369
FXUS63 KMKX 031553
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
953 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- West winds slowly ramp up this morning, then rapidly become
  gusty (25 to 35 MPH gusts) for this afternoon. Some stronger
  (~40 MPH) gusts will be possible this afternoon.

- A Special Weather Statement is in effect today for increased
  fire weather concerns, low humidity coupled with gusty winds.

- High temperatures trending above normal through Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures expected Wednesday through Thursday, with
  rain chances (~40-70%) returning to all of southern Wisconsin
  Thursday night into Friday.

- Becoming even cooler Friday into next weekend, with additional
  precip chances (~30-50%) arriving Saturday into Sunday. Some
  light snow can`t be ruled out.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 955 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

We are monitoring the latest Vertical Wind Profile (VWP) and
RAP/HRRR forecast sounding data to keep an eye on the winds for
this afternoon. The capping inversion responsible for slowing
down the uptick in winds this morning is set to break around
noon CST, which should then be followed by a rapid uptick in
gust intensity (25 to 35 MPH gusts). Now, we do have forecast
sounding and VWP data that suggests some noticeably stronger
(perhaps 40-45 MPH) gusts will also be possible due to the deep
mixing. As such, we cannot completely rule out adding our
nearshore marine zones of Lake Michigan to the ongoing Gale
Warning. Observations will be monitored closely going into this
afternoon.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 310 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Today through Tuesday night:

The front will push through early this morning with lingering
precip chances primarily across the eastern portions of the CWA.
Precip chances will push out just after dawn with this frontal
passage with winds turning west to northwest behind the front
over the course of the day. Winds will increase across much of
the CWA by the afternoon as unstable soundings suggest winds
should mix down from aloft with a 35-45kt LLJ at 850mb. Winds
will be greatest toward east central WI. In addition, temps
should warm up today to the upper 50s to near 60 with clearing
skies and the dry adiabatic mixing conditions present. This will
also set up a scenario to mix out dew points in the afternoon
leading to very low RH (20-35%). The combination of low RH and
breezy winds will bring us some elevated fire weather concerns
through this afternoon. This concern has prompted us to issue an
SPS for elevated fire weather concerns.

Into Tuesday conditions are largely expected to be quiet with
perhaps a bit more cloud cover but otherwise expected to warm up
again but mixing will be less significant with higher RH and
lower winds. Winds will turn back southwest as another surface
low pulls through the region Tuesday. This is expected to be a
dry system on our end with any precip chances remaining well to
the north due primarily to low level dry air. Now it should be
mentioned that there is a strip of moisture with the WAA regime
and LLJ that suggests shallow cloud depth showers developing,
especially across the eastern parts of the CWA, but the low
level dry air and lack of substantial cloud depth suggests this
may come off as virga at best given the very dry low levels.
This is something to monitor though as some shifts in models
trends may yield a few showers Tuesday afternoon.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 310 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Wednesday through Sunday:

Synopsis: Low pressure will shift east of the area on Wednesday,
allowing for northwest winds to bring cooler air into southern
Wisconsin. Building over the Northern Plains on Wednesday afternoon,
high pressure will move across the state Wednesday night, with
attendant radiational cooling allowing for a chilly start to the day
on Thursday. Conditions will turn more active Thursday night through
the conclusion of the long term period, with a pair of disturbances
forecast to cross southern Wisconsin. The first will move overhead
Thursday night into Friday, bringing widespread areas of rain to the
region. The second is progged to arrive during the Saturday into
Sunday time frame, when additional precipitation is forecast across
the area. A period of northwest winds is forecast between the two
systems late Friday afternoon into Saturday, which will allow for a
much colder Canadian air mass to settle into the western Great
Lakes. It`s thus possible that some precip could fall as snow in the
Saturday-Sunday system, though uncertainties regarding system track
and strength make it difficult to pinpoint preferred locations
and/or any potential for minor accumulations at this time. Will be
monitoring forecast trends through this week and providing
additional details as model solutions begin to converge.

Thursday Night through Friday: The first of two disturbances will
bring the next chances for precip to southern Wisconsin. Have
maintained NBM precip probabilities in the overnight update (~40-
70%, with values peaking Thursday night into Friday morning), but
will need to watch trends regarding precise system evolution over
subsequent updates. The bulk of precip potential in southern
Wisconsin will be driven by forcing from a shortwave arriving from
the Northern Plains, with global deterministic and ensemble
solutions in firm agreement with a track across the area. More
uncertain, however, is how much (if at all) the shortwave will
interact with a larger area of upper low pressure near the Hudson
Bay. Forecast solutions currently point toward the two features
remaining separate from one another, though any destructive
interactions could result in a slight downward trend in precip
probabilities from their current values. This will thus be a trend
to monitor through the first half of the week. Thermal profiles will
be mild, supporting all rain in any precipitation.

Saturday through Sunday: The second of two disturbances will bring
the next opportunity for widespread precip to the region. The NBM
currently paints broad 30-50% precipitation probabilities across
the majority of the area, which is more so a byproduct of
remaining uncertainties regarding the exact track & strength of
the upper disturbance & its affiliated area of surface low
pressure. Anticipate that probabilities will begin to focus over
narrower areas & potentially increase as model solutions begin to
converge through this week. With a much cooler air mass having
settled into southern Wisconsin, there is some signal for snow in
the Saturday- Sunday batch of precip, though the aforementioned
forecast uncertainties make it too difficult to speculate on
preferred snowfall locations or minor accumulation potential at
this time. Will be monitoring through this week.

Quigley

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 955 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Sunny and VFR today. Increasing clouds late tonight through
Tuesday morning, starting with high altitudes (15,000 ft or
higher) then mid altitudes into Tuesday (4,000 ft or higher).
Hence, VFR and dry conditions expected through the entire TAF
period.

West winds will become gusty this afternoon, with 20-30 knot
gusts in the forecast, and up to 40 knot gusts / peak winds
possible (based off VWP and forecast sounding data). Winds
gradually subside into this evening, decoupling and becoming
nearly calm late tonight. A light south breeze is then expected
Tuesday.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 310 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Strong low pressure will move across southern Hudson Bay, with
southwest to west gales expected to continue across Lake
Michigan through around 12z. A Gale Warning for the entire lake
remains in effect until 6 am CST Monday. This will coincide with
showers exiting the region as well as the front pushes out
today. With the frontal passage, however winds will turn more
west to northwest through the day today. With strong pressure
gradient remaining winds will remain breezy. While there may be
a break in the gales this morning, gales are now expected to
return late morning early afternoon through the afternoon for
the northern two-thirds of the lake and lingering longer further
north. As such we have extended the Gale Warning for the
northern two-thirds through 3z perhaps lingering a tad longer in
the far northern portions of the lake. Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect now through 6z tonight.

West to northwest winds subside tonight. High pressure will
pass just south of the lake on Tuesday, with light to modest
west winds turning south over time as a low pressure system
pushes across the lake Tuesday night. Expect a period of breezy
northwest winds behind this low Wednesday with gales possible.
Another period of Small Craft Conditions will be possible
Wednesday.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 until 9 PM
     Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until
     midnight Tuesday.

&&

$$

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