Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
780 FXUS63 KMKX 022006 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wildfire smoke will create haze and air quality at unhealthy levels at times again through Sunday. - Humidity gradually returns next week, along with shower and thunderstorm chances. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 306 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Tonight through Monday: High pressure will remain in place over the Upper Great Lakes through Sunday and then start to depart on Monday. Dry weather, light winds, and mostly clear skies will continue. The low- level easterly flow over WI will usher the wildfire smoke into southern WI. The HRRR model suggests higher concentrations of near-surface smoke over southern WI beginning late this afternoon, with an uptick in the concentration over far southeast WI from around midnight through midday Sunday. The DNR extended the Air Quality Advisory until noon tomorrow and it will likely need to be extended further in time. When the higher concentrations of smoke are present, there should be a visibility restriction of 3 to 5 miles. Patchy fog is also expected once again. The Wisconsin River Vally will be most susceptible to dense fog, and other marshy areas and low spots may have patchy dense fog. The high temperatures will creep up a degree or two each day through Monday, reaching low 80s. The lows will have a similar trend but remain in the 50s through Sunday night. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 306 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Tuesday through Saturday: As the high shifts east, southerly flow will usher moisture and a slightly warmer temperatures up from the Gulf. Weak shortwave troughs crossing the Northern Plains should interact with this increasing instability over southern WI to bring a small chance of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. The latest models are suggesting that the high pressure remains entrenched over the Upper Great Lakes (and also the southern Plains) a little longer, thus the better chance of those diurnal showers/storms may be confined to IL rather than srn WI. An upper trough will try to make its way across the Northern Plains, but will run into strong ridging from the southern Plains to the northeast. WI will be on the western/northern periphery of this ridge. Our next thunderstorm chances will be dependent upon any upstream convection that can make it all the way into southern WI or whenever that ridge can break down enough to allow the upper trough to get here. Models keep delaying its arrival, and thus delays our storm chances. The GFS favors storms over the weekend, while the ECMWF delays the storm chances until early next week. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 306 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 High pressure will bring continued quiet weather through Sunday. The latest HRRR suggests that there will be an increasing chance for reduced visibilities due to near surface smoke beginning late this afternoon and continuing through Sunday morning, especially near Lake Michigan. Another round of localized fog is expected tonight, especially in river valleys and low lying areas. Otherwise, mainly high clouds and light winds are expected through tomorrow. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 306 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 High pressure centered over Wisconsin will slide across Lake Michigan this weekend and become centered over Michigan on Sunday after weakening. Light and variable winds are expected under the high. Look for winds to become east to southeast early next week as low pressure slowly approaches from the Northern Plains. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee