Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
690 FXUS63 KMKX 141527 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1027 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasingly warm and humid conditions into Wed. - Thunderstorms are looking likely for Wed afternoon and evening due to a wave of low pressure and cold front moving through srn WI. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are possible. - Looking drier and cooler for Friday if the cold front pushes and stalls further south in IL, but unsettle weather with 20-40% shower/storm chances return for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued 1027 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 High pressure over the nrn Ohio Valley will slowly move to the lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic States into Tue. Lgt swly winds and warm, moist advection will boost temps and dewpoints during this period. High temps in the middle 80s look good for today followed by mid to upper 80s on Tue. Lake breezes will occur each day but not penetrate too far inland. Gehring && .SHORT TERM... Issued 316 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Today through Tuesday night: Some lingering smoky conditions along the lakeshore early this morning, but will continue to improve through daybreak as upper- level zonal flow sets up across the region. Otherwise, looking at another quiet and dry day across southern WI. The surface high pressure to the south continues to gradually migrate eastward allowing for southwesterly winds to set up across the area. This will begin to usher in warmer temps and increasing dewpoints. Looking at highs in the mid to upper 80s today and overnight night lows dipping into the 60s. While expecting a mainly dry forecast, cannot rule out an isolate shower or two to develop later today across central WI. Main activity will be focused along the 850mb WAA as seen on the latest radar imagery across northwest WI early this morning. However, lingering subsidence from the departing high along with most of the models progging the forcing across northern WI, should keep much of the activity out of our CWA. Similar set up for Tuesday with slightly warmer temps and dewpoints creeping into the upper 60s/low 70s. So will feel muggier and warmer for Tuesday as southerly flow persists across the region. Overnight Tuesday cannot rule out seeing some showers sneak in from the northwest across the Wisconsin River Valley as a shortwave trough begins to take shape upstream across the northern Plains, however the better setup for unsettled weather will be for Wednesday. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 316 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Wednesday through Sunday: There is a chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday. Storms may be strong with heavy rainfall. A mid level shortwave moves through along with surface low pressure, which moves along a frontal boundary draped somewhere across Wisconsin. Moisture will increase on the nose of a 30 knot jet. PWs surge to 2 inches with Cape building over 2000 J and shear values of 20 to 30 knots. A frontal boundary will remain across far southern Wisconsin or northern Illinois in the wake of the surface low. Rain and storm chances may continue on Thursday depending where the frontal boundary stalls. Instability is less but forcing is provided by a weak shortwave and some lift will also be provided by the right entrance region of an upper jet. In the wake of the shortwave, northwest mid level flow will usher in slightly cooler air for Friday, making it the coolest day of the week. High pressure briefly moves overhead bringing dry weather. There are chances for rain and storms at times Saturday through Monday. Timing is uncertain this far out but waves of low pressure and mid level shortwaves move through during the period. Instability builds again on Saturday and lingers into early next week. The low level jet increases and brings warmer and more humid conditions to the area. Marquardt && .AVIATION... Issued 1027 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 VFR conditions today through Tue. Sct015-020 fair wx cumulus over far srn WI this morning will dissipate during the early afternoon. Areas of fog will be possible in the WI River Valley early Tue AM along the Sauk and Iowa County border. Sct030-040 fair wx cumulus may occur again late Tue AM into the afternoon over far srn WI. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 316 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 South to southwesterly winds gradually pick up across Lake Michigan today as high pressure pushes further east. Southerly winds continue to increase Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a developing low pressure. Low pressure looks to track across WI and central portions of Lake Michigan through Wednesday night. Will see shower and thunderstorms accompany this low as it pushes through the region. Then expecting northerly winds behind the departing low pressure system and stalling front south of the Lake for Thursday into Friday as high pressure builds across the Upper Great Lakes region. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee