281
FXUS63 KMKX 152024
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
224 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder but more seasonable temperatures are expected tonight
  into next week.

- A rain or rain/snow mix (40 to 70 percent chances) are still
  forecast for Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 224 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Tonight through Monday:

Gusty northwest winds are expected tonight into Sunday, as cold
air advection pushes through the region. This will bring colder
but more seasonable temperatures to the area. There may be some
lingering stratocumulus clouds that linger into this evening,
though they should dissipate by midnight.

Lows tonight should be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with
highs Sunday in the middle to upper 40s. Wind chills will be in
the 20s later tonight and mainly in the 30s on Sunday.

High pressure will then shift southeast into the region Sunday
night, helping to bring lighter winds. Lows should drop into the
middle 20s for most of the area. A dry day with light winds and
seasonable temperatures are expected on Monday, as the high
slowly shifts to the east.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 224 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Monday night through Saturday:

Models generally take a surface low from the central Plains
across Missouri and southern Illinois Monday night into Tuesday
night while slowly weakening. Ensembles are similar with this
low track during this period. A 500 mb shortwave trough shifts
east southeast across the region later Monday night into
Tuesday, providing upward vertical motion from differential CVA
associated with it.

There is some indications of a low level jet nose trying to
point into central and northern Illinois, perhaps into far
southern Wisconsin. The focused warm air advection in the low
levels seems to remain just south of the area, though the
baroclinic zone gets pretty close to the Wisconsin and Illinois
border area. 850 mb to 700 mb frontogenesis response also pushes
east southeast through the area.

Thus, there should be enough upward vertical motion and deep
air column moisture to bring a round of precipitation Monday
night into Tuesday. Continued to carry generally 40 to 70
percent PoPs for this period, highest in the south and central
areas and lower to the far north.

As far as precipitation types go, it looks to be mainly a
rain/snow mix potential, though the isothermal look to some of
the forecast soundings may allow for some ice pellets to occur.
For now, surface and near-surface temperatures may stay warm
enough for mainly rain in the south, with a mix more possible in
the northern parts of the forecast area. This forecast may
change as we get closer and the thermal structure of this system
becomes more apparent. Keep up with the forecast.

Deterministic models and ensembles are then showing a more
organized low pressure system shifting northeast from the
southern Plains through the western Great Lakes region later in
the week. At this time, the track appears to be just southeast
of the area on Friday, though there may be many fluctuations to
this as we move into next week. Temperature profiles suggest
mainly rain at this time, but will see how things evolve with
this system.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 224 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Gusty northwest winds are expected tonight into Sunday, as
colder air pushes through the region. There may be some
lingering stratocumulus clouds that linger into this evening,
though they should dissipate by midnight. High pressure will
then shift southeast into the region Sunday night, helping to
bring lighter winds.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 224 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Brisk northwest winds are expected to continue into Sunday.
Wind gusts around 30 knots are expected during this period, with
a few gale force gusts possible in the northern third of the
open waters, as well as along the eastern lakeshore areas. Still
do not have high enough confidence for gusts exceeding gale
force for extended period, thus will continue to hold off on
gale headlines at this time.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday for the
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan, for gusty northwest winds.

Winds begin to ease Sunday night through Monday, as high
pressure around 30.1 inches builds into the Upper Midwest.
Another low pressure system around 29.8 inches is expected to
track from the Central Plains to south of Lake Michigan through
the middle of next week. This may result in increasing easterly
winds.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM
     Sunday.

&&

$$

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