639
FXUS63 KMKX 290244 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
944 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect for a high swim risk at
  the Lake Michigan beaches into early Friday morning.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters
  for high waves into early Friday morning.

- Only slight chances for showers Friday afternoon and night
  over south central Wisconsin.

- A period of dry and fair weather is forecast for Saturday
  into early next week. Temperatures will be several degrees
  below normal during this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 944 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Light winds and clear skies are expected overnight into Friday
morning away from Lake Michigan. There may be fog that develops
during this period in the Wisconsin River Valley, perhaps dense
at times, with some light fog and low stratus clouds possible
generally west of Madison.

There should be scattered to broken lake effect clouds that
shift southwest into the lakeshore counties overnight into
Friday morning as well, with favorable delta T values and low
level flow and moisture from the northeast.

Lows tonight should drop into the middle to upper 40s for most
areas away from the lake. Highs Friday should remain in the
upper 60s northeast to the lower 70s southwest.

There may be some showers that clip areas around and west of
Madison Friday afternoon, with some 850 mb to 700 mb warm air
advection and moisture. Kept generally 20 percent chances for
showers going in the forecast. Clouds from this activity should
spread east into south central Wisconsin during the afternoon.

The Beach Hazards Statement for a high swim risk remains in
effect until 7 AM CDT Friday morning for the Lake Michigan
beaches from Sheboygan south through Kenosha County. Northeast
winds will gradually weaken overnight into early Friday morning,
with waves slowly subsiding below 4 feet by 7 AM CDT Friday
morning. Waves will quickly subside to around 2 feet or less by
late morning into the afternoon, as winds continue to weaken.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 201 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Tonight through Friday night:

A clearing trend will continue into the early evening while
high pressure will build south from Ontario late tnt and Friday
into ern WI and Lake MI. Areas of fog, possibly dense in the WI
River Valley, is forecast west of Madison for early Fri AM. The
low level moisture will be greatest over this area with drier
air to the east. Lake effect clouds will affect the lake
counties for Fri AM via nely 1000-850 mb flow and unstable lake
conditions, but the wind flow will weaken in the afternoon with
decreasing clouds expected. Farther to the west 20 percent
chances for showers are forecast in the afternoon and night via
a weak warm, moist advection pattern at 850-700 mb. The passage
of a weak shortwave trough may aid a bit in the overall lift.
Temps will remain a bit on the cool side.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 201 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Saturday through Thursday:

High pressure will be centered over MI on Sat, but
stratocumulus clouds could linger or redevelop with the passage
of a weak vorticity maximum, especially over south central WI.
The sfc high pressure will then reorient from west to east
across the Great Lakes including WI for Sun-Mon in response to
an upper ridge over south central Canada rolling over into srn
Ontario and srn Quebec. Thus pleasant weather will continue with
high temps warming into the upper 70s.

For the middle of the week a fairly significant upper trough
may dig into the Great Lakes from Canada. This would bring
chances for showers and storms, but also significant cooling.
The NBM temps are currently forecasting highs in the lower 60s
for Thu.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 944 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Light winds and clear skies are expected overnight into Friday
morning away from Lake Michigan. There may be fog that develops
during this period in the Wisconsin River Valley, perhaps dense
at times, with some light fog and low stratus clouds possible
generally west of the Madison terminal.

There should be scattered to broken lake effect clouds around
2000 feet AGL that shift southwest into the lakeshore terminals
overnight into Friday morning as well. These ceilings should
gradually rise above 3000 feet AGL by later Friday afternoon.
Light northeast winds will linger near the lake overnight.

There may be some showers that clip areas around and west of
the Madison terminal Friday afternoon. Ceilings around 4000 feet
AGL from this activity should spread east into south central
Wisconsin during the afternoon. Light southeast to east winds
are expected well inland Friday, with modest east to northeast
winds for terminals near Lake Michigan. Light winds will return
Friday night.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 944 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Breezy northeast winds are expected to gradually weaken
overnight into Friday morning, with waves slowly subsiding. The
Small Craft Advisory continues until 7 AM CDT Friday morning for
the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan.

High pressure around 30.2 inches will then prevail over the
Great Lakes region for Friday afternoon into the Labor Day
weekend. This will bring an extended period of light and
variable winds, along with quiet weather.

Gehring/Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until 7 AM Friday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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