Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
054 FXUS63 KMKX 281546 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1046 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal through Wednesday, cooling down late week into the weekend - Rain chances and a few storms return Tuesday night into Thursday && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1046 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Tonight through Tuesday: Surface high pressure centered overhead this morning will gradually slide eastward tonight through Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper ridge centered just to the west will move through later today into tonight ahead of an approaching trough. Southerly winds will develop tonight into Tuesday on the back side of the surface high, keeping the milder temperatures around at least another day. With mostly clear skies expected, could see some patchy fog later tonight into early Tuesday. Mostly clear skies early tomorrow should give way to increasing mid and high level clouds from the west by afternoon. There should be at least filtered sunshine into the afternoon for highs into the 70s again. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 1046 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Tuesday night through Monday: Latest models seem to be coming into better agreement with the mid-week system. There is expected to be a prolonged period of higher moisture across the region, which will move in Tuesday night and exit during the day Thursday. Precipitable water values are likely to peak in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range during this period, which will be near or above max for this time of the year per GRB and DVN sounding climatology. While overall instability and wind profiles are not supportive of a severe weather threat mid-week, the high precipitable water values and marginal instability could result in locally heavy rainfall. The main area of uncertainty mid-week is with the timing and placement of the stronger forcing, with generally persistent warm air and moisture advection expected. A few model solutions place the higher precip totals mainly to the northwest of the forecast area Tue night through Wed night, shifting the higher totals to the south by Thursday afternoon as the trough and cold front drop through the area. The ECMWF solution remains the main holdout on bringing precip into southern Wisconsin earlier and then keeping the better forcing across the forecast area for a longer period of time. Overall, rain chances will be high for mid-week given the high amount of moisture, but timing and totals remain uncertain at this time. Temperatures should drop back to around normal for Wed/Thu given the cloud and rain chances. High pressure will build in Friday behind the mid-week system, bringing dry weather and temperatures just a touch below normal for Friday and Saturday. A shortwave and cold front are then expected to slide through Saturday night, with strong high pressure building into the region Sunday and Monday. It`s currently looking dry with the frontal passage this weekend, with even cooler conditions likely early next week. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 1046 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Mostly clear skies and light and variable winds are expected today. Southerly winds will then develop tonight into Tuesday on the back side of departing high pressure. With limited cloud cover continuing, could see some patchy fog later tonight into early Tuesday. Mostly clear skies early tomorrow should give way to increasing mid and high level clouds from the west by afternoon. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 1046 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 High pressure of 30.1 inches will remain overhead today, keeping the weather dry and winds light out of the north. Breezy southerly winds are expected to build Tuesday afternoon and continue into Thursday, as high pressure departs to the east ahead of an approaching trough. A few wind gusts to 30 knots are possible Wednesday along with building waves, particularly across central and northern portions of the lake. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee