Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
479 FXUS63 KMKX 140837 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 337 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and thunderstorms at times Sunday afternoon into next week, with the better chances Tuesday into Wednesday. - Warmer temperatures inland but cooler temps near the lake through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 340 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Today through Sunday: With a boundary to the north and west and a low pressure system to the south we expect to remain largely dry today especially with the low to mid levels remaining fairly dry. In addition there with be no real forcing over the area to bring anything even if we could manage enough moisture to see a shower or storm. Thus the high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft look to be enough to keep us dry through tonight. While we cannot rule out a shower overnight they would largely be kept toward west central WI and isolated as the low to the west and associated boundary tries to sneak some showers into the northwest part of the CWA. Into Sunday the front will continue to nudge toward the CWA but there remains substantial uncertainty on exactly what will occur with this. Several models have some showers and storms pushing in or developing over at least the western half of the CWA while other models have almost nothing happening. This seems to be a result of differing solutions with respect to the front and how far east it pushes. Another reason is the differences in forcing aloft with a developing trough and upper low in the Missouri Valley region. Some models have this weaker and less developed and thus less PVA associated with the system while other models have a fully developed upper low with PVA stretching into the CWA. CAMs show some of this same uncertainty but have generally trended a bit wetter at least for western parts of the CWA with drier air aloft hold a bit more steady further east. Generally the timing for this points toward mid morning for showers and even some weak storms to develop across western parts of the CWA and drift east into the afternoon. Some showers may make it further east but showers will be dissipating as they push further east. Then CAMs start to point toward more activity into the late afternoon and early evening developing largely west of the CWA but pushing east toward the CWA. This activity, as CAMs suggest, is expected to be largely unorganized with low deep layer shear and thus stronger storms are not expected, especially since instability is much better further west and as storms migrate east into the evening instability would be expected to fall off fairly quickly. But some weakening storms could be expect in the CWA late Sunday afternoon into the early evening. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 340 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Monday through Friday: A weak shortwave trough and any showers or storms will likely be exiting srn WI Mon AM. A sfc trough will then track from SD into central MN on Mon then into Upper MI for Mon nt. Aloft, another weak shortwave trough and swly low level jet will accompany the sfc trough and remain mostly north of srn WI. Nevertheless, weak low to mid level warm, moist advection will be occurring over srn WI. 30-50 percent chances of showers and storms are forecast, greatest to the nw of Madison, where decaying convection could move into the region. The remains of the sfc trough/cold front will then approach or move into srn WI late Tue or Tue nt with additional chances for showers or storms, but greater storm coverage and organization would be expected for Wed. A shortwave trough will cross the central Rockies into the Great Plains on Tue with cyclogenesis to some degree expected from the central Great Plains into central or srn WI for Wed. A warm front with very warm and humid conditions will develop into srn WI ahead of these features with an eventual round or two of deep convection and possible strong storms. A weak sfc ridge would then be expected for late Thu into Fri. 80 degree temps and dewpoints of 65-70F are expected away from the lake for Mon-Wed, although lake locations will still be much warmer than the recent cool conditions. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 340 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas of MVFR CIGS over eastern WI continues to expand this morning to much of southern WI. These low CIGS will then dissipate or lift later this morning. VFR conditions for this afternoon and night. We will have to look toward Sunday with chances for some lower CIGS as the front progresses toward southern WI but there remains uncertainty on how far east this will make it and thus bring some uncertainty with respect to CIGS. Models do point toward at least a few showers and weak storms Sunday morning into the afternoon in southwest WI and likely a bit more isolated in southeast WI. This would cause temporary VSBY reductions at times. Otherwise winds will be light and primarily easterly today with light winds more from the southeast Sunday. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 340 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 High pressure along the Ontario and Quebec border will keep winds primarily easterly to northeasterly through the most of the weekend. Weak low pressure in southern Illinois will push east, moving into the Ohio River Valley and weakening into Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast at times Monday into next week, as the Ontario high pressure system weakens and low pressure approaches the region from the Central Plains. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee