830
FXUS63 KMKX 012003
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
303 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers gradually diminish this evening, but drier and colder
  temps around or below freezing temps tonight.

- Rain chances (around 20-50%) return Sunday night with gusty
  winds. Best rain potential will be to the north of I-94 and
  US-18.

- High temperatures trending above normal through the first half
  of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Tonight through Sunday:

The upper-level trough continues to slowly move southward into
the Mid-Mississippi River Valley this evening while the surface
meso-low over Lake Michigan moves into the far southeastern part
of the Lake. As a result will see lingering drizzle and light
rain linger, but gradually diminish as forcing supporting this
activity shifts further south-southeast of the area through the
evening. Otherwise, expecting drier conditions to gradually
filter in overnight as surface high pressure works its way
across the region into Sunday morning. Also expecting clouds to
gradually clear overnight as well and will allow for temps to
dip into the 20s for inland areas west of the Kettle Moraine,
while areas along and east look to stay a bit warmer in the low
to mid 30s.

Sunday is looking dry and seasonal with highs climbing back
into 50s. expect winds to gradually pick up through the
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens across WI as low
pressure tracks across Manitoba into Ontario through Sunday
evening.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Sunday Night through Saturday:

As the surface low deepens across Ontario overnight Sunday,
expect a cold front to drift across the Upper Midwest into
Monday. Paired with the southern edge of mid-level vorticity and
low-level WAA will be enough for another round of showers
mainly overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. However, the
better forcing along with a swath on increased PWATs exceeding
0.75 inches are progged for northern half of the state. Thus our
east central counties, north of I-94 will have the better
precipitation potential (>40%), while drier air is expected to
limit chances (<30%) for southern half of the CWA.

Conditions remain quiet later Monday into Tuesday as zonal flow
sets up aloft and high pressure works across the region. Expect
temps to warm back up to above normal through the the week.
Looking at daily highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. By midweek,
expect a more activity pattern to set up across the Midwest.
Long range models prog a series of upper-level shortwave troughs
to traverse the Central CONUS about every other day bring bouts
of PoPs and fluctuating temps/winds. However, as the waves work
their way across the area, the are trending on the warmer side,
which would limit any wintry type precip at this time.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Band of lower ceilings continue to work its way southward
across the area late this afternoon and into the evening.
Shower activity is following a similar trend, thus expect MVFR
conditions for another couple of hours, mainly for southeastern
WI terminals. Otherwise, expect clouds to gradually scatter out
as high pressure works its way across the region overnight into
early Sunday morning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
overnight into Monday. However, expecting westerly winds to
increase and turn more southwesterly into Monday afternoon as
low pressure digs across Manitoba into Ontario.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Weak meso-low pressure in far southeastern Lake Michigan will
linger through the evening before pushing into MI tonight. This
feature will be a focus for lingering waterspout potential
across the southern third of Lake Michigan until sunset.
Otherwise, high pressure is progged to work across the region
overnight into Sunday bringing lighter westerly winds. However,
a deepening low pressure is expected to track across Manitoba
and Ontario through the day Sunday this will bring increased
southwesterly winds across Lake Michigan Sunday afternoon. Thus
small craft advisory is expected across the nearshore Sunday
afternoon into Monday. As the low pressure tracks into the
Hudson Bay region winds, especially across the northern half of
Lake Michigan will continue to increase and expected to reach
gale force later Sunday afternoon and continue overnight into
early Monday morning. Thus, have upgrade to a Gale warning for
the northern half of the lake. Still cannot rule out a few gales
south of the current warning along the southwestern MI
lakeshore, but confidence is not high enough to expand that far
south at this time. Otherwise, gusty winds linger into Monday
morning before easing later Monday into Tuesday as another high
pressure is progged to move across the region.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868...3 PM Sunday to 6 AM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...1 PM Sunday to 6 PM
     Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...1 PM Sunday to 10 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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