789
FXUS63 KMKX 151540
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1040 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light showers will diminish through mid morning,
  with clouds lingering through much of the day.

- Light rain or sprinkles are possible Thursday night into Fri
  morning. Higher chances (60 to 80 %) of showers and a few
  thunderstorms are forecast along a cold front Friday night
  through Saturday. The forecast progression of this front is
  trending slower.

- One more warm and breezy day is expected Friday with highs in
  the 70s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1040 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The shortwave continues to pull east out of the Great Lakes
Region and rain is ending along the lingering mid level
boundary. As we loose forcing the rain chances will further
diminish. Cloud cover is expected to linger across the state
through the afternoon. There have been a few breaks in the
clouds forming already this morning so a couple areas may get a
peak at the sun. There is some uncertainty in how quickly the
cloud cover will decrease. With the frontal boundary to our
south and high pressure to our northeast, its a debate of if the
subsidence will win out. If clouds clear out quickly, there is
a potential for fog and low stratus tonight.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 354 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Today through Thursday:

The majority of this ongoing shower activity will depart from
west to east through 8 AM as the upper level shortwave exits
WI. However, expect a narrow band of light rain to linger along
the surface front through midday. We can see this forming
already along the front that is currently positioned from
Rochester to La Crosse. This front is expected to remain
stationary through mid day and should stay just south of a
Wisconsin Dells to Madison to Janesville line. It should
actually drift southwestward through the day and remain outside
of south central WI tonight.

The steady northeasterly winds will diminish by late morning, as
the pressure gradient eases especially in east central WI with
high pressure building in. Low clouds will persist over
southwest WI through at least the middle of the day, but we
should see them diminish near the lakeshore as low level dry air
returns.

Tonight, temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 40s across
central WI. If we clear out, then fog is likely. Right now, the
NAMNest is the only model showing a potential for fog near Fond
du Lac, Sheboygan, and West Bend.

The low level jet will kick up over MN and western WI tonight,
with the nose (and warm air advection) pushing into north
central WI Thu morning. A weak shortwave trough is expected to
ride the upper ridge across northern WI during the day Thu.
Therefore, northern WI has the higher chance (50-70%) for light
rain showers. Here in southern WI, a few models, particularly
the ECWMF, favor a swath of light rain to roll across the area
with weak and elevated warm air advection. Most models keep us
dry, and the HREF grand ensemble suggests less than a 10 percent
chance for precip between Wisconsin Dells and Sheboygan, with
zero chance to the south.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 354 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Thursday night through Tuesday:

The 500 mb ridge axis should gradually shift east of the area
Thursday night into Friday. High pressure at the surface should
also slide further east of the region during this time, with
increasing south winds developing within a tightening pressure
gradient. The steady warm air advection at 850 mb may bring enough
upward vertical motion and moisture for a few showers or
sprinkles Thursday night, generally north of I-94. Mainly dry
conditions are expected Friday. Temperatures should continue to
warm well above seasonal normal values for Friday, with highs
into at least the middle 70s over most of the area.

The main cold front should push east into the area later Friday
night or early Saturday morning, and exit southern WI from west
to east by early Saturday afternoon or early Saturday evening.
There remains differences in the timing of the frontal passage,
with the ECMWF/EPS on the slower side and the GEFS/GFS on the
quicker side. However, the 00z GFS came in with a slower
solution, closer to the EC now.

A band of showers and some thunderstorms should move through the
area sometime during this period, from strong low level
frontogenesis response and the focused warm air advection moving
over the region. There is some right entrance region divergence
aloft as well. The later the progression of the front, the better
the chances for some thundestorms to occur with peak heating
Saturday. The deep layer bulk shear is strong and may not take
much instability to get some stronger storms with gusty winds to
occur. Still uncertainty with this potential, so keep up with the
forecast.

The precipitation should end fairly quickly behind the front, as
strong cold air advection on northwest winds pushes into the area
by Saturday night.

A rather deep 500 mb trough should then shift through the region
Saturday night into Sunday. Some lingering moisture may result in
scattered showers at times during this period. Temperatures
should cool down to near or a little above seasonal normal values
Saturday night into Sunday. Trends beyond this point are very
uncertain, so will leave NBM PoPs and temperatures unchanged in
the forecast.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1040 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The last of the rain showers are exiting southern Wisconsin this
morning with the entire area expected to be free of rain by
noon. Predominately IFR to MVFR ceilings are in place across
Wisconsin, Central and Southern Minnesota. Far northern,
northeastern and east central Wisconsin are the few areas with
VFR ceilings around 3-4 kft. Those areas that already have
improved VFR conditions are likely to see those conditions
continue or further improve as the day goes on. For the rest of
the state ceilings range from 600 feet to 2kft. Ceilings should
gradually improve throughout the day, but there is uncertainty
in the exact timing that clouds should lift and then dissipate.
With lower ceilings upstream in Minnesota south central and
southwestern Wisconsin should expected IFR to MVFR through at
least this afternoon.

Heading into tonight ceilings are expected to be around 2 to 5
kft. Any areas that clear out (best chances are eastern areas)
could see some fog develop which will keep a majority of the
area in MVFR to VFR conditons from either the ceilings or the
fog. Clouds should continue to diminish overnight leading to
patchy skies Thursday. Any fog or low stratus will burn
off/improve shortly after sunrise. Overall VFR conditions should
return across southern Wisconsin by mid morning Thursday.

Light east to northeast winds will continue through tonight and
become southeasterly Thursday morning. Southeast winds will
become a bit breezy in the afternoon hours Thursday with gusts
around 15 to 20 knots (17-23 MPH).

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 354 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

High pressure of will cross Lake Superior today and tonight
while weakening. The breezy east-northeast winds will diminish
by late morning and become southeast by Thursday morning. Look
for the southeast winds to become breezy again Thursday night
into Friday morning as low pressure develops in North Dakota
and lifts into Manitoba.

The low will further deepen as it reaches the northern
Manitoba-Ontario border Friday afternoon. Gusty southerly winds
are expected over Lake Michigan as an associated surface trough
cold front approaches from Minnesota. Southerly gale force gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon and evening over the north
half of the lake.

A surface low is expected to deepen as it crosses Lake Michigan
Saturday night. Gusty northerly winds are expected Sunday with
gales possible again, this time over southern Lake Michigan.

Cronce/Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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