 9.0/ 11.3/ 12.3/ 13.7
GTEM5 880.8/ 880.9/ 881.5/ 882.2/ 882.8/ 883.2/ 883.7
:Redwood River
MSHM5 7.8/ 7.9/ 8.1/ 8.3/ 9.3/ 10.1/ 12.8
RWDM5 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.0/ 3.6/ 4.2/ 5.9
:Minnesota River
MTNM5 11.9/ 12.1/ 13.1/ 16.1/ 17.7/ 20.3/ 21.9
NULM5 788.2/ 788.3/ 788.9/ 790.8/ 792.5/ 795.4/ 797.3
:Cottonwood River
SPFM5 14.5/ 14.6/ 14.7/ 15.4/ 17.9/ 22.3/ 25.0
NWUM5 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.6/ 6.3/ 7.5/ 9.8/ 11.6
:Minnesota River
MNKM5 7.8/ 7.8/ 8.2/ 9.6/ 11.3/ 13.9/ 16.1
HENM5 718.9/ 719.0/ 719.5/ 722.1/ 724.6/ 726.4/ 729.1
JDNM5 10.3/ 10.4/ 10.9/ 14.1/ 18.0/ 20.8/ 24.2
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 1230 Z DH12 /DC2412241239/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
: Valid Period: 12/30/2024 - 03/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:West Branch Lac Qui Parle River
DAWM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:Minnesota River
MVOM5 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3
GTEM5 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3
:Redwood River
MSHM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
RWDM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:Minnesota River
MTNM5 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.5
NULM5 1.0/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6
:Cottonwood River
SPFM5 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
NWUM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:Minnesota River
MNKM5 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.5/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.0
HENM5 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.7/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.1
JDNM5 2.3/ 2.1/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.1
.END
:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.
$$