Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
586 FXUS63 KMKX 170329 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 929 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Band of rain/snow mix, changing to snow in many locations, Monday night and early Tuesday. Light accumulations possible. - Additional precipitation chances for the latter portion of the workweek. Rain is favored at this time. - Temperatures generally around average through the week. && .UPDATE... Issued 929 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Forecast remains on track tonight through Monday morning, with very low dewpoint temperatures in the mid teens and building high pressure allowing temperatures to fall into the low 20s by sunrise. Expecting dry conditions and clear skies, with slowly increasing cloud cover from southwest to northeast Monday. MH && .SHORT TERM... Issued 217 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Tonight through Tuesday: Cool and dry conditions will continue into tonight. Breezy northwest winds will settle by late afternoon/early evening, and with clear skies and a very dry airmass, look for temperatures to quickly fall through the 30s this evening. Overnight lows will bottom out in the low to mid 20s in most locations. The daytime hours on Monday will be dry, with clouds increasing from the southwest through the day, ahead of an upper level low over the Central Plains. Highs will be in the mid 40s, with light and variable winds early becoming southeasterly by late afternoon and evening. A relatively narrow area of precipitation is expected to overspread the area from the west and southwest late Monday evening, continuing into Tuesday. This precipitation is supported by an arc of low and mid level warm advection, as well as a fairly robust area of frontogenesis, especially between about 850 MB and 600 MB. Cross sections indicate neutral instability within a large layer as well. All of these factors will support narrow bands of more intense precipitation within the main area of precipitation, particularly during the overnight hours Monday night/early Tuesday morning. The exact location of these bands remains in question, and this is the greatest source of forecast uncertainty at this time. As far as precipitation type, a light rain/snow mix is possible as precipitation begins, but once forcing/rates increase, look for rain to mostly change to very wet snow, with forecast soundings suggesting a nearly isothermal layer just below freezing from about 10kft down to the surface. Snow will be most favored between midnight and 3-4 AM, with warm advection eventually eating away at the rain/snow line from south to north through the early morning hours Tuesday. Pockets of rain/snow mix will persist after sunrise Tuesday, before any lingering precipitation changes to all rain by Tuesday afternoon, before ending. Given warm ground temperatures and air temperatures right around freezing, road/travel impacts will largely be tied to areas of heavier snowfall rates. Within these bands of heavier rates, slushy accumulations on area roadways will be possible. Otherwise, any accumulations will be mostly limited to grassy and elevated surfaces, and should be expected to quickly melt on Tuesday. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 217 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Tuesday Night through Sunday: Tuesday night and Wednesday look to be quiet across the region. Heading into Thursday, another shortwave will dive into the Great Lakes, while additional energy lifts northeastward from the Southwestern US. This will bring additional chances (30-50%) for rain to the region. Temperatures continue to be favored to be around average (highs in the mid to upper 40s, lows in the 30s) into the weekend. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 929 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 VFR conditions and light winds will continue throughout the remainder of the tonight and through Monday, with periods of MVFR cloud decks underneath developing rain/snow mix late Monday afternoon through Monday evening. Rain/snow mix will transition to snow overnight, lowering visibilities. Meanwhile, easterly winds will increase to 10-15 kt and ceilings will lower to MVFR. MH && .MARINE... Issued 217 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Winds will ease tonight as high pressure slides eastward across the Upper Midwest into tomorrow morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM for the nearshore waters. An area of low pressure around 29.8 inches pushes in from the Plains across IL for Tuesday and will bring east- southeast winds, with the strongest winds over the southern half of the Lake. An additional Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for this timeframe. Lighter winds are then expected into midweek as another high treks across the Upper Great Lakes region. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee