Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
270 FXUS63 KMKX 131639 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1039 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the remainder of the week then return to near normal for early next week. - 40 to 50 percent chances for rain showers Mon nt. && .UPDATE... Issued 1039 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 The wind will gradually shift from west to south through this evening, but remain fairly light. High clouds this morning will give way to an area of mid level clouds this afternoon. High temperatures are on track to reach the mid 50s this afternoon. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 219 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Today through Sunday night: A weak sfc ridge will slowly shift ewd across WI today. Aloft, 850-700 mb warm advection and weak frontogenesis will follow for the afternoon and evening. Some mid level cloud cover will occur but with no precipitation. An upper ridge axis will then arrive late on Fri in response to a strong upper wave moving from sw Canada to south central Canada. Ssely sfc winds and the passage of a warm front will boost temps to the lower to middle 60s inland from the lake. The warm front is associated with a surface trough that will move from the Dakotas to Lake Superior and nrn WI through 12Z Sat. Continued warm, moist advection on swly winds will make for a mild Fri nt but also bring some uncertainty regarding low stratus and drizzle potential. The main upper wave over srn Canada, and additional shortwave troughs tracking across the Upper MS River Valley into the Great Lakes, will then induce cyclogenesis along the sfc trough as it moves into ern Ontario. This will allow a strong cold front to then arrive Sat afternoon with brisk nwly winds through Sunday. Temps will drop to near normal for Sunday. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 219 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Monday through Wednesday: Kicking off the work week with a trough in the eastern CONUS and a few shortwaves across the Central Plains and southwestern CONUS. These shortwaves will be moving through the larger flow of a weak ridge to our west. The trough out east and weak ridging to our west puts Wisconsin on the edge of PVA aloft and rising heights. In this position, the shortwaves will be the primary driver for any precipitation through midweek. There is a lot of discrepancies between the deterministic runs of the longer range models which is leading to uncertainty throughout the extended. Regardless of this the model blend NBM does seem to be lagging behind just a bit with the rain potential for Monday night. Which isn`t really surprising given the shift in guidance. The GFS and CAN show a shortwave approaching the Midwest and passing to the south of Wisconsin Monday night into Tuesday morning. The EURO by contrast has this shortwave lifting north and riding the ridge. POPs seem a bit high in the extended due to the NBM, since a lot of the other solutions show rain missing southern Wisconsin to the north or south. Should the trend continue POPs will decrease from run to run overtime. The lone exception to this could be far southern Wisconsin which does get clipped by rain showers in this current run of the GFS. The ridge builds in Tuesday and Wednesday with a few more shortwaves trying to move through the flow and clip the Great Lakes Region. The ridge looks to win out across the state which keeps POP chances low and temps pleasant (near normal) for mid November. Not much mention here for Tuesday and Wednesday, but beyond that, guidance looks to have a trough/low pressure swing through for the end of the week. Take this with a grain of salt given all the uncertainty prior to this, but our best chance for rain could be just beyond the forecast period. Patterson && .AVIATION... Issued 1039 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 VFR conditions today into Friday morning. Mid level clouds will move across srn WI from this afternoon through tonight but no rainfall is expected. Gehring/Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 219 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Gusty northwest winds will gradually ease this morning as high pressure of 30.2 inches moves in from the west. The high will be centered to the south of Lake Michigan, resulting in the winds becoming westerly tomorrow. Lighter winds will continue Thursday night, becoming southerly Friday and increasing Friday night ahead of an approaching low. Breezy west to northwest winds will then develop for later Saturday into Sunday behind the low and associated cold front. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed this weekend from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee