858
FXUS63 KMKX 022354
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
554 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Off & on periods of rain & isolated storms continue into
  Wednesday morning.

- Hit & miss showers linger Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

- Drier and cooler conditions Friday into Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 555 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

An axis of steadier rainfall has formed from eastern IA into
central WI, visible on radar (as of 5:40 PM) and co-located with
some analyzed deep moist convergence into the Low Level Jet.
This feature is expected to shift slightly eastward this evening
into tonight, delivering some additional rainfall to southern
WI, with the majority of it falling on areas NW of a Janesville
to Sheboygan line. Analyzed MUCAPE with this line is currently
+250 joules; combined with the synoptic forcing for ascent we
could see a few rumbles of thunder out of it, though as I
currently write this, thunder has been confined southwest of the
state.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 140 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

This Afternoon through Wednesday Night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Low pressure is centered along the South
Dakota-North Dakota-Minnesota border early this afternoon. An
attendant cold front has been analyzed from the Nebraska Sandhills
toward the Colorado Front Range, with a north-south warm front
extending from the Missouri River to Wichita, Kansas. Large scale
increases in warm air advection/isentropic ascent have triggered
swaths of rain to the northeast of the warm front, with the leading
edge of widespread activity beginning to approach the Mississippi
River as of 1 PM CST. Expecting this first area of widespread rain
to move across at least the northwest half of the CWA late this
afternoon/this evening (~3-10 PM peak), pivoting northeast
thereafter. Showers and storms will blossom along the aforementioned
Great Plains cold front this evening, ultimately working toward
southern Wisconsin Tuesday morning/afternoon (~6 AM-4 PM peak). The
cold front will approach the area Tuesday evening, slowly pushing
through during the overnight & first half of Wednesday morning (~8
PM Tuesday-10 AM Wednesday). Additional areas of rain are expected
along the passing front. A few thunderstorms could mix in with any
batch of rain occurring now through Wednesday morning, with severe
weather hazards not anticipated. Rain totals of at least 0.5" remain
expected areawide, with higher totals of 1" or more possible over
the western half of the CWA. Flooding concerns are low.

Rest of this afternoon-early evening: Expecting the first batch of
rain to move in during the ~3-10 PM time frame. Anticipating more
focused activity during this period, as an approaching shortwave
will be moving across southern Wisconsin/supplementing lift provided
by warm advection. Thinking that the most widespread activity will
focus over the northwest half of the CWA (roughly near and north of
the US-151 Corridor), which will be coincident with the core of the
encroaching/passing shortwave. Could still nevertheless see more
scattered/lighter activity extend into southeast Wisconsin. Thinking
that any isolated storms will remain over the northwest half of the
area, where weak (~100 J/kg) MUCAPE values are forecast to remain
confined. Could see lighter/more scattered rain continue beyond ~10
PM, with the loss of shortwave-affiliated lift being the main reason
for reductions in coverage.

Tuesday morning-afternoon: Expecting that the remnants of
showers/storms developing over the Central Plains tonight will make
it to & progress across southern Wisconsin. Current expectations of
a ~6 AM-4 PM peak time frame will likely refine through this evening
as radar trends clarify. With ~100 J/kg MUCAPE values progged to be
building east, could see an isolated storm mix in areawide. With
~1.5" precipitable waters entrenched across the region, brief heavy
downpours would be the main impact in any isolated storms.

Tuesday evening-Wednesday morning: Anticipating one more push of
widespread precip as the primary surface front slowly moves through
southern Wisconsin. Expecting that the last of the measurable
rainfall from this storm system will fall in this batch. Highest
totals are progged across the western half of the area, as this is
where widespread batches of rain will be most likely to track
repeatedly. With the anticipated totals falling over a more
prolonged period time, flooding impacts should remain minimal.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 140 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Thursday through Monday:

Synopsis: Upper troughing will linger over the western Great Lakes
Thursday into Thursday night, gradually becoming replaced by an area
of upper ridging Friday night into Saturday. Beneath the upper
height falls, surface low pressure will migrate from the Lake
Superior vicinity toward Quebec Thursday into Friday. Progression of
the low will pull a secondary cold front through southern Wisconsin
at some point Thursday afternoon or evening. Lift from the passing
front & lingering upper trough will support scattered rain chances
Thursday into perhaps Friday. Cooler conditions will prevail behind
the front Friday into Saturday. A clipper system will move into the
Upper Mississippi Valley late Saturday night into Sunday, bringing
chances for widely scattered rain showers. A precip-free forecast
returns by Monday.

