Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
131 FXUS63 KMKX 200253 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 853 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy drizzle & fog possible overnight. - Slight chances (~10-20%) for light rain & drizzle on Thursday. - Temperatures hovering near or just above normal this weekend into early next week. Quiet weather through this period. - More active pattern with a cooling trend towards the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 855 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Evening surface observations show high pressure pushing east of the region, with the next area of low pressure positioned near the South Dakota-Minnesota border. Evolution of the surface pattern has resulted in a south to southeast wind shift away from Lake Michigan, allowing modestly higher moisture to advect into the region. Trapped beneath a layer of warmer air between the 800 & 700 mb levels, low stratus clouds have thus overspread southern Wisconsin. Patchy fog and drizzle has been reported along and south of I-94/US-18, where the near-surface moisture is slightly deeper. Anticipate that modest moisture advection will continue through the overnight period as low pressure pulls closer & warm advection increases in the 1000-850 mb layer. Have thus added mentions of patchy fog and drizzle through daybreak, with potential gradually creeping northward as the night progresses. Don`t currently anticipate widespread dense fog, though trends will be monitored. Quigley && .SHORT TERM... Issued 305 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Tonight through Thursday night: As high pressure exits the Great Lakes region eastward Tonight through Thursday, mostly dry and quiet weather is expected. Winds remain light and variable into Tonight, followed by a light southwest breeze developing Thursday. An arc of low stratus cloud is gradually approaching from the southwest, and should overspread the region this evening into Tonight, limiting potential for fog and holding overnight low temperatures to the mid to upper 30s across the region. A sprinkle (trace) of drizzle this evening from said clouds cannot be completely ruled out, particularly for south-central and southwestern WI. Low clouds linger into Thursday, with the aforementioned southwest breeze boosting high temps to the low 50s (around 6 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms). 10-20% precip chances are included for the majority of the region on account of the low stratus producing some drizzle, models allow for only a few hundredths of an inch liquid precip (if anything at all) on Thursday. Forecast soundings indicate the moisture / saturation extends through only the lowest 5000 ft AGL of the atmosphere (to the 850mb level at best), gradually drying out Thursday night. Sheppard && .LONG TERM... Issued 305 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Friday through Wednesday: Mild temperatures (at or slightly above seasonal norms) and quiet / dry weather are expected late this week through early next week. The subtropical and polar jet streams remain split and mostly zonal through this period, preventing any major ascent / active weather. Weak low pressure over the TX/OK panhandles tracks northeastward towards Illinois late Friday into Saturday, with a weak blocking high pressure near MN stopping it`s advance and allowing only ~10% rain chances to arrive towards the WI/IL border on it`s closest approach. The pattern looks to become more active towards the middle of next week, with the ECMWF and GFS both resolving healthy troughing in the jet, tracking east into the Great Plains and eventually lifting our way. Ensemble temperature plots also indicate a cooling trend to begin mid next week. Sheppard && .AVIATION... Issued 855 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Low clouds are overspreading southern Wisconsin this evening, resulting in reduced flight categories at most terminals away from the Lake Michigan shoreline. Clouds will persist through the overnight period, with CIGs lowering further in the presence of deepening low level moisture. Anticipate that prevailing IFR will become established at most inland terminals through the predawn hours. Confidence in prevailing IFR is lower near the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline, where CIGs could ultimately settle in lower MVFR categories. Have accounted for these expectations in the 00Z & 03Z updates. Brief periods of BR and -DZ are possible, with mentions being inserted as trends dictate through the overnight. Reduced flight categories will continue into Thursday morning, with gradual improvements expected by Thursday afternoon. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 305 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 High pressure of 30.3 inches continues eastward from the Great Lakes region tonight into Thursday, allowing light south winds to develop tonight, turning southwest and becoming breezy over northern portions of the lake Thursday afternoon and evening (20 to 25 KT gusts). Low pressure around 29.5 inches tracking east across Canada drags a weak cold front across the lake Thursday evening, with winds veering west to northwest and decelerating behind it. Light north to northwest winds continue into Friday, becoming light and variable into early Saturday as weak high pressure passes over the lake. Sheppard && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee