296
FXUS63 KMKX 272019
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
319 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder expected
  tonight. Activity will remain isolated until Midnight, as a
  cold front sags southward into the region. 40-60% rain chances
  late tonight into Thursday morning, declining after 10 AM CDT.

- Fuel for an isolated shower / weak storm will remain present
  into Thursday afternoon (10-20% chance).

- A period of dry and fair weather is forecast for Friday into
  early next week. Temperatures will be several degrees below
  normal late this week into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 310 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Tonight through Thursday night:

Though some isolated shower activity (currently evident over
eastern IA / southern MN) associated with low to mid level WAA
may push eastward into the region this evening, shower and weak
storm coverage is expected to remain isolated until after
midnight tonight, when the cold front sags southward into the
region. Scattered to numerous pop up showers and weak
(disorganized) thunderstorms will then continue through Thursday
morning, likely becoming isolated after 10 AM CDT. Instability
for a lingering isolated storm will remain present into the
afternoon, though models resolve little to no activity. Lapse
rates decline and instability vanishes into the evening, leaving
dry weather from then onwards.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 310 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Friday through Tuesday:

Dry weather expected to dominate this forecast period as high
pressure remains over the Upper Great Lakes region. A light
northeast breeze does continue into Friday, but remains slow enough
over Lake Michigan to allow wave heights to decline throughout
Friday morning, likely allowing any lingering Small Craft / Beach
Hazards to subside by late morning. Friday is expected to be the
coolest day, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees flat.
Afterwards, temperatures slowly moderate back up to the mid 70s by
early next week. With late-August climatological norms in the upper
70s for Madison and Milwaukee, these temperatures would still be
considered `a few degrees below normal`.

Light and variable winds underneath the high pressure system coupled
with overnight periods of clear or mostly clear skies will likely
allow several rounds of radiation fog to develop in low lying marshy
areas and river valleys late each night / early each morning,
burning off soon after sunrise. This would be most prevalent at
inland areas (away from Lake Michigan) given how warm the water
temperatures currently are. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s
expected Friday night (50s near the Lake Michigan shoreline due to
continued weak onshore flow), gradually moderating up to the 50s
into early next week.

Kept precip chances under 10% through the weekend and early next
week, but towards the middle of next week, high pressure retreats
just far enough east and model certainty in the jet pattern drops
low enough to merit some 15-30% precip chances mid week. Nothing
definitive yet. Similarly, there is solid spread in the temperature
forecast beyond mid next week, but below average temperatures
continue to be the favored solution, along with relatively quiet
weather.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 310 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Isolated shower activity currently over Iowa / southern
Minnesota will gradually push eastward, and may reach
southwestern Wisconsin (areas southwest of Madison) later today.
Dry weather and VFR conditions elsewhere through this afternoon
and much of the evening. Some scattered diurnal cumulus around
6,000 ft linger, and may erode shortly after sunset.

The aforementioned isolated shower activity pushes over the rest
of our region into this evening, but looks to remain isolated
(or even missing entirely) until a cold front sags southward
into our region late tonight, increasing shower and weak
thunderstorm activity to scattered coverage at some point after
midnight tonight, with some accompanying MVFR / Fuel Alt MVFR
ceilings possible. Scattered shower / weak storm activity winds
down around 10 AM Thursday, allowing ceilings to gradually lift.
That said, the instability for an isolated shower / weak storm
will linger through Thursday afternoon before eroding. Northeast
winds expected behind the front Thursday.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 310 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

A trough of low pressure and associated cold front will drop
southward through the area tonight into early Thursday. Modest
southwesterly winds will continue ahead of the cold front, veering
due north to northeast behind it. The passing front will likely
produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, with some
potential for waterspouts tonight over the northern half of the
lake, then over the southern half of the lake Thursday (along and
behind the frontal boundary). North winds behind the front become
breezy (up to 25 kt at times) Thursday afternoon and evening, then
gradually subside into Friday as high pressure builds into the
region from the north. An extended period of light and variable
winds with quiet weather will then occur this weekend through
early next week as high pressure lingers over the upper Great
Lakes.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-
     WIZ072...noon Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...noon
     Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

&&

$$

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