683
FXUS63 KMKX 151526 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
926 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures again today, but return to near
  normal temperatures tonight into early next week.

- Chances (30 to 70 percent) of rain to a light wintry mix
  still expected Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 926 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The main cold front is entering the far western portions of the
forecast area, and will push east through the area late this
morning and exit the east by early this afternoon. There may be
a few sprinkles ahead of the front, though the low levels remain
fairly dry. Clouds will gradually push east and out of the area
into this afternoon. Gusty southwest to west winds will become
northwest this afternoon behind the front.

Mild temperatures ahead of the front in the lower to middle 60s
are expected into early this afternoon, before starting to drop
behind the front as cold air advection moves in. The gusty
northwest winds should linger tonight into Sunday, with the cold
air advection bringing much cooler but more seasonable
temperatures into the area. Lows tonight should drop into the
upper 20s to lower 30s, with highs Sunday in the middle to upper
40s.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 245 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Today through Sunday night:

Warm frontal boundary lifted across southern WI overnight as a
secondary low pressure traversing across Lake Superior and
northern Lake Michigan. Seeing breezy southwesterly winds and
well above normal temps early this morning and this trend will
continue through daybreak. Despite the cloud cover, 50s and 60s
are once again expected through the morning and into this
afternoon as ripple of mid-level vorticity ahead of the main
trough works its way across the area. While there is still
plenty of dry air aloft to contend with, do think there is a bit
more viability to seeing a band of sprinkles/light rain as seen
on some of the CAMs later this morning extending down across
east-central WI with PWATs creeping to around 0.7-0.9 inches
along the initial cold front. Overall not expecting
accumulations from this activity, if anything a few spots may
record a trace to maybe a hundredth or a few. However, gusty
northwesterly winds will build through the afternoon and
evening.

Otherwise, the secondary cold front as well as the colder
Canadian airmass sits back to the west strewn across the
Dakotas early this morning. This secondary cold front is progged
to swing through WI later today through the evening and bring
back near normal temps tonight with lows in the upper 20s and
into the 30s. Will continue to see the seasonal temps into
Sunday as high pressure works its way east-southeast into the
region. Afternoon temps only look to top off in the 40s
accompanied by breezy northwesterly winds and even colder
overnight lows in the 20s for Sunday night as the subsidence
settles overhead.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 245 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Monday through Friday:

A shortwave trough will move through the upper level flow
Monday and pass just to the south of the State while the sfc
low tracks from the Rockies into the Ohio River Valley. Mid
level forcing will be the main driver for snow and rain on the
northern edge of the Low. The mid to upper level will have the
available moisture for precip while the lower levels are a bit
drier by comparison. Uncertainty in the exact track of the low
and how transient the mid level lift is will play a role who
gets precip and how much it ends up being. The deterministic
Euro is lightly further south than the rest of the models.
Overall QPF and POPs have shifted slightly further north with
this run of Guidance so its not surprising to see 50% POPs sneak
back into the far southern counties. This has brought up precip
amounts just a tad, around a tenth of an inch clipping our
southwest. The better lift and moisture remain to our south
overall, but this slight shift is worth noting.

Precip type comes into question more as we get closer to
Monday. The GFS soundings favor a solution that includes more
snow while the EURO favors more rain. The NAM, CAN and SREF fall
in the middle of these two extremes. Looking at the available
soundings the culprit for these differences is where the
freezing line is. The GFS has the mid level zero degree line
much further south than the Euro. All of southern Wisconsin is
below the zero degree line for this run on the GFS. Then the
positive energy (warm air) at the sfc is then what creates a
rain/snow mix. Now this isnt a done deal it is just one model
and a sounding, but this will be something to keep an eye on as
we head into the weekend. Where is our zero degree line and does
our negative energy out way positive energy at the sfc. Still
not expecting much snow from this system as a whole regardless
of where the zero degree line is. Little to no accumulations are
expected.

High pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday bringing dry and
quiet conditions again. Then we look to Thursday and Friday for
our next system. There still appears to be some phasing issues
with troughs at 500 mb, but at the sfc we`re looking at a
Colorado Low/Panhandle Hook. Track does vary quiet a bit here,
which will impact the how much rain we will get and how long it
will last.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 926 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The main cold front will push east through the area late this
morning and exit the east by early this afternoon. There may be
a few sprinkles ahead of the front, though the low levels remain
fairly dry. Middle level and high level clouds will gradually
push east and out of the area into this afternoon. Gusty
southwest to west winds will become northwest this afternoon
behind the front. The gusty northwest winds should linger
tonight into Sunday, with mostly clear skies.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 926 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Breezy southwest to west winds will become northwest this
afternoon, as low pressure around 29.3 inches drags a cold front
across the lake. The gusty northwest winds are expected to
continue into Sunday.

The Small Craft Advisory start time for the nearshore waters
was moved up to the current time, as gusty southwest to west
winds are already affecting airport sites near the lake. This
will remain in effect until late on Sunday.

Wind gusts around 30 knots are expected during this period,
with a few gale force gusts possible in the northern third of
the open waters, as well as along the eastern lakeshore areas.
Still do not have high enough confidence for gusts exceeding
gale force for extended period, thus will continue to hold off
on gale headlines at this time.

Winds begin to ease Sunday night through Monday, as high
pressure around 30.1 inches builds into the Upper Midwest.
Another low pressure system around 29.9 inches is expected to
track from the Central Plains to south of Lake Michigan through
the middle of next week.

Wagner/Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM
     Sunday.

&&

$$

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