370
FXUS63 KMKX 162109
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
409 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tornadoes, damaging winds and heavy rainfall this afternoon
  and early evening through 7pm.

- Very warm and humid conditions today with maximum heat indices
  in the lower 90s for the first half of the day.

- Heavy rainfall with 1-2 inches will be possible this
  afternoon/evening, especially for areas north of I-94 where
  localized pockets of >2 inches will be possible and result in
  minor flood concerns for low-lying and urban areas.

- Looking cooler and drier Thursday into Friday May see
  elevated swim risk conditions Thursday, especially for areas
  south of Port Washington to the WI/IL lakeshore border.

- Unsettled weather returns for the weekend with 30-50% shower
  and storm chances Saturday and Sunday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 409 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Severe threat will continue for the next few hours with the line
of storms extending from Green Lake county south into Jefferson
county being the expected end of the threat. Still have to watch
the southern end of the line for a renewed tornado threat as
this environment is relatively untouched and the 16.21z RAP
analysis shows a maxima of 0-1km shear of 20-25kt nosing up into
Rock/Walworth counties. SBCAPE looks to have come down a bit to
around 2000 J/kg. Effective 0-6km bulk shear in SE WI remains
around 30-40kts and decent enough to keep the chances for
organized storms going. The lake breeze has shifted east and
currently appears to be around Washington county down through
eastern Waukesha county and could be a source for extra low
level vorticity as the storms rolls through.

Halbach

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 108 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

This afternoon and tonight:

Tornado Watch in effect through 6pm this evening as storms have
already developed and started producing tornadoes. An initial
arcing band of convection has developed from west central WI
down through SW Wisconsin. 16.17z RAP analysis shows a highly
unstable environment with SBCAPE pushing 3000-4000 J/kg with
effective 0-6km shear. Storms have quickly developed with strong
rotation and ingested the higher instability. Trends continue to
favor this environment developing eastward across southern
Wisconsin through the late afternoon. Winds are southeasterly at
the surface which is enhancing the low level inflow to these
initial storms and in turn is increasing the tornado risk. Some
strong tornadoes will be possible due to this higher instability
and better low level inflow.

A secondary area of convection is still expected to develop
further west of this initial band of convection and also will
have the potential to produce a second round of severe storms.
Surface winds go a bit more southwesterly and there`s decent
clearing showing up on satellite for where dry air is punching
into this line. Thinking that if additional convection develops
along that area is that it may be more of a wind risk along the
north to south boundary.

Halbach

&&

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Wednesday:

High pressure will push into southern Wisconsin on Thursday
behind the cold front from today`s system. This will lead to
dangerous beach conditions for much of Thursday.

With the ridge drifting eastward across the Great Lakes,
conditions look to remain dry going into Friday though
temperatures should rebound a little bit with return southerly
flow though dew points will still be on the comfortable side in
the 50s.

Going into the weekend and early next week, the upper level flow
goes more zonal with a ridge developing across the Plains. With
the return, southerly low level flow, it appears that a warm front
or nose of warm air advection will push back into southern
Wisconsin Friday night according to the GFS/ECMWF and may linger
into Saturday as an 850mb/surface low propagates through. Low
level moisture transport will be in place as well to help develop
convection much of Saturday before the boundary sags back to the
south. Looking like a multi-MCS setup which will be fairly
uncertain until the days before it sets up.

Sunday into Monday look to be dry with the boundary stalling out
to the southwest.

Halbach

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 108 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Conditions will drop to MVFR as storms move in with visibility
possibly dropping below 1sm and ceilings getting down to around
2kft. These storms are coming through southern Wisconsin from
west to east this afternoon and early evening.

Halbach

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 108 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Strong winds will develop out of the north tonight as a cold
front moves through the area. Small craft advisory conditions
will occur tonight through Thursday until a ridge of high
pressure pushes in.

Halbach

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-
     WIZ072...1 AM Thursday to 1 AM Friday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 1 AM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...1 AM Thursday to 1 AM
     Friday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee