399
FXUS63 KMKX 041528
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1028 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonable, summer like temps in the mid to upper 80s again
  today. Record high temps will once again be possible for
  Madison and Milwaukee areas.

- Dry conditions through the Sunday, but scattered shower and
  thunderstorm chances (40-75%) return on Monday with a cold
  front passage.

- Gusty winds along the Lake Michigan today into Sunday will
  bring small craft conditions.

- Near normal temps return for midweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1029 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Temperatures are on a steady upwards trend this afternoon, with
southwesterly winds increasing and dewpoint temperatures
expected to drop as mixing increases midday into this afternoon.
This will allow for heat index values to remain near or below
the temperatures. Record high temperatures may be reached today
for Milwaukee and Madison. With heat and low humidity, fire
weather concerns remain enhanced as per previous discussion.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 339 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Today through Sunday:

Today will be fairly similar to Friday with another day of
unseasonable warmth and dry conditions. Once again looking at
highs near record levels in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon
and approaching 90F in a few locations across the lower
Wisconsin River Valley and down to the WI/IL border. Southerly
winds are expected to be a bit breezier with gusts of 15-25 mph
this afternoon. Given the increased winds and warmer temps along
with deeper mixing, could see dry conditions/low humidity
contributing to increased fire weather concerns across
southwestern portions of WI, but the fuel values seem to remain
high enough to limit these impacts. Mild temps will continue
overnight as WAA persists with lows only dipping into the low to
mid 60s.

Heading into Sunday will see the pressure gradient increase as
a deepening low lifts across the Dakotas into Ontario, thus
bringing stronger southerly winds to southern WI with gusts of
20-30 mph possible. Will also see the ridge shift further east
with the incoming mid-level trough and result in slightly
cooler, but still above normal temps (upper 70s to lower 80s)
for Sunday.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 339 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Sunday night through Friday:

High pressure over the Atlantic will linger but weaken slightly
while the surface low swings through central Ontario. This will
bring an area weakening low pressure with the front. The front
will slowly trail through southern WI from Monday through much
of Tuesday. The forcing will be patchy Monday with limited upper
level shortwave activity but enough low to midlevel WAA and
even some influence from the LLJ with enough low to mid level
moisture to bring some showers and even a few rumbles of
thunder. Into Tuesday the primary forcing will become a more
significant upper level shortwave swinging through with some WAA
but also more low to mid level moisture but less forcing from
the frontal feature. Showers are expected with little to no
thunder risk. By Tuesday night this will push out with High
pressure building in from the north. This will likely keep
things dry through Thursday. Another wave will swing through
Friday bringing another chance for showers/storms with
increasing uncertainty beyond that with an upper level closed
low may keep rain chances in the region early into the weekend.
However things should start to clear out by Sunday/Monday.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1029 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions throughout today and tonight, with southwesterly
winds becoming gusty this afternoon around 15 to 20 kt. Gusts
will diminish overnight although southwesterly winds continue,
with gusts returning on Sunday and increasing to 25 to 30 kt.
Diurnal cumulus may develop Sunday afternoon around 5000 ft.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 339 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Lake Michigan remains sandwiched between a broad high pressure
lingering along the Mid-Atlantic coast and a developing low
pressure across the Central Plains through the weekend.
Southerly winds prevail across the lake and will increase this
afternoon. Expect to see even stronger winds into Sunday as the
low pressure deepens as it lifts across the Northern Plains
into Ontario. Widespread southerly gusts of 20-30 knots are
progged across the nearshore and open waters during this time,
but still could be a brief potential for gale force gusts to
develop across the northern third of the Lake Michigan later
Sunday evening. Given the brevity of the window for gales along
with slightly lower wind speeds, will continue to hold off on
any gale headlines at this time, but will continue to monitor.
Then the cold front extending off of the low pressure to the
north is progged to trek across the lake Monday bringing
lighter, west to northwesterly wind shift followed by high
pressure settling in for the middle of the week.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...4 PM Saturday to 7 AM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645...1 PM Sunday to 1 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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