453
FXUS63 KMKX 040444
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1044 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Off and on periods of rain along with a few isolated storms
  continue through Thursday.

- Drier and cooler conditions Friday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1000 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Tonight through Thursday night:

Tonight expect on and off rain showers ahead of a dry slot later
tonight. Mid to upper level moisture will drop out and thus
lead to a period of drier conditions. This may not completely
eliminate precip potential as there will be some moisture in the
lower levels but drizzle at best would be the most likely
scenario. This dry slot will likely keep Wednesday largely dry
outside of perhaps the far NW portions of the CWA which may
maintain a bit more mid to upper level moisture and thus be
capable of sustaining some precip in the area. Elsewhere perhaps
a few pockets of light showers here or there could be expected
but in general should remain dry through much of Wednesday night
before the backside of the surface low starts to swing through.

As the backside of the low swings through that will bring in
the better precip chances back across the region late Wednesday
night through Thursday as moisture fills back in in the mid to
upper levels. PVA and TROWAL activity will provide the main
forcing though forcing will not be overly strong and thus light
precip is most likely. Precip will likely finally push out
Thursday night as the surface low moves toward the eastern Great
Lakes with higher pressure nudging in behind it. It is worth
noting that with upper level closed lows, models are often to
quick to push them out so it would not shock me to see some
precip chances linger into Friday.

Otherwise, while I cannot rule out a rumble of thunder the setup
is not favorable for much lightning with very limited
instability and a largely stratiform precip pattern expected
when precip pushes through. The best chance may be in the dry
slot Wednesday afternoon/evening for isolated storm activity.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1045 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Friday through Tuesday:

The upper low over Lower Michigan Friday morning should steadily
exit to Lake Erie by Saturday morning. Brisk northerly winds and a
high amount of cloud cover will linger through much of the day
Friday, especially closer to Lake Michigan. Highs are expected to
be just below 50. With clearing skies Friday night as high
pressure briefly takes hold, and 850mb temps dropping to around
negative 4C, our low temps are expected to drop into the upper
20s inland from Lake Michigan. Since we are well past our
climatological freeze dates, we will not be issuing any
frost/freeze headlines.

There is another potent mid level shortwave trough in line to
cross the Upper Midwest on Saturday. This should dive south
through IA and IL (or further southwest) and any winds or precip
associated with it will miss southern WI. Highs here Sat will be
around 50 with light winds. Skies will trend toward sunny.

Sunday will bring a steady westerly breeze as weak high pressure
moves across the Plains. Highs will inch warmer into the mid 50s
under mostly sunny skies.

A dry low pressure system will track across Ontario Monday. This
will bring breezy southwest winds to southern WI, but also help to
warm us back into the upper 50s to around 60.

A mid level shortwave trough is expected to track across the Upper
Great Lakes sometime around Tuesday. It looks like the only impact
this might have on southern WI is the potential for brisk
northerly winds in its wake on Wednesday. Temperatures should
remain mild (warmer than normal) for most of the week.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1000 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Pockets of VFR conditions continue across parts of eastern WI
but as precip moves in should be expected to lower to MVFR with
some MVFR VSBYS possible in spots with the rain. To the far west,
MVFR CIGS continue with less VSBY concerns given the likely
drier conditions as most of the precip will stay to the east.
Drier conditions to expand later tonight through much of the TAF
period with MVFR CIGS expected to persist as well. Rain will
return late Wednesday night through Thursday.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1000 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Low pressure around 29.5 inches sits over MN/IA this evening.
This will drive gusty southerly winds across the lake through
Wednesday. Gales have ended across the lake though gusty winds to
30 kts will remain possible through Wednesday night as the low
pivots north to the Upper Peninsula and deepens to 29.4 inches.
This system will weaken somewhat as it tracks east and gradually
pushes out of the area Thursday night into Friday. On the backside
of this low pressure system expected a period of breezy north
winds. Perhaps a few gales will be possible, particularly on the
northern side of the Lake earlier on and then becoming likely
during the day Friday. Gale Warning may be needed for Friday.

Otherwise, expect periods of rain and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder will accompany low pressure tonight through midweek. In
addition the Small Craft Advisory has been extended until noon
Thursday due to breezy SW winds continuing into Thursday ahead
of the frontal passage.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 12
     PM Thursday.

&&

$$

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