051
FXUS63 KMKX 151522 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1022 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers lingering this morning into early this
  afternoon, mainly west of Madison. This may linger into early
  this evening, with a few storms possible.

- More showers and a few storms may develop and affect a simliar
  area later tonight into Monday morning.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms at times Monday through
  the middle of the week, with the better chances for stronger
  storms Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1022 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Scattered showers continue to linger for areas mainly west of
Madison this morning, helped along by a nearly stationary 500 mb
vorticity maximum/shortwave trough, weak 850 mb warm air
advection and deep moisture. This activity should slowly rotate
but remain nearly stationary into early this afternoon in this
area. It could linger through the afternoon into the early
evening, and may see a few storms develop with peak heating and
weak instability developing.

Otherwise, middle to high clouds may linger into the afternoon
for western and northern parts of the area, with breaks to the
southeast of there at times. Onshore winds should keep highs in
the 60s near Lake Michigan, with upper 70s to around 80 degrees
well inland. Clouds in the west and north may hold down forecast
highs if they persist this afternoon.

There are some indications from the more recent runs of some
CAMs that another 500 mb shortwave trough approaching the area
later tonight into Monday morning may help bring more showers
and a few storms to western portions of the area. Will continue
to monitor trends in this period and see if any adjustments to
the forecast are needed.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 305 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Today through Monday night:

Shower and storm activity remain primarily west of the CWA early
this morning with a few isolated showers sneaking into the CWA.
This is primarily due to some weak frontal convergence, some
modest 850mb WAA and some shortwave activity aloft all in the
presence of decent low to mid level moisture. However the
forcing remains primarily west of Madison as does the associated
low to mid level moisture. The shortwave will nudge east through
the day allowing for at least some shower development later this
morning into the early afternoon. There definitely remain some
uncertainties with how the shortwave will affect the area as it
pushes further east but CAMs largely keep areas east of Madison
dry through the day. This is likely due in part to the better
moisture further west as well as the relatively weak forcing
overall. I cannot rule out showers further east due to the
progression of the shortwave but with limited support of precip
east of Madison I kept chances from 15-40% west of Madison this
morning into the early afternoon with chances gradually backing
off later into the after and evening.

Uncertainty grows overnight with additional shower/weak storms
chances late overnight into Monday morning but again focused
further west and north as of right now. Model models keep the
area largely dry likely due to drying low to mid level air. Into
Monday afternoon and evening WAA and a more prominent shortwave
aloft with much more moisture will swing through northern WI.
Most of the associated activity with this system will likely
stay further north. While we cannot rule out more prominent
activity further south the drier air continues to be one of the
prevailing factors keeping southern WI on the drier side of
things for the most part. Monday looks likely to reach the low
to mid 80s across most of southern WI with slightly cooler
conditions near the lake. Expect an afternoon lake breeze
however given the lighter wind conditons.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 305 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Tuesday through Saturday:

Southwesterly flow at the surface continues the warming trend into
Tuesday, with a SW to NE oriented cold front approaching from
northern WI (arrival timeline is highly uncertain, best guess is
in the mid to late afternoon). Both the ECMWF and the GFS place
70 degree dewpoints ahead of the front, with the NAM and GFS
briefly exceeding that (low 70s) for the early to mid afternoon.
Both the cold front and a passing 500mb trough and vorticity
maximum may provide lift to support showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday, with the highest chances in the afternoon (both due to
diurnal destabilization and the best- guess arrival of the front
and upper-air features). That said, forecast soundings do place a
modest capping inversion overhead Tuesday, and showers / storms
may fail to initiate overhead (as seen on the 12z ECMWF QPF
output, which leaves us dry).

Predictability plummets even lower Wednesday and onwards. Some
GEFS and EPS members that fail to convect on Tuesday leverage the
lingering steamy airmass and upper air support / wind shear to
fuel thunderstorms on Wednesday, while other members that support
Tuesday convection treat Wednesday as more of a lull in the
activity.

Ensembles continue to show some warm air advection on south to
southwest winds later in the week, bringing very warm and humid
conditions into the area by Saturday.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1022 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Scattered showers continue to linger for areas mainly west of
Madison this morning. This activity should slowly rotate but
remain nearly stationary into early this afternoon in this area.
Some showers may affect the Madison and perhaps Janesville
terminals during this time. This activity could linger through
the afternoon into the early evening, and may see a few storms
develop with peak heating and weak instability developing.

Otherwise, middle to high clouds may linger into the afternoon
for western and northern parts of the area, with breaks to the
southeast of there at times. May see some scattered diurnal
cumulus clouds develop inland from Lake Michigan this afternoon.
Light east to southeast winds are expected this afternoon
inland, with northeast to east winds for terminals near Lake
Michigan.

There are some indications that more showers and a few storms
may occur later tonight into Monday morning in western portions
of the area, similar to the current activity. For now, will
leave mention out of TAFs, but will monitor trends. Scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds may develop by Monday afternoon. Light
southeast winds tonight will become south on Monday. A southeast
lake breeze is expected Monday for terminals near Lake
Michigan.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1022 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

High pressure around 30.2 inches over eastern Ontario will keep
generally northeast winds today, with north to northeast winds
later this afternoon into this evening. Winds should then become
south to southeast on Monday, as the high moves through the New
England region. South winds should gradually increase Tuesday
into early Wednesday, as low pressure around 29.7 inches
approaches the region from the Central Plains. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms are forecast at times Monday through
the middle of the week as well.

Kuroski/Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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