Thursday through Friday: Scattered, hit & miss rain chances will
continue, particularly during the day Thursday when ample amounts of
synoptic forcing will be available regionally. Anticipating greatest
pop-up shower coverage during the daytime hours Thursday, when
surface heating + frontal convergence will combine with cold mid-
level temperatures to create very favorable conditions for
overturning in the low-mid part of the column. NBM precip
probabilities do well in reflecting this peak potential, and have
been maintained in the afternoon update. If upper troughing lingers
long enough, could see additional diurnal pop-ups near Lake Michigan
on Friday, though potential precip will be combating an absence of
near-surface forcing and drier air moving in from the north. Have
maintained slight chance (~20%) precip probabilities from the NBM
across the east for the time-being, but will be monitoring for
possible removals as this part of the period draws closer. Not
expecting any hazards in Thursday-Friday showers.

Sunday: Passing clipper system will provide DVPA/forcing for rain,
though lift will need to overcome dry conditions in the low levels.
Current slight chance (~20%) precip probabilities appear reasonable
given limitations in set-up. Will be monitoring for changes later
this week. No hazards are expected in any precip.

Quigley

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 555 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Periods of rain, low cloud ceilings, and gusty south winds are
expected to continue through the TAF period as a low pressure
system and associated frontal zone approach from the west. A few
rumbles of thunder will be possible as well, though no strong or
severe storms are expected at this time. FL020 winds (south at
45 kt or locally higher) will outpace the surface winds (south
with gusts to 20-25 kt) and lead to some marginal LLWS
overnight tonight.

Cloud ceilings expected to linger at IFR levels through tonight
and into Tuesday, with lower (LIFR) ceilings at times due to
rain humidifying the lower atmosphere. A slight rise to
predominantly Fuel Alt MVFR levels is possible midday into the
afternoon Tuesday, followed by a lowering trend Tuesday night
(likely predominantly IFR/LIFR once again).

Using a mix of PROB30, TEMPO, and Prevailing RA in the TAFs to
follow the expected arrival / exit times for each round of
rainfall. TS / CB are not currently a part of the TAF given low
confidence in occurrence / placement of said storms. That said,
trends will be followed, and some TS could be added in future
TAF amendments.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 140 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Low pressure near 996 mb will progress into the Upper Mississippi
River Valley by early tomorrow morning. Winds will steadily become
gusty ahead of the low, approaching or exceeding gale force over at
least the central third of the lake late Tuesday morning and Tuesday
afternoon. A Gale Warning is now in effect over this portion of the
waters between 9 AM-6 PM CST Tuesday. Rain will accompany the
approaching/passing low tonight through Tuesday night, with a few
thunderstorms possibly mixing in. Severe weather is not expected at
this time.

1000 mb low pressure will stagnate over northern Wisconsin on
Wednesday, steadily progressing from Lake Superior into Quebec
Wednesday night into Friday morning. Progression of the low will
result in a gradual trend toward westerly and eventually
northwesterly winds Thursday into Friday. Winds will be breezy
through this time frame, though they are expected to remain below
gale thresholds. Winds will taper by the weekend as 1016 mb high
pressure builds into the western Great Lakes.

Prolonged Small Craft Advisory conditions continue in nearshore
zones this morning into mid-week. Could see a few gales from North
Point Light north to Sheboygan Tuesday morning & afternoon, though
confidence in widespread conditions is too low for Gale Warnings at
this time. Will be monitoring trends into tonight. Conditions will
improve Wednesday night into Thursday. An additional, shorter period
of Small Craft Advisory conditions may materialize on Friday, with
trends being monitored for possible headlines through this week.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...9
     AM Tuesday to 6 PM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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