690
FXUS63 KMKX 272127
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
327 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow is expected Saturday and Saturday night. A
  Winter Storm Watch is in effect for all of southern Wisconsin.
  Widespread snow totals in excess of 6 inches are possible.

- Below normal temperatures will likely persist through next
  week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 327 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Tonight through Sunday:

Snow showers and flurries embedded within persistent cyclonic
flow will continue through at least late this afternoon. The
more moderate snow showers will likely wind down first, with
flurries possibly lingering into the evening. Quiet weather is
then expected overnight and Friday as high pressure moves
through the region. Below normal temps will continue Friday.

Not a lot of change over the last 24 hours with the anticipated
winter storm this weekend. Surface low pressure will lift from
the Southern Plains Friday night to near the southern tip of
Lake Michigan Saturday night. Deterministic models are in pretty
good agreement with the track of this low, with some variations
still noted among the ensemble members. A prolonged period of
lift is expected with the ideal track of the surface low, the
700 mb low moving right overhead, the 500 mb trough becoming
negatively tilted as it moves through, and a fair amount of
upper level divergence. Confidence is high in widespread snow
accumulations.

One remaining concern with this storm is lingering significant
variations in models with total precipitation. The ECMWF
deterministic and ensemble mean along with the NAM remain the
highest with liquid equivalent precip totals, a solid .20" to
.30" higher then the GFS and Canadian deterministic and ensemble
totals. Given that models generally show the better warm air
advection and frontogenesis (especially 700-500 mb) south of
the forecast area, currently leaning towards the lower
solutions. Even with these numbers though, snow totals are still
reaching 6"+ without much trouble given this is a colder system
and snow to liquid ratios will average around 15-16 to 1. A
solid depth to the dendrite growth zone and persistent lift
within this zone also suggest decent SLRs.

Still looking at the potential for some lake enhancement as well
given models are coming into better agreement in a period of
prolonged southeast flow from 1000 to 850 mb. Kept some higher
totals in the east, which prompted the need to expand the Winter
Storm Watch to include Sheboygan and Fond du Lac counties. Also
included Marquette and Green Lake counties given the amounts
look marginally high enough along with the remaining potential
for some higher totals. Delayed the watch start time a bit given
latest trends with the start of the accumulating and impactful
snowfall.

The best period of accumulating snowfall is currently expected
to occur from mid/late Sat morning into Saturday night, with
snow winding down later Sat night into Sun morning. Breezy winds
and chilly temps are likely Sunday, with a little
blowing/drifting of the snow possible if the winds end up any
higher than currently anticipated.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 327 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Sunday night through Thursday:

The extended models support a large upper low over Hudson Bay and
extending into nrn Quebec for next week, while mean shortwave
troughing will be in the vicinity of the Desert SW with an
upstream upper ridge in the ern Pacific Ocean. This yields a split wnwly
flow aloft for the central USA. Srn WI will be between a series
of shortwave troughs in the split flow for the week, although
slight chances (20%) for snow are forecast at times. At the
surface, polar high pressure and cold temps are expected for Mon-
Tue AM followed by swly winds and warm advection Tue afternoon
into Wed AM. A Canadian cold front will then pass late Wed
afternoon or night with cold advection and wnwly sfc winds into
Thu. High temps will be in the 20s most days with lows in the
single digits most nights.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 327 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Flurries and occasional moderate snow showers persist at times
through late afternoon under continued cyclonic flow. A dusting
is not out of the question within briefly heavier snow showers.
Flurries should diminish this evening, with dry weather then
expected tonight through the day Friday.

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will persist into tonight, with
decreasing clouds then likely by later tonight into Friday,
especially across the northeast forecast area. Northwest winds
will gust 20 to 30 knots through late afternoon, the highest
gusts in the east. Winds will then gradually ease tonight into
Friday, becoming light out of the west by late afternoon or
early evening tomorrow.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 327 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Low pressure of 29.4 inches over western Quebec will slowly
move eastward through Friday with some weakening. Occasional
gale force gusts will continue today over all of the lake, then
into this evening over the northern one third of the lake. A
ridge of high pressure will then move across the lake Friday
night with light and variable winds expected.

Low pressure of 29.8 inches will then track from eastern Kansas
Saturday morning to the southern tip of Lake Michigan Saturday
night, and then reach Lake Huron by mid Sunday while deepening to
29.7 inches. Widespread, moderate to heavy snow will overspread
the south half of Lake Michigan. Brisk southeast winds Saturday
will become easterly and then westerly as the low crosses the
Great Lakes region. Gales are not anticipated at this time,
although a period of gusty northwest winds is expected Sunday.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-
     WIZ064-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...3 AM
     Saturday to 6 AM Sunday.

     Winter Storm Watch...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ065-
     WIZ066...6 AM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878 until 6 PM Thursday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 until midnight
     Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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