204
FXUS63 KMKX 020647
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1247 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of widespread rain & isolated storms arrive Today and
  continue through Tuesday night.

- Hit & miss showers linger Wednesday & Thursday.

- Drier and cooler conditions Friday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1245 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Monday through Wednesday night:

Upper Air / Synopsis:
A high-amplitude upper-air pattern is currently established
across the CONUS, featuring a deep trough over the Rocky
Mountains and a ridge across the upper Mississippi River Valley,
with both features slowly shifting east. A strong jet streak is
currently lifting into the crest of the ridge, with winds
turning supergeostrophic and creating additional speed
divergence near eastern Colorado. A strong surface low pressure
beneath this divergence will lift northeast into MN by this
evening, slowing down thereafter. The 500 mb trough then evolves
into a cutoff low midweek, allowing the surface low to stall
it`s movement and linger over the Upper Great Lakes region as it
slowly occludes and vertically stacks with the upper low. For
southern WI, this active weather pattern will lead to cloudy
skies, periods of rainfall, chances for a few thunderstorms
(though none are anticipated to be strong or severe at this
time), and unseasonably warm weather (particularly on Tuesday).

Early This Morning:
Current METAR reports across central and southern IL indicate
lower cloud ceilings, which will lift northward as 850 mb
southerly flow increases to 25-30 kt. Trace amounts of drizzle
will be possible under these clouds, and we`re expecting them to
arrive between 4 and 8 AM this morning. That said, the odds for
measurable precip are currently limited to ~15%.

Today-Tonight:
Through the daytime hours today, the surface low will track
northeast across South Dakota, leading to increasing WAA and
moist advection across WI as we enter the warm sector. South to
southeast winds at the surface gradually build to roughly 15
mph, gusting to 25 mph. Simultaneously, some 30-60% chances for
rain showers begin to build eastward into the CWA. As the
surface low continues across MN into tonight, a potent LLJ
overspreads the CWA and rain chances rise to 35-95%. Some
isolated embedded thunderstorms would then become possible as
CAMs and Ensemble Models show some 100-250 joule MUCAPE values,
with a handful of ECMWF-ENS members closer to 500 joules. The
eastward extent of these showers remains uncertain given the
lingering effects of upper ridging and weaker WAA. The far
southeastern corner of WI, for example, only has ~30% precip
chances at this time.

Tuesday-Tuesday Night:
Tonight`s LLJ will boost PWAT values to ~1.6" across southern
WI, with lingering weak MUCAPE. A cold front slowly builds east
into the region Tuesday through Tuesday night, occluding as it
passes. We expect the bulk of the rain to fall during this
period (due to the stronger synoptic forcing). Instability looks
to remain too weak for any stronger thunderstorms, though we
could see some locally heavy downpours given the high PWAT. NBM
QPF totals through this whole event (Mon-Wed) are around
0.4-0.8" across the CWA, highest further west. Locally higher
totals over 1" will be possible for areas that receive any
convective thundershowers in addition to the larger-scale system
rainfall. Tuesday will also feature the strongest southerly
winds (gusts up to 30 mph, locally higher to 35) and the warmest
temperatures (highs around 70). The MKE and MSN daily high temp
records are 74 and 76 degrees (respectively) for Nov 3, so not
quite `record breaking` but certainly well above normal for this
time of year.

Wednesday-Wednesday Night:
Through this last phase of the event, the cutoff low lingers over
the Upper Great Lakes (likely centered near the UP of Michigan)
and continues to occlude. Some 50-70% chances for periods of light
rain linger in the forecast as wrap-around (post-occlusion)
precip passes through, but by in large the steady rainfall and
thunder chances should be over at this point. Chances decline
further into Wednesday night.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1245 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Thursday through Sunday:

The aforementioned cutoff low will begin a slow eastward retreat
from near the UP of Michigan on Thursday, though models continue
to hint at the possibility of some light rain in the cool sector
of this system Thursday into Thursday night (15-45% chances).
Predominantly dry weather expected through much of the rest of
this period, only a slight signal for a clipper system to
deliver more rain chances late in the weekend. Air temperatures
should be close to seasonal norms through the period, with
highs in the low/mid 50s and overnight lows in the 30s to 40s.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1245 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

An area of ~1,000 ft cloud ceilings (Fuel Alt MVFR to IFR
levels) is gradually lifting north from central / southern IL,
and should reach southern WI around daybreak this morning,
lingering at similar altitudes or perhaps lifting closer to
~1,500 ft through the day. South-southeast winds will accelerate
late this morning, becoming gusty this afternoon through
tonight. Rain showers gradually work east into southern WI this
afternoon into tonight, with timing reflected in the TAFs. A few
thunderstorms and locally-heavy downpours are possible tonight,
but no strong or severe storms are anticipated at this time.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1245 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Open Waters / Synopsis:
High pressure around 30.5 inches will linger over the Mid
Atlantic States through dawn this morning before beginning a
slow eastward retreat into the Atlantic Ocean. Light south to
southeasterly winds continue early this morning, accelerating
later this morning as low pressure around 29.4 inches lifts
northeast across South Dakota. Winds will steadily become gusty
ahead of the incoming low pressure, approaching or exceeding
gale force over the central third of the lake Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Headlines may become necessary in later forecasts.
Rain will accompany this low pressure system tonight through
Wednesday, with a few thunderstorms possibly mixing in. Severe
weather is not expected at this time.

Low pressure is expected to stall near the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan / Lake Superior midweek, leading to continued breezy
south winds across Lake Michigan. The low will make a slow
eastward exit later in the work week, allowing winds to veer west
and eventually north. High pressure around 30.2 inches builds into
Ontario Canada late this week, which should allow winds to
gradually subside into the weekend.

Nearshore Zones:
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 9 AM this morning
through at least Wednesday afternoon due to gusty southerly
winds and high waves. Gales cannot be completely ruled out on
Tuesday.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 AM
     Monday to 3 PM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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