108
FXUS63 KMKX 172109
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
309 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band or rain along and south of I-94, Wintry mix north of
  I-94 and mostly snow over central to east central Wisconsin
  will occur overnight into Tuesday morning. Snow accumulations
  between 1 to 2 inches are anticipated over central WI, while
  areas elsewhere north of I-94 will see a slushy dusting to 1
  inch of accumulation. Tuesday morning commute impacts will be
  most likely over central WI.

- Additional precipitation chances for the latter portion of the
  workweek. Rain is favored at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 251 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Tonight, low pressure is anticipated to move from the central
plains toward the Mississippi River. As this happens,
700mb frontogenesis and WAA on the north side of the low is
anticipated to bring banded precipitation to southern WI, with
this precip moving in from southwest to northeast around and
after midnight. With colder and drier air in position over
northern to central WI, wet bulbing is expected to support a
transition to rain/snow mix north of I-94. All snow is more
likely over central WI where temperatures profiles remain colder
than freezing through a larger depth of the atmosphere. With the
anticipated change over to snow, temperatures profiles will
generally support low ratios ranging from 4:1 to 8:1, leading to
slushy wet snow. Rates will also be modest, as HREF guidance
supports 0.25 to 0.5 inch per hour rates through the night.
Given the lower snow ratios and rates, combined with 0.25 to 0.5
inches of QPF, snow totals are expected to be between 1 to 2
inches over central to east central WI, with totals tapering of
to a trace south toward I-94.

With most of the snow occuring overnight, some commute impacts
may occur over central to east central WI Tuesday morning. Warm
advection is then expected to win out Tuesday morning with a
gradualy south to north change over to rain into the afternoon.

One lingering bit of uncertainty has to do with the position of
the heaviest snow. 12Z guidance suggests that the highest snow
totals will remain north of the CWA limiting higher impacts,
which is a shift from previous forecasts. 18Z guidance seems to
suggest a slight shift back south, though models disagree in the
magnitude of this shift. (The HRRR being the most aggressive.)
For now, have stuck with this 12Z guidance, but trends will be
monitored into tonight for any last minute shifts in the snow
band.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 242 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Wednesday through Monday:

High pressure over the Great Lakes will begin to shift out of the
area on Wednesday. A weak mid level shortwave should give us mid/high
clouds over the state, but there is also some indication that the
steeper low level lapse rates could cause diurnal cumulus clouds
as well. While sprinkles seem unlikely, they are a possibility
Wednesday afternoon and into the evening hours as low level
warm air advection ramps up. Wednesday highs will be in the mid
40s, Wed nt lows will be in the mid 30s.

Thursday, an upper trough will be swinging across Lake Superior,
so precip chances extend into central WI from that. Meanwhile,
ongoing low level warm air advection will allow for a fairly deep
profile of increasing moisture (from mid levels north and low
levels south) so southern WI has a chance (15 to 23% in the
morning and 25 to 30% in the afternoon-evening) of light rain.
Temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s during this
time. Cold advection will follow this exiting area of precip and
temps should drop to around 30 Thu nt. The below-freezing temps
would only occur if skies clear, as the cold advection is not
strong.

Clouds (but also small rain chances (18-25%)) will linger across
southern WI Friday. This is due to weakening low pressure tracking
across the mid Mississippi River Valley. The northern edge of the
precip is trending south in the forecast and may be removed at a
later time.

The weekend looks quiet and mild as high pressure drifts across
the region. Highs will be above normal, in the mid-upper 40s, and
lows will be around 30. Winds should be on the lighter side as
well.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 251 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR clouds cover is expected to linger into this evening, with
ceilings gradually decreasing to MVFR and IFR as rain and snow
moves into the area tonight. Areas north of a line from KMSN to
KMKE will see a rain snow mix overnight, while areas along a
line from KDLL to KFLD will see more in the way of all snow.
Generally, slushy accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected
over central WI, with diminishing totals the further south.

Winds will be ESE-erly and will become breezy around daybreak
Tuesday.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 243 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Low pressure will move from the Central Plains through the
central Mississippi Valley region tonight into tomorrow
afternoon. As this happens, light and variable winds overnight,
will come around to southeasterly and easterly through tomorrow
morning. Winds will become breezy over the southern half of the
lake as the low moves into the Ohio River Valley tomorrow
evening. Winds then ease Wednesday as high pressure moves over
the lake.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...6 AM Tuesday to 9 PM
     Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...6 AM Tuesday to
     midnight Wednesday.

&&

$$

